Fred Oswald
@foswald.bsky.social
1.4K followers 890 following 73 posts
I-O psychologist (what is that? http://siop.org); Scrabble(R) player; aspiring raconteur; likes/retweets may-or-may-not-be = endorsement
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Reposted by Fred Oswald
richlucas.bsky.social
Interested in models used to estimate lagged effects in panel data? We (@rebiweidmann.bsky.social, Hyewon Yang) have a new paper looking at patterns of stability and their implications for bias and model choice: osf.io/preprints/ps... [1/x]
OSF
osf.io
Reposted by Fred Oswald
foswald.bsky.social
Psychological Methods invites early-career psychologists to apply to be a 2026 Editorial Fellow. This year kicked off our EF program -- it was enriching for the EFs and rewarding for everyone involved. Let's do it again!

For details:
www.apa.org/pubs/journal...

@apajournals.bsky.social
www.apa.org
foswald.bsky.social
The Department of Psychological Sciences at Rice University, partnering with the Center for African and African American Studies, invites applications for a tenure-track position at the rank of associate or full professor to begin July 1, 2026.

apply.interfolio.com/172829

@ricesocsci.bsky.social
Apply - Interfolio {{$ctrl.$state.data.pageTitle}} - Apply - Interfolio
apply.interfolio.com
foswald.bsky.social
this just out

APA Journals Policy on Generative AI: Additional Guidance
www.apa.org/pubs/journal... via @apajournals.bsky.social
www.apa.org
foswald.bsky.social
as editor, I'm actually signing the petition myself :)

==
Adopt Registered Reports at Psychological Methods - Sign the Petition! chng.it/wszLWM4KPX
==

e.g., look forward to exploring options for preregistration for the journal

@apajournals.bsky.social
@akmontoya.bsky.social
Sign the Petition
Adopt Registered Reports at Psychological Methods
chng.it
foswald.bsky.social
This is a really great paper - thank you, @dingdingpeng.the100.ci and @vincentab.bsky.social!
Reposted by Fred Oswald
dingdingpeng.the100.ci
Ever stared at a table of regression coefficients & wondered what you're doing with your life?

Very excited to share this gentle introduction to another way of making sense of statistical models (w @vincentab.bsky.social)
Preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf...
Website: j-rohrer.github.io/marginal-psy...
Models as Prediction Machines: How to Convert Confusing Coefficients into Clear Quantities

Abstract
Psychological researchers usually make sense of regression models by interpreting coefficient estimates directly. This works well enough for simple linear models, but is more challenging for more complex models with, for example, categorical variables, interactions, non-linearities, and hierarchical structures. Here, we introduce an alternative approach to making sense of statistical models. The central idea is to abstract away from the mechanics of estimation, and to treat models as “counterfactual prediction machines,” which are subsequently queried to estimate quantities and conduct tests that matter substantively. This workflow is model-agnostic; it can be applied in a consistent fashion to draw causal or descriptive inference from a wide range of models. We illustrate how to implement this workflow with the marginaleffects package, which supports over 100 different classes of models in R and Python, and present two worked examples. These examples show how the workflow can be applied across designs (e.g., observational study, randomized experiment) to answer different research questions (e.g., associations, causal effects, effect heterogeneity) while facing various challenges (e.g., controlling for confounders in a flexible manner, modelling ordinal outcomes, and interpreting non-linear models).
Figure illustrating model predictions. On the X-axis the predictor, annual gross income in Euro. On the Y-axis the outcome, predicted life satisfaction. A solid line marks the curve of predictions on which individual data points are marked as model-implied outcomes at incomes of interest. Comparing two such predictions gives us a comparison. We can also fit a tangent to the line of predictions, which illustrates the slope at any given point of the curve. A figure illustrating various ways to include age as a predictor in a model. On the x-axis age (predictor), on the y-axis the outcome (model-implied importance of friends, including confidence intervals).

Illustrated are 
1. age as a categorical predictor, resultings in the predictions bouncing around a lot with wide confidence intervals
2. age as a linear predictor, which forces a straight line through the data points that has a very tight confidence band and
3. age splines, which lies somewhere in between as it smoothly follows the data but has more uncertainty than the straight line.
Reposted by Fred Oswald
w-joel-schneider.bsky.social
Now on CRAN, ggdiagram is a #ggplot2 extension that draws diagrams programmatically in #Rstats. Allows for precise control in how objects, labels, and equations are placed in relation to each other.
wjschne.github.io/ggdiagram/ar...
An arrow with a LaTeX equation Trigonometric functions and a unit circle A bivariate change model with structured residuals A hierarchical model of cognitive abilities
Reposted by Fred Oswald
Reposted by Fred Oswald
akmontoya.bsky.social
If you just got an email from APA encouraging you to come to this session, YOU SHOULD! Because the "Open Science and Methodology panel member" is ME! Come say hi! Learn about registered reports, and other awesome open science things at APA!
foswald.bsky.social
they need to change their seed every morning :)
Reposted by Fred Oswald
umpamdk.bsky.social
The U-M Dept of Psych is hiring! We seek a tenure-track scholar exploring human cognition with generative AI—pushing the boundaries between biological and artificial minds. Apply at lnkd.in/eF2EXmJz
foswald.bsky.social
Speer, A. B., Oswald, F. L., & Putka, D. J. (2025). Reliability Evidence for AI-Based Scores in Organizational Contexts: Applying Lessons Learned From Psychometrics. Organizational Research Methods
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
journals.sagepub.com
Reposted by Fred Oswald
mcxfrank.bsky.social
The new National Academies report on the Science and Practice of Team Science is out today: nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/2904...

I was very excited to be a part of this group in order to discuss the role of open science in team science.
The Science and Practice of Team Science
Read online, download a free PDF, or order a copy in print.
nap.nationalacademies.org
foswald.bsky.social
My most egocentric table by far :D

(Oswald, 2020; from Big Data in Psychological Research, S. E. Woo, L. Tay, and R. W. Proctor, Eds.)
foswald.bsky.social
And to all I-O psychologists, my support for the Society for Industrial and Organizational Psychology (SIOP) remains stronger than ever :) n/n
foswald.bsky.social
...supporting and developing our graduate students, collaborating on interesting research projects, strengthening our networks within and outside the university -- and being kind and thoughtful colleagues. I wish the department continued success and look forward to visiting in the future! 4/n
foswald.bsky.social
As excited as I am for this new chapter in my career, I will dearly and deeply miss all my psychology colleagues at Rice University, who over the past 17 years have positively influenced virtually all aspects of my professional life... 3/n
foswald.bsky.social
As an industrial-organizational psychologist, I will join a highly collaborative and very productive group of scholars who span multiple disciplines (e.g., education, psychology, economics, and computer science). 2/n
foswald.bsky.social
Big professional and personal news to share: I've accepted a position as a professor at the UCI School of Education, effective January 2026, continuing my research on measuring skills relevant to education and the workforce. 1/n
Reposted by Fred Oswald
iasliu.bsky.social
🚨We’re hiring postdocs in Computational Social Science!
📍The Swedish Excellence Centre for Computational Social Science (SweCSS)
📅 Apply by June 3
🔗 liu.se/en/work-at-l...
marckeuschnigg.bsky.social
We are hiring postdocs in Computational Social Science
📍SweCSS, Norrköping, Sweden
⏰Deadline June 3
🔗https://liu.se/en/work-at-liu/vacancies/26854
Please apply // help us spread the word
Norrköping campus at sunset
foswald.bsky.social
Join @sbs.nationalacademies.org for a webinar series on #Human-AI Teaming (HAT) to explore the future of human-AI partnerships.

The first session is next week on May 28 (1-2:30pm ET). Experts will explore effective collaboration with #AI.

Register: events.nationalacademies.org/45078_05-202...
Future Trajectories of Human-AI Collaboration and Teaming
Register for this event from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.
events.nationalacademies.org