@fog-blog.bsky.social
Salah 1.19
Darwin 1.20
Jones with tons of pressure at 3-1 down is 1.21
Disappointed only saw 3 pens as wanted to see market opinion on a couple other Liverpool pen takers.
Darwin 1.20
Jones with tons of pressure at 3-1 down is 1.21
Disappointed only saw 3 pens as wanted to see market opinion on a couple other Liverpool pen takers.
March 11, 2025 at 10:52 PM
Salah 1.19
Darwin 1.20
Jones with tons of pressure at 3-1 down is 1.21
Disappointed only saw 3 pens as wanted to see market opinion on a couple other Liverpool pen takers.
Darwin 1.20
Jones with tons of pressure at 3-1 down is 1.21
Disappointed only saw 3 pens as wanted to see market opinion on a couple other Liverpool pen takers.
Not many ppl know this but there are at least 5 liverpool players in the current squad with a better penalty record than Salah.
It will also come as a surprise that MacAllister and Nunez have exactly the same record of 12 from 13.
(stats from transfermarkt.co.uk)
It will also come as a surprise that MacAllister and Nunez have exactly the same record of 12 from 13.
(stats from transfermarkt.co.uk)
February 8, 2025 at 10:20 PM
Not many ppl know this but there are at least 5 liverpool players in the current squad with a better penalty record than Salah.
It will also come as a surprise that MacAllister and Nunez have exactly the same record of 12 from 13.
(stats from transfermarkt.co.uk)
It will also come as a surprise that MacAllister and Nunez have exactly the same record of 12 from 13.
(stats from transfermarkt.co.uk)
Think this was an interesting point. TFW and RPW for timeform wrong and racing post wrong.
January 14, 2025 at 7:24 PM
Think this was an interesting point. TFW and RPW for timeform wrong and racing post wrong.
So these are my market based implied rankings.
December 23, 2024 at 4:25 PM
So these are my market based implied rankings.
I think this is it. I am finally Ballon dor-ed out after this one.
fog2014.blogspot.com/2024/11/ball...
fog2014.blogspot.com/2024/11/ball...
November 13, 2024 at 6:48 PM
I think this is it. I am finally Ballon dor-ed out after this one.
fog2014.blogspot.com/2024/11/ball...
fog2014.blogspot.com/2024/11/ball...
I think you can discover some interesting bits with this. Eg, in 2010 the Ballon D'Or vote was different than today.
1. Media, Coach & Captains all voted, now its just Media.
2. All countries voted, now only the top 100 FIFA ranked are invited.
So you can see who would have won ...
1. Media, Coach & Captains all voted, now its just Media.
2. All countries voted, now only the top 100 FIFA ranked are invited.
So you can see who would have won ...
October 18, 2024 at 2:36 PM
I think you can discover some interesting bits with this. Eg, in 2010 the Ballon D'Or vote was different than today.
1. Media, Coach & Captains all voted, now its just Media.
2. All countries voted, now only the top 100 FIFA ranked are invited.
So you can see who would have won ...
1. Media, Coach & Captains all voted, now its just Media.
2. All countries voted, now only the top 100 FIFA ranked are invited.
So you can see who would have won ...
And some of those are easy. Now imagine the different spelling of the number one journalist in Palestine where they have given him a new spelling to his name nearly every year.
There is not much information on some of these random journos on the web to verify if they are indeed the same person.
There is not much information on some of these random journos on the web to verify if they are indeed the same person.
October 18, 2024 at 2:33 PM
And some of those are easy. Now imagine the different spelling of the number one journalist in Palestine where they have given him a new spelling to his name nearly every year.
There is not much information on some of these random journos on the web to verify if they are indeed the same person.
There is not much information on some of these random journos on the web to verify if they are indeed the same person.
Here are some more examples of cleanup I have had to do on Sadio Mane as the OCR struggled with the poor quality scans that circulate the web of the France Football voting results.
October 18, 2024 at 2:32 PM
Here are some more examples of cleanup I have had to do on Sadio Mane as the OCR struggled with the poor quality scans that circulate the web of the France Football voting results.
Could easily be wrong
I did the matrix out like this for expected and observed and calculate (o-e)^2/e
Then sum them all up
The big discrepancy is coming from Africa upvoting Africa, that alone is e=459 and o=824 given 289 for the (o-e)^2/e
I did the matrix out like this for expected and observed and calculate (o-e)^2/e
Then sum them all up
The big discrepancy is coming from Africa upvoting Africa, that alone is e=459 and o=824 given 289 for the (o-e)^2/e
October 11, 2024 at 9:03 AM
Could easily be wrong
I did the matrix out like this for expected and observed and calculate (o-e)^2/e
Then sum them all up
The big discrepancy is coming from Africa upvoting Africa, that alone is e=459 and o=824 given 289 for the (o-e)^2/e
I did the matrix out like this for expected and observed and calculate (o-e)^2/e
Then sum them all up
The big discrepancy is coming from Africa upvoting Africa, that alone is e=459 and o=824 given 289 for the (o-e)^2/e
A similar note on "N. America":
N. America represents only one single player. Only one single player from N. America has received votes in the Ballon D'Or or FIFA MBP poll since 2010.
That was Keylor Navos of Costa Rica.
N. America represents only one single player. Only one single player from N. America has received votes in the Ballon D'Or or FIFA MBP poll since 2010.
That was Keylor Navos of Costa Rica.
October 10, 2024 at 8:52 AM
A similar note on "N. America":
N. America represents only one single player. Only one single player from N. America has received votes in the Ballon D'Or or FIFA MBP poll since 2010.
That was Keylor Navos of Costa Rica.
N. America represents only one single player. Only one single player from N. America has received votes in the Ballon D'Or or FIFA MBP poll since 2010.
That was Keylor Navos of Costa Rica.
A note on "Asia":
So I assign it to Asia but in reality it is just Son and Kim Min jae both of Korea.
So I assign it to Asia but in reality it is just Son and Kim Min jae both of Korea.
October 10, 2024 at 8:51 AM
A note on "Asia":
So I assign it to Asia but in reality it is just Son and Kim Min jae both of Korea.
So I assign it to Asia but in reality it is just Son and Kim Min jae both of Korea.
Just a note on the "None":
In past votes like 2012 Ballon D'Or have accepted "Invalid votes". So they don't have a continent associated. I assign them "None".
I'd prefer to throw them out but they have been used to count the official results so I leave them in.
web.archive.org/web/20130120...
In past votes like 2012 Ballon D'Or have accepted "Invalid votes". So they don't have a continent associated. I assign them "None".
I'd prefer to throw them out but they have been used to count the official results so I leave them in.
web.archive.org/web/20130120...
October 10, 2024 at 8:49 AM
Just a note on the "None":
In past votes like 2012 Ballon D'Or have accepted "Invalid votes". So they don't have a continent associated. I assign them "None".
I'd prefer to throw them out but they have been used to count the official results so I leave them in.
web.archive.org/web/20130120...
In past votes like 2012 Ballon D'Or have accepted "Invalid votes". So they don't have a continent associated. I assign them "None".
I'd prefer to throw them out but they have been used to count the official results so I leave them in.
web.archive.org/web/20130120...
What the numbers show is how much more voters from each continent voted for players from each continent.
It's a comparison to a "Fair" percentage that you would expect an unbiased voter to vote. I estimate the fair based on the what the total population voted without any further breakdown.
It's a comparison to a "Fair" percentage that you would expect an unbiased voter to vote. I estimate the fair based on the what the total population voted without any further breakdown.
October 10, 2024 at 8:41 AM
What the numbers show is how much more voters from each continent voted for players from each continent.
It's a comparison to a "Fair" percentage that you would expect an unbiased voter to vote. I estimate the fair based on the what the total population voted without any further breakdown.
It's a comparison to a "Fair" percentage that you would expect an unbiased voter to vote. I estimate the fair based on the what the total population voted without any further breakdown.
So I wanted to have a crude look to see if I could surface any voting biases in votes like the Ballon D'Or.
Do voters from each continent tend to vote for players from the same continent?
The Data used here incorporates Ballon D'Or voting from 2010 and FIFA Mens Best Player from 2016.
Do voters from each continent tend to vote for players from the same continent?
The Data used here incorporates Ballon D'Or voting from 2010 and FIFA Mens Best Player from 2016.
October 10, 2024 at 8:40 AM
So I wanted to have a crude look to see if I could surface any voting biases in votes like the Ballon D'Or.
Do voters from each continent tend to vote for players from the same continent?
The Data used here incorporates Ballon D'Or voting from 2010 and FIFA Mens Best Player from 2016.
Do voters from each continent tend to vote for players from the same continent?
The Data used here incorporates Ballon D'Or voting from 2010 and FIFA Mens Best Player from 2016.
Gives 9% chance he has 100% won it, 90% chance his chance has gone up to 90% and 1% he is still 60%.
Would give 1.104 in decimal odds, which isn't far from where the market has settled.
Play around with the Scenario probs to see what you make it.
Would give 1.104 in decimal odds, which isn't far from where the market has settled.
Play around with the Scenario probs to see what you make it.
September 29, 2024 at 9:54 AM
Gives 9% chance he has 100% won it, 90% chance his chance has gone up to 90% and 1% he is still 60%.
Would give 1.104 in decimal odds, which isn't far from where the market has settled.
Play around with the Scenario probs to see what you make it.
Would give 1.104 in decimal odds, which isn't far from where the market has settled.
Play around with the Scenario probs to see what you make it.
So it's a little early to expect all voting is done.
Below seems to confirm this.
Below seems to confirm this.
September 29, 2024 at 9:47 AM
So it's a little early to expect all voting is done.
Below seems to confirm this.
Below seems to confirm this.
We have some information on when the vote ends from 2018 and 2019.
In 2018 the vote apparently ended 32 days after the nominations and 23 days before the ceremony.
In 2019, it 19 days after (almost 3 weeks) and 23 days before.
This leak about Vini came 19 days after noms and 35 days before.
In 2018 the vote apparently ended 32 days after the nominations and 23 days before the ceremony.
In 2019, it 19 days after (almost 3 weeks) and 23 days before.
This leak about Vini came 19 days after noms and 35 days before.
September 29, 2024 at 9:45 AM
We have some information on when the vote ends from 2018 and 2019.
In 2018 the vote apparently ended 32 days after the nominations and 23 days before the ceremony.
In 2019, it 19 days after (almost 3 weeks) and 23 days before.
This leak about Vini came 19 days after noms and 35 days before.
In 2018 the vote apparently ended 32 days after the nominations and 23 days before the ceremony.
In 2019, it 19 days after (almost 3 weeks) and 23 days before.
This leak about Vini came 19 days after noms and 35 days before.
There have been multiple other leaks (see table) from other sources that also proved accurate, but usually a few of days before the ceremony or the morning of.
35 days before is a bit unusual.
35 days before is a bit unusual.
September 29, 2024 at 9:42 AM
There have been multiple other leaks (see table) from other sources that also proved accurate, but usually a few of days before the ceremony or the morning of.
35 days before is a bit unusual.
35 days before is a bit unusual.
In the end only a few votes separated them.
In 2023/24 Vini has stepped it up with La Liga, CL and even CL POTT and Rodri has slipped back where it matters.
We can see the history of this award that the Champions League is absolutely a key consideration.
In 2023/24 Vini has stepped it up with La Liga, CL and even CL POTT and Rodri has slipped back where it matters.
We can see the history of this award that the Champions League is absolutely a key consideration.
September 25, 2024 at 7:27 AM
In the end only a few votes separated them.
In 2023/24 Vini has stepped it up with La Liga, CL and even CL POTT and Rodri has slipped back where it matters.
We can see the history of this award that the Champions League is absolutely a key consideration.
In 2023/24 Vini has stepped it up with La Liga, CL and even CL POTT and Rodri has slipped back where it matters.
We can see the history of this award that the Champions League is absolutely a key consideration.
Compare his 22/23 achievements side by side with Rodri, you wonder how they finished so close in the 2023 Ballon D'Or poll.
Real Madrid had a poor 22/23 - they didn't even with La Liga which is expected of them.
Meanwhile Man City won the treble with Rodri recognised as the POTT for the CL.
Real Madrid had a poor 22/23 - they didn't even with La Liga which is expected of them.
Meanwhile Man City won the treble with Rodri recognised as the POTT for the CL.
September 25, 2024 at 7:27 AM
Compare his 22/23 achievements side by side with Rodri, you wonder how they finished so close in the 2023 Ballon D'Or poll.
Real Madrid had a poor 22/23 - they didn't even with La Liga which is expected of them.
Meanwhile Man City won the treble with Rodri recognised as the POTT for the CL.
Real Madrid had a poor 22/23 - they didn't even with La Liga which is expected of them.
Meanwhile Man City won the treble with Rodri recognised as the POTT for the CL.
Been a move for Vini in the Ballon D'Or market with the help of some good PR originating from Marca.
www.marca.com/futbol/real-...
www.marca.com/futbol/real-...
September 25, 2024 at 7:19 AM
Been a move for Vini in the Ballon D'Or market with the help of some good PR originating from Marca.
www.marca.com/futbol/real-...
www.marca.com/futbol/real-...
But Van Dijk does give some hope.
Virgil van Dijk hasn't won it but in 2019 pushed Messi very close. The difference only 7 pts. Indeed I think Van Dijk would have won it with the reduced jury of the current award (only top 100 fifa ranked nations now get a vote).
Virgil van Dijk hasn't won it but in 2019 pushed Messi very close. The difference only 7 pts. Indeed I think Van Dijk would have won it with the reduced jury of the current award (only top 100 fifa ranked nations now get a vote).
September 20, 2024 at 12:52 PM
But Van Dijk does give some hope.
Virgil van Dijk hasn't won it but in 2019 pushed Messi very close. The difference only 7 pts. Indeed I think Van Dijk would have won it with the reduced jury of the current award (only top 100 fifa ranked nations now get a vote).
Virgil van Dijk hasn't won it but in 2019 pushed Messi very close. The difference only 7 pts. Indeed I think Van Dijk would have won it with the reduced jury of the current award (only top 100 fifa ranked nations now get a vote).
But its not that he has simply won both. He has been key to both in particular the CL even contributing a goal in the Final.
But look at Sergio Ramos in 2014 (key goals, records = <1% of vote):
But look at Sergio Ramos in 2014 (key goals, records = <1% of vote):
September 20, 2024 at 12:46 PM
But its not that he has simply won both. He has been key to both in particular the CL even contributing a goal in the Final.
But look at Sergio Ramos in 2014 (key goals, records = <1% of vote):
But look at Sergio Ramos in 2014 (key goals, records = <1% of vote):
There was a bit of a move for him in the market last week. Backed down to 10.5 from 100 causing many books to cut him to 8/1 too.
However:
1. He has since drifted back out.
2. A relatively small bet is all it took to move his price that much in an illiquid market.
However:
1. He has since drifted back out.
2. A relatively small bet is all it took to move his price that much in an illiquid market.
September 20, 2024 at 12:42 PM
There was a bit of a move for him in the market last week. Backed down to 10.5 from 100 causing many books to cut him to 8/1 too.
However:
1. He has since drifted back out.
2. A relatively small bet is all it took to move his price that much in an illiquid market.
However:
1. He has since drifted back out.
2. A relatively small bet is all it took to move his price that much in an illiquid market.
Showing all Euro POTTs and how they ranked in the Ballon D'Or vote for the same year. (Not showing full rankings, just enough to include the Euro POTT).
In a normal year, players like Zagorakis and Donnarumma are getting close to zero points.
Roughly, the Euro POTT is worth about 30-40 points?
In a normal year, players like Zagorakis and Donnarumma are getting close to zero points.
Roughly, the Euro POTT is worth about 30-40 points?
September 14, 2024 at 9:26 AM
Showing all Euro POTTs and how they ranked in the Ballon D'Or vote for the same year. (Not showing full rankings, just enough to include the Euro POTT).
In a normal year, players like Zagorakis and Donnarumma are getting close to zero points.
Roughly, the Euro POTT is worth about 30-40 points?
In a normal year, players like Zagorakis and Donnarumma are getting close to zero points.
Roughly, the Euro POTT is worth about 30-40 points?