FPL_PB
@fpl-pb.bsky.social
FPL enthusiast in 🇨🇦 playing since 2016.
Trying to dabble into the analytical approach.
Trying to dabble into the analytical approach.
Reposted by FPL_PB
I went back and calculated #FPL Assistant Manager points for every PL game over the last 8 seasons (and combined with pre-game market WDL odds)
These are the top 100 AM scores for games played in GW24-38 between 2016-7 and 2023-24 👇
And a few quick observations below 🧵
These are the top 100 AM scores for games played in GW24-38 between 2016-7 and 2023-24 👇
And a few quick observations below 🧵
January 16, 2025 at 12:57 PM
I went back and calculated #FPL Assistant Manager points for every PL game over the last 8 seasons (and combined with pre-game market WDL odds)
These are the top 100 AM scores for games played in GW24-38 between 2016-7 and 2023-24 👇
And a few quick observations below 🧵
These are the top 100 AM scores for games played in GW24-38 between 2016-7 and 2023-24 👇
And a few quick observations below 🧵
Reposted by FPL_PB
Each Premier League team's projected goals per game for the rest of the season, via outright spread betting markets 👇
January 9, 2025 at 8:53 PM
Each Premier League team's projected goals per game for the rest of the season, via outright spread betting markets 👇
Reposted by FPL_PB
Quite a lot of movement in TOT-NEW odds this evening
Newcastle now 54% win odds (from 43% midweek), latest implied goals of Tottenham 1.60-2.35 Newcastle
Final updates tomorrow as usual - interesting to see how this one develops
Newcastle now 54% win odds (from 43% midweek), latest implied goals of Tottenham 1.60-2.35 Newcastle
Final updates tomorrow as usual - interesting to see how this one develops
💹 PL GW20 matchups
First look at projected goals and clean sheet odds for the weekend round of Premier League games, via spread betting markets
First look at projected goals and clean sheet odds for the weekend round of Premier League games, via spread betting markets
January 3, 2025 at 10:10 PM
Quite a lot of movement in TOT-NEW odds this evening
Newcastle now 54% win odds (from 43% midweek), latest implied goals of Tottenham 1.60-2.35 Newcastle
Final updates tomorrow as usual - interesting to see how this one develops
Newcastle now 54% win odds (from 43% midweek), latest implied goals of Tottenham 1.60-2.35 Newcastle
Final updates tomorrow as usual - interesting to see how this one develops
Reposted by FPL_PB
GW19 Simulated Goals and Assists 📊⚽↪️
Simulated GW19 thousands of times and here is where player production came from.
Note: this was not done today so not factoring in suspensions, post-GW18 team strengths, etc. #FPL
Simulated GW19 thousands of times and here is where player production came from.
Note: this was not done today so not factoring in suspensions, post-GW18 team strengths, etc. #FPL
December 27, 2024 at 12:11 PM
GW19 Simulated Goals and Assists 📊⚽↪️
Simulated GW19 thousands of times and here is where player production came from.
Note: this was not done today so not factoring in suspensions, post-GW18 team strengths, etc. #FPL
Simulated GW19 thousands of times and here is where player production came from.
Note: this was not done today so not factoring in suspensions, post-GW18 team strengths, etc. #FPL
Reposted by FPL_PB
💹 PL GW19 matchups
First look at projected goals and clean sheet odds for the next round of Premier League games, via spread betting markets
First look at projected goals and clean sheet odds for the next round of Premier League games, via spread betting markets
December 27, 2024 at 10:37 AM
💹 PL GW19 matchups
First look at projected goals and clean sheet odds for the next round of Premier League games, via spread betting markets
First look at projected goals and clean sheet odds for the next round of Premier League games, via spread betting markets
Reposted by FPL_PB
F I X T U R E S 🗓️
#GW17 - to - GW25
🇪🇺 Euro Group matches
🧃 Carabao Cup SF1 & SF3
🏆 FA Cup R3 & R4
#theFPLmatrix
💚💛❤️
#GW17 - to - GW25
🇪🇺 Euro Group matches
🧃 Carabao Cup SF1 & SF3
🏆 FA Cup R3 & R4
#theFPLmatrix
💚💛❤️
December 20, 2024 at 10:40 PM
F I X T U R E S 🗓️
#GW17 - to - GW25
🇪🇺 Euro Group matches
🧃 Carabao Cup SF1 & SF3
🏆 FA Cup R3 & R4
#theFPLmatrix
💚💛❤️
#GW17 - to - GW25
🇪🇺 Euro Group matches
🧃 Carabao Cup SF1 & SF3
🏆 FA Cup R3 & R4
#theFPLmatrix
💚💛❤️
Reposted by FPL_PB
December 20, 2024 at 10:39 PM
Reposted by FPL_PB
🐇HopON🐇HopOFF🐇matrix🐇
🗓️ #GW17 - to - GW25
🟩 highlighting HOME and AWAY
matches versus last seasons
bottom 12/promoted sides
#hopONhopOFFmatrix #FPL
🗓️ #GW17 - to - GW25
🟩 highlighting HOME and AWAY
matches versus last seasons
bottom 12/promoted sides
#hopONhopOFFmatrix #FPL
December 20, 2024 at 10:38 PM
🐇HopON🐇HopOFF🐇matrix🐇
🗓️ #GW17 - to - GW25
🟩 highlighting HOME and AWAY
matches versus last seasons
bottom 12/promoted sides
#hopONhopOFFmatrix #FPL
🗓️ #GW17 - to - GW25
🟩 highlighting HOME and AWAY
matches versus last seasons
bottom 12/promoted sides
#hopONhopOFFmatrix #FPL
Reposted by FPL_PB
The ©️A P T A I N and
P R E M I U M matrix 🖊️
🗓️ #GW17 - to - GW25
🟪 highlighting key CAPTAIN and PREMIUM player options HOME and AWAY matches versus last seasons bottom 12/promoted sides 👀
#CaptaincyMatrix #FPL
💚💛❤️
P R E M I U M matrix 🖊️
🗓️ #GW17 - to - GW25
🟪 highlighting key CAPTAIN and PREMIUM player options HOME and AWAY matches versus last seasons bottom 12/promoted sides 👀
#CaptaincyMatrix #FPL
💚💛❤️
December 18, 2024 at 9:07 PM
The ©️A P T A I N and
P R E M I U M matrix 🖊️
🗓️ #GW17 - to - GW25
🟪 highlighting key CAPTAIN and PREMIUM player options HOME and AWAY matches versus last seasons bottom 12/promoted sides 👀
#CaptaincyMatrix #FPL
💚💛❤️
P R E M I U M matrix 🖊️
🗓️ #GW17 - to - GW25
🟪 highlighting key CAPTAIN and PREMIUM player options HOME and AWAY matches versus last seasons bottom 12/promoted sides 👀
#CaptaincyMatrix #FPL
💚💛❤️
Reposted by FPL_PB
💹 #FPL GW17 matchups
First look at projected goals and clean sheet odds for this weekend's round of Premier League games, via spread betting markets
First look at projected goals and clean sheet odds for this weekend's round of Premier League games, via spread betting markets
December 18, 2024 at 8:47 AM
💹 #FPL GW17 matchups
First look at projected goals and clean sheet odds for this weekend's round of Premier League games, via spread betting markets
First look at projected goals and clean sheet odds for this weekend's round of Premier League games, via spread betting markets
Reposted by FPL_PB
💹 PL: GW16 player goal projections
Top projected scorers for the weekend's round of PL games, via spread betting markets (all markets assume a start)
Top projected scorers for the weekend's round of PL games, via spread betting markets (all markets assume a start)
December 13, 2024 at 1:51 PM
💹 PL: GW16 player goal projections
Top projected scorers for the weekend's round of PL games, via spread betting markets (all markets assume a start)
Top projected scorers for the weekend's round of PL games, via spread betting markets (all markets assume a start)
Reposted by FPL_PB
🚨 Start planning your Assistant Manager chip 🚨
The Assistant Manager chip is now live on the FPL Team website ready for you to play around with!
Includes full functionality as revealed by FPL themselves.
Get planning now at fpl.team/plan
#FPL | #FPLCommunity
The Assistant Manager chip is now live on the FPL Team website ready for you to play around with!
Includes full functionality as revealed by FPL themselves.
Get planning now at fpl.team/plan
#FPL | #FPLCommunity
December 13, 2024 at 3:19 PM
🚨 Start planning your Assistant Manager chip 🚨
The Assistant Manager chip is now live on the FPL Team website ready for you to play around with!
Includes full functionality as revealed by FPL themselves.
Get planning now at fpl.team/plan
#FPL | #FPLCommunity
The Assistant Manager chip is now live on the FPL Team website ready for you to play around with!
Includes full functionality as revealed by FPL themselves.
Get planning now at fpl.team/plan
#FPL | #FPLCommunity
Reposted by FPL_PB
Potential for a double Gameweek 24…
December 12, 2024 at 3:47 PM
Potential for a double Gameweek 24…
Reposted by FPL_PB
I did some elaborations on the Assistant Manager EVs posted by @analyticf.pl below. Taking the current difference in league places, I have calculated the effective EV for each fixture for the home and away team (1/.
I calculated the EVs for the Assistant Manager in each fixture.
For now, not factored in probability of being 5 places below so:
Pts = EV if they not 5+ places below
Pts++ = EV if they are 5+ places below
From my team strength model
For now, not factored in probability of being 5 places below so:
Pts = EV if they not 5+ places below
Pts++ = EV if they are 5+ places below
From my team strength model
Assistant Manager EV
docs.google.com
December 12, 2024 at 3:33 PM
I did some elaborations on the Assistant Manager EVs posted by @analyticf.pl below. Taking the current difference in league places, I have calculated the effective EV for each fixture for the home and away team (1/.
Reposted by FPL_PB
Working non-stop since the announcement and have created predicted points live tables for the #FPL Assistant Manager chip.
- GW24 - 38 Points (no bonus)
- GW24 - 38 Points (with bonus)
- Rolling 3GW totals
Currently in beta for Members testing/feedback (www.elevenify.com/p/members).
Time to rest!
- GW24 - 38 Points (no bonus)
- GW24 - 38 Points (with bonus)
- Rolling 3GW totals
Currently in beta for Members testing/feedback (www.elevenify.com/p/members).
Time to rest!
December 11, 2024 at 10:42 PM
Working non-stop since the announcement and have created predicted points live tables for the #FPL Assistant Manager chip.
- GW24 - 38 Points (no bonus)
- GW24 - 38 Points (with bonus)
- Rolling 3GW totals
Currently in beta for Members testing/feedback (www.elevenify.com/p/members).
Time to rest!
- GW24 - 38 Points (no bonus)
- GW24 - 38 Points (with bonus)
- Rolling 3GW totals
Currently in beta for Members testing/feedback (www.elevenify.com/p/members).
Time to rest!
Reposted by FPL_PB
I calculated the EVs for the Assistant Manager in each fixture.
For now, not factored in probability of being 5 places below so:
Pts = EV if they not 5+ places below
Pts++ = EV if they are 5+ places below
From my team strength model
For now, not factored in probability of being 5 places below so:
Pts = EV if they not 5+ places below
Pts++ = EV if they are 5+ places below
From my team strength model
Assistant Manager EV
docs.google.com
December 11, 2024 at 6:52 PM
I calculated the EVs for the Assistant Manager in each fixture.
For now, not factored in probability of being 5 places below so:
Pts = EV if they not 5+ places below
Pts++ = EV if they are 5+ places below
From my team strength model
For now, not factored in probability of being 5 places below so:
Pts = EV if they not 5+ places below
Pts++ = EV if they are 5+ places below
From my team strength model
Reposted by FPL_PB
💹 #FPL GW16 matchups
First look at projected goals and clean sheet odds for this weekend's round of Premier League games, via spread betting markets
First look at projected goals and clean sheet odds for this weekend's round of Premier League games, via spread betting markets
December 11, 2024 at 9:03 AM
💹 #FPL GW16 matchups
First look at projected goals and clean sheet odds for this weekend's round of Premier League games, via spread betting markets
First look at projected goals and clean sheet odds for this weekend's round of Premier League games, via spread betting markets
Reposted by FPL_PB
FPL Towers this season:
- Started with the most enjoyable asset pricing in recent years by far
- Made changes to FT & chip rules which have made FPL planning much more enjoyable and interesting
- Introduced a new chip which is more ambitious & strategically fun than any suggestions I've seen
- Started with the most enjoyable asset pricing in recent years by far
- Made changes to FT & chip rules which have made FPL planning much more enjoyable and interesting
- Introduced a new chip which is more ambitious & strategically fun than any suggestions I've seen
December 11, 2024 at 5:21 PM
FPL Towers this season:
- Started with the most enjoyable asset pricing in recent years by far
- Made changes to FT & chip rules which have made FPL planning much more enjoyable and interesting
- Introduced a new chip which is more ambitious & strategically fun than any suggestions I've seen
- Started with the most enjoyable asset pricing in recent years by far
- Made changes to FT & chip rules which have made FPL planning much more enjoyable and interesting
- Introduced a new chip which is more ambitious & strategically fun than any suggestions I've seen
Reposted by FPL_PB
Will get the new chip added in stages over the next weeks, expect it will look something like this:
1- Projections for managers added to site (by start of next week)
2- Enable using chip & picking manager (by end the of next week)
3- Link into Linear Optimiser (over Christmas)
1- Projections for managers added to site (by start of next week)
2- Enable using chip & picking manager (by end the of next week)
3- Link into Linear Optimiser (over Christmas)
December 11, 2024 at 3:25 PM
Will get the new chip added in stages over the next weeks, expect it will look something like this:
1- Projections for managers added to site (by start of next week)
2- Enable using chip & picking manager (by end the of next week)
3- Link into Linear Optimiser (over Christmas)
1- Projections for managers added to site (by start of next week)
2- Enable using chip & picking manager (by end the of next week)
3- Link into Linear Optimiser (over Christmas)
Reposted by FPL_PB
#FPL My thoughts and feelings on the new shiny Assistant Manager chip. It's intriguing to have a new challenge, but I find it annoying.
1️⃣ It requires a new slot in our "Knapsack problem" of 15 players, taking ITB and 3-player limits into account. Decision-making just got unnecessarily harder.
1️⃣ It requires a new slot in our "Knapsack problem" of 15 players, taking ITB and 3-player limits into account. Decision-making just got unnecessarily harder.
December 11, 2024 at 4:20 PM
#FPL My thoughts and feelings on the new shiny Assistant Manager chip. It's intriguing to have a new challenge, but I find it annoying.
1️⃣ It requires a new slot in our "Knapsack problem" of 15 players, taking ITB and 3-player limits into account. Decision-making just got unnecessarily harder.
1️⃣ It requires a new slot in our "Knapsack problem" of 15 players, taking ITB and 3-player limits into account. Decision-making just got unnecessarily harder.
Reposted by FPL_PB
Mystery Chip = Assistant Manager chip!
Here's the calendar up to GW38.
If EVE vs LIV is rescheduled before GW30 then my chip strategy will probably be:
Wildcard in GW30
Assistant Manager in GWs 31-33 (inc. DGW33)
Free Hit in BGW34
Bench Boost in DGW36
Triple Captain Salah in the EVE vs LIV DGW
Here's the calendar up to GW38.
If EVE vs LIV is rescheduled before GW30 then my chip strategy will probably be:
Wildcard in GW30
Assistant Manager in GWs 31-33 (inc. DGW33)
Free Hit in BGW34
Bench Boost in DGW36
Triple Captain Salah in the EVE vs LIV DGW
December 11, 2024 at 4:03 PM
Mystery Chip = Assistant Manager chip!
Here's the calendar up to GW38.
If EVE vs LIV is rescheduled before GW30 then my chip strategy will probably be:
Wildcard in GW30
Assistant Manager in GWs 31-33 (inc. DGW33)
Free Hit in BGW34
Bench Boost in DGW36
Triple Captain Salah in the EVE vs LIV DGW
Here's the calendar up to GW38.
If EVE vs LIV is rescheduled before GW30 then my chip strategy will probably be:
Wildcard in GW30
Assistant Manager in GWs 31-33 (inc. DGW33)
Free Hit in BGW34
Bench Boost in DGW36
Triple Captain Salah in the EVE vs LIV DGW
Reposted by FPL_PB
In short:
Target vs promoted teams.
Plus Everton & Wolves for your defenders
Plus West Ham & Brentford for your attackers
Avoid vs Arsenal Liverpool.
Plus Chelsea City Spurs for your defenders
Target vs promoted teams.
Plus Everton & Wolves for your defenders
Plus West Ham & Brentford for your attackers
Avoid vs Arsenal Liverpool.
Plus Chelsea City Spurs for your defenders
December 10, 2024 at 2:20 PM
In short:
Target vs promoted teams.
Plus Everton & Wolves for your defenders
Plus West Ham & Brentford for your attackers
Avoid vs Arsenal Liverpool.
Plus Chelsea City Spurs for your defenders
Target vs promoted teams.
Plus Everton & Wolves for your defenders
Plus West Ham & Brentford for your attackers
Avoid vs Arsenal Liverpool.
Plus Chelsea City Spurs for your defenders
Reposted by FPL_PB
Palmer has 38 PL goals and assists in 2024 - that's more than any other player. Eight ahead of Salah and 10 ahead of Saka and Haaland. Harry Kane holds the record for most goals and assists in a calendar year with 46. Chelsea have four PL games to go in 2024...#cfc
December 9, 2024 at 11:34 AM
Palmer has 38 PL goals and assists in 2024 - that's more than any other player. Eight ahead of Salah and 10 ahead of Saka and Haaland. Harry Kane holds the record for most goals and assists in a calendar year with 46. Chelsea have four PL games to go in 2024...#cfc
Reposted by FPL_PB
Final update on these 👇
Markets starting to cool on Man City with a drop in projections from Sunday morning. Chelsea's projections have risen with Saints likely to be missing a number of first-teamers - a chance that comes back in a bit tomorrow if Chelsea rotate their own XI
Markets starting to cool on Man City with a drop in projections from Sunday morning. Chelsea's projections have risen with Saints likely to be missing a number of first-teamers - a chance that comes back in a bit tomorrow if Chelsea rotate their own XI
December 3, 2024 at 4:05 PM
Final update on these 👇
Markets starting to cool on Man City with a drop in projections from Sunday morning. Chelsea's projections have risen with Saints likely to be missing a number of first-teamers - a chance that comes back in a bit tomorrow if Chelsea rotate their own XI
Markets starting to cool on Man City with a drop in projections from Sunday morning. Chelsea's projections have risen with Saints likely to be missing a number of first-teamers - a chance that comes back in a bit tomorrow if Chelsea rotate their own XI