@fog-blog.bsky.social
Link to Simulator here: top-goalscorers-fog.streamlit.app
September 5, 2025 at 12:44 PM
Link to Simulator here: top-goalscorers-fog.streamlit.app
Some analysis on the betfair market and sporting index markets on Top Goalscorers to pass the international break. Its a good time to evaluate the latest transfers.
fog2014.blogspot.com/2025/09/prem...
fog2014.blogspot.com/2025/09/prem...
Premier League Top Goalscorer
So I have this little app here Top Goalscorer Sim . The Setup It runs a sim on goals scored per player. The "Midpoint" is the midpoint bet...
fog2014.blogspot.com
September 5, 2025 at 12:43 PM
Some analysis on the betfair market and sporting index markets on Top Goalscorers to pass the international break. Its a good time to evaluate the latest transfers.
fog2014.blogspot.com/2025/09/prem...
fog2014.blogspot.com/2025/09/prem...
Salah 1.19
Darwin 1.20
Jones with tons of pressure at 3-1 down is 1.21
Disappointed only saw 3 pens as wanted to see market opinion on a couple other Liverpool pen takers.
Darwin 1.20
Jones with tons of pressure at 3-1 down is 1.21
Disappointed only saw 3 pens as wanted to see market opinion on a couple other Liverpool pen takers.
March 11, 2025 at 10:52 PM
Salah 1.19
Darwin 1.20
Jones with tons of pressure at 3-1 down is 1.21
Disappointed only saw 3 pens as wanted to see market opinion on a couple other Liverpool pen takers.
Darwin 1.20
Jones with tons of pressure at 3-1 down is 1.21
Disappointed only saw 3 pens as wanted to see market opinion on a couple other Liverpool pen takers.
In Rugby, when there is an advantage you see some great tries and expansive creative play. How do you get them to play like that all the time?
February 22, 2025 at 5:22 PM
In Rugby, when there is an advantage you see some great tries and expansive creative play. How do you get them to play like that all the time?
Reposted
Really interesting article & analysis. Not sure I agree with the commentary around the data - this seems to me to confirm that fatigue has almost zero effect.
Going from a 1.0047 multiplier on your shots when fresh (0-15) to a 1.0035 when tired (90+) is 🤏
Going from a 1.0047 multiplier on your shots when fresh (0-15) to a 1.0035 when tired (90+) is 🤏
I wrote a little bit about quantifying the impact of fatigue on ball-striking/finishing for players. Do players get tired in-game? Or between games without rest?
talatabont.substack.com/p/do-tired-p...
talatabont.substack.com/p/do-tired-p...
Do Tired Players Shoot Worse?
Or are elite athletes too good to care?
talatabont.substack.com
February 9, 2025 at 11:24 AM
Really interesting article & analysis. Not sure I agree with the commentary around the data - this seems to me to confirm that fatigue has almost zero effect.
Going from a 1.0047 multiplier on your shots when fresh (0-15) to a 1.0035 when tired (90+) is 🤏
Going from a 1.0047 multiplier on your shots when fresh (0-15) to a 1.0035 when tired (90+) is 🤏
Not many ppl know this but there are at least 5 liverpool players in the current squad with a better penalty record than Salah.
It will also come as a surprise that MacAllister and Nunez have exactly the same record of 12 from 13.
(stats from transfermarkt.co.uk)
It will also come as a surprise that MacAllister and Nunez have exactly the same record of 12 from 13.
(stats from transfermarkt.co.uk)
February 8, 2025 at 10:20 PM
Not many ppl know this but there are at least 5 liverpool players in the current squad with a better penalty record than Salah.
It will also come as a surprise that MacAllister and Nunez have exactly the same record of 12 from 13.
(stats from transfermarkt.co.uk)
It will also come as a surprise that MacAllister and Nunez have exactly the same record of 12 from 13.
(stats from transfermarkt.co.uk)
Reposted
There is one more thing. Our team is rolling out automatic match report creation on the website. The last weekend's Premier League games are already there. markstats.club/premier-leag...
February 5, 2025 at 7:27 PM
There is one more thing. Our team is rolling out automatic match report creation on the website. The last weekend's Premier League games are already there. markstats.club/premier-leag...
I hear ppl talking about over performing and under performing xg. This is pointless. Carragher explains it best here. The aim is to create xg, not over perform it.
I prefer some body make 3 xg per match and score twice than to make 0.5 xg on average and score once.
x.com/SkySportsPL/...
I prefer some body make 3 xg per match and score twice than to make 0.5 xg on average and score once.
x.com/SkySportsPL/...
x.com
x.com
January 19, 2025 at 1:55 PM
I hear ppl talking about over performing and under performing xg. This is pointless. Carragher explains it best here. The aim is to create xg, not over perform it.
I prefer some body make 3 xg per match and score twice than to make 0.5 xg on average and score once.
x.com/SkySportsPL/...
I prefer some body make 3 xg per match and score twice than to make 0.5 xg on average and score once.
x.com/SkySportsPL/...
Think this was an interesting point. TFW and RPW for timeform wrong and racing post wrong.
January 14, 2025 at 7:24 PM
Think this was an interesting point. TFW and RPW for timeform wrong and racing post wrong.
Reposted
The League Two Top Goalscorer race is always wonderful fun at this time of the season. We know who is leading the race, but we see loan recalls, inter-league Transfers and players sold after impressing.
🧵about who is/was in the hunt!
🧵about who is/was in the hunt!
January 13, 2025 at 7:52 PM
The League Two Top Goalscorer race is always wonderful fun at this time of the season. We know who is leading the race, but we see loan recalls, inter-league Transfers and players sold after impressing.
🧵about who is/was in the hunt!
🧵about who is/was in the hunt!
Reposted
Merry Christmas everyone.
Hope you have a wonderful day. And what a day it is, by the way..
Hope you have a wonderful day. And what a day it is, by the way..
December 25, 2024 at 10:09 AM
Merry Christmas everyone.
Hope you have a wonderful day. And what a day it is, by the way..
Hope you have a wonderful day. And what a day it is, by the way..
Reposted
Merry Christmas and thank you to all of our predicting team,@jonnyc.bsky.social & all our helpers for great work on the data preparation.
Good luck this game week everyone!
#FPL
Good luck this game week everyone!
#FPL
December 24, 2024 at 5:58 PM
Merry Christmas and thank you to all of our predicting team,@jonnyc.bsky.social & all our helpers for great work on the data preparation.
Good luck this game week everyone!
#FPL
Good luck this game week everyone!
#FPL
So these are my market based implied rankings.
December 23, 2024 at 4:25 PM
So these are my market based implied rankings.
Social media should have a “delay feed/notifications” mode so that when you are watching “Live” sports on TV you don’t get constant spoilers. My TV stream is generally 30 secs to 2 mins behind live!
November 23, 2024 at 12:54 PM
Social media should have a “delay feed/notifications” mode so that when you are watching “Live” sports on TV you don’t get constant spoilers. My TV stream is generally 30 secs to 2 mins behind live!
Kane loves a hat trick.
🏴🎩 Harry Kane bagged his fourth hat-trick of the season as Bayern eventually beat the resolve of Bavarian neighbours Augsburg.
Nediljko Labrović, the goalkeeper for the visitors, made 11 saves in the game.
Nediljko Labrović, the goalkeeper for the visitors, made 11 saves in the game.
November 22, 2024 at 9:38 PM
Kane loves a hat trick.
After evaluating the provided data, the commission may recommend new regulations for the practice
www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/betting...
www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/betting...
Massachusetts Requests Data From Sports Betting Operators on Player Limitations
The Massachusetts Gaming Commission approved a request be sent to licensed sports betting operators for player limitation data.
www.sportsbettingdime.com
November 21, 2024 at 6:19 PM
After evaluating the provided data, the commission may recommend new regulations for the practice
www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/betting...
www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/betting...
Reposted
This is really getting quite remarkable
• BlueSky user numbers have doubled in the past week and now total 3.5 million across US & UK 🚀
• Number of people deleting their X/Twitter account remains way up
And the next chart is particularly notable...
• BlueSky user numbers have doubled in the past week and now total 3.5 million across US & UK 🚀
• Number of people deleting their X/Twitter account remains way up
And the next chart is particularly notable...
November 19, 2024 at 9:39 PM
This is really getting quite remarkable
• BlueSky user numbers have doubled in the past week and now total 3.5 million across US & UK 🚀
• Number of people deleting their X/Twitter account remains way up
And the next chart is particularly notable...
• BlueSky user numbers have doubled in the past week and now total 3.5 million across US & UK 🚀
• Number of people deleting their X/Twitter account remains way up
And the next chart is particularly notable...
Who is doing the Gambling Sharps starter pack?
November 19, 2024 at 8:12 PM
Who is doing the Gambling Sharps starter pack?
Reposted
November 17, 2024 at 1:57 AM
Reposted
I've set up a Starter Pack of accounts that specialise in retro football content and have joined up to Bluesky.
Hopefully, this is of use to some of you! Have I missed anyone?
go.bsky.app/65vthe9
Hopefully, this is of use to some of you! Have I missed anyone?
go.bsky.app/65vthe9
November 16, 2024 at 8:41 AM
I've set up a Starter Pack of accounts that specialise in retro football content and have joined up to Bluesky.
Hopefully, this is of use to some of you! Have I missed anyone?
go.bsky.app/65vthe9
Hopefully, this is of use to some of you! Have I missed anyone?
go.bsky.app/65vthe9
I think this is it. I am finally Ballon dor-ed out after this one.
fog2014.blogspot.com/2024/11/ball...
fog2014.blogspot.com/2024/11/ball...
November 13, 2024 at 6:48 PM
I think this is it. I am finally Ballon dor-ed out after this one.
fog2014.blogspot.com/2024/11/ball...
fog2014.blogspot.com/2024/11/ball...
I have collected the Ballon D'Or votes and the FIFA Mens Best Player votes from 2010 to now.
It was hard as the results are published in pdf for MBP. If you are lucky you will find a scan of FF for Ballon D'Or on some blog or the wayback machine.
ballon-dor-diuum7e9gwyeqjk3ywfwmk.streamlit.app
It was hard as the results are published in pdf for MBP. If you are lucky you will find a scan of FF for Ballon D'Or on some blog or the wayback machine.
ballon-dor-diuum7e9gwyeqjk3ywfwmk.streamlit.app
ballon-dor-diuum7e9gwyeqjk3ywfwmk.streamlit.app
October 18, 2024 at 2:30 PM
I have collected the Ballon D'Or votes and the FIFA Mens Best Player votes from 2010 to now.
It was hard as the results are published in pdf for MBP. If you are lucky you will find a scan of FF for Ballon D'Or on some blog or the wayback machine.
ballon-dor-diuum7e9gwyeqjk3ywfwmk.streamlit.app
It was hard as the results are published in pdf for MBP. If you are lucky you will find a scan of FF for Ballon D'Or on some blog or the wayback machine.
ballon-dor-diuum7e9gwyeqjk3ywfwmk.streamlit.app
So I wanted to have a crude look to see if I could surface any voting biases in votes like the Ballon D'Or.
Do voters from each continent tend to vote for players from the same continent?
The Data used here incorporates Ballon D'Or voting from 2010 and FIFA Mens Best Player from 2016.
Do voters from each continent tend to vote for players from the same continent?
The Data used here incorporates Ballon D'Or voting from 2010 and FIFA Mens Best Player from 2016.
October 10, 2024 at 8:40 AM
So I wanted to have a crude look to see if I could surface any voting biases in votes like the Ballon D'Or.
Do voters from each continent tend to vote for players from the same continent?
The Data used here incorporates Ballon D'Or voting from 2010 and FIFA Mens Best Player from 2016.
Do voters from each continent tend to vote for players from the same continent?
The Data used here incorporates Ballon D'Or voting from 2010 and FIFA Mens Best Player from 2016.
Spanish Media outlet Marca "leaked" that Vini Jr already knew that he would win the 2024 Ballon D'Or.
Is that it, is it over? Vini has won?
Marca has leaked accurate information before having named Benzema the winner in 2022 on the morning of the ceremony.
Is that it, is it over? Vini has won?
Marca has leaked accurate information before having named Benzema the winner in 2022 on the morning of the ceremony.
September 29, 2024 at 9:41 AM
Spanish Media outlet Marca "leaked" that Vini Jr already knew that he would win the 2024 Ballon D'Or.
Is that it, is it over? Vini has won?
Marca has leaked accurate information before having named Benzema the winner in 2022 on the morning of the ceremony.
Is that it, is it over? Vini has won?
Marca has leaked accurate information before having named Benzema the winner in 2022 on the morning of the ceremony.
Been a move for Vini in the Ballon D'Or market with the help of some good PR originating from Marca.
www.marca.com/futbol/real-...
www.marca.com/futbol/real-...
September 25, 2024 at 7:19 AM
Been a move for Vini in the Ballon D'Or market with the help of some good PR originating from Marca.
www.marca.com/futbol/real-...
www.marca.com/futbol/real-...