Peter Ellis
@freerangestats.info
Director, Statistics for Development Division, at the Pacific Community. Posts are personal views, and most likely to be about data and #rstats, maybe with bits of history, social science and philosophy thrown in. Blog is at https://freerangestats.info/.
OK I have traced the data error to the OECD source. It has life expectancies at levels "T2" and "T3" for OECD countries. For the USA, T2 is state, and the data looks OK. For T3, there is a single 'region' - Aberdeen, South Dakota. And it has an implausible life expectancy at birth of 12 or 13.
January 14, 2026 at 10:00 AM
OK I have traced the data error to the OECD source. It has life expectancies at levels "T2" and "T3" for OECD countries. For the USA, T2 is state, and the data looks OK. For T3, there is a single 'region' - Aberdeen, South Dakota. And it has an implausible life expectancy at birth of 12 or 13.
This one can't be right surely. Is there somewhere in the US where life expectancy at birth is only about 20?
January 14, 2026 at 9:04 AM
This one can't be right surely. Is there somewhere in the US where life expectancy at birth is only about 20?
An interesting side issue from this was that there is a material seasonal aspect to New Caledonia's nickel exports. I don't really know why, although it's plausible it's related to rain causing production and transport challenges.
January 1, 2026 at 10:46 AM
An interesting side issue from this was that there is a material seasonal aspect to New Caledonia's nickel exports. I don't really know why, although it's plausible it's related to rain causing production and transport challenges.
I blogged with #rstats about New Caledonia's nickel exports and how they have collapsed in the past few years, from a combination of global economic conditions, local political economy, and security and civil unrest problems in 2024. freerangestats.info/blog/2026/01...
January 1, 2026 at 10:44 AM
I blogged with #rstats about New Caledonia's nickel exports and how they have collapsed in the past few years, from a combination of global economic conditions, local political economy, and security and civil unrest problems in 2024. freerangestats.info/blog/2026/01...
Second #rstats blog post in a series on Pacific island population issues. This post looks at net migration estimates from the UN Population Prospects. For most Pacific countries, net migration is strongly negative most of the time. freerangestats.info/blog/2025/12...
December 4, 2025 at 10:12 AM
Second #rstats blog post in a series on Pacific island population issues. This post looks at net migration estimates from the UN Population Prospects. For most Pacific countries, net migration is strongly negative most of the time. freerangestats.info/blog/2025/12...
First in a series of #rstats blog posts about drawing charts of population growth, migration and remittance issues for Pacific island countries and territories. Today's starts with the simplest - a couple of different ways to summarise population size and growth. freerangestats.info/blog/2025/11...
November 30, 2025 at 4:12 AM
First in a series of #rstats blog posts about drawing charts of population growth, migration and remittance issues for Pacific island countries and territories. Today's starts with the simplest - a couple of different ways to summarise population size and growth. freerangestats.info/blog/2025/11...
New Zealand mentioned!
November 10, 2025 at 5:55 AM
New Zealand mentioned!
I wasn't looking into the false positive rate (I was only interested in the shape) but you are correct, nothing about this suggests the null is wrongly rejected more than it should be, in this tightly controlled artificial situation. In fact false positives are a bit on the low side:
November 9, 2025 at 10:00 PM
I wasn't looking into the false positive rate (I was only interested in the shape) but you are correct, nothing about this suggests the null is wrongly rejected more than it should be, in this tightly controlled artificial situation. In fact false positives are a bit on the low side:
I had a play in #rstats with the distribution of p-values under a true null hypothesis, for two-sample tests of equal proportions at different sample sizes. They're not uniformly distributed, but sometimes they are more non-uniform than other times. freerangestats.info/blog/2025/11...
November 9, 2025 at 2:17 AM
I had a play in #rstats with the distribution of p-values under a true null hypothesis, for two-sample tests of equal proportions at different sample sizes. They're not uniformly distributed, but sometimes they are more non-uniform than other times. freerangestats.info/blog/2025/11...
Countries with more economic inequality have higher homicide rates. But for any given country, the relationship isn't as strong. This poses a multilevel modelling problem that it's easy to trip over. I tripped, righted (I hope), and blogged about it with #rstats. freerangestats.info/blog/2025/10...
October 18, 2025 at 6:56 AM
Countries with more economic inequality have higher homicide rates. But for any given country, the relationship isn't as strong. This poses a multilevel modelling problem that it's easy to trip over. I tripped, righted (I hope), and blogged about it with #rstats. freerangestats.info/blog/2025/10...
Teaching girls maths leads to jazz, my 1924 author in his 70s argues. (Excellent book BTW even if its judgements are sometimes a little questionable)
October 18, 2025 at 12:12 AM
Teaching girls maths leads to jazz, my 1924 author in his 70s argues. (Excellent book BTW even if its judgements are sometimes a little questionable)
History is full of interesting snippets. This from a 1924 reminiscence of London in the 1850s and 1860s. I wonder what else made up Miss Holt's story.
October 17, 2025 at 11:17 PM
History is full of interesting snippets. This from a 1924 reminiscence of London in the 1850s and 1860s. I wonder what else made up Miss Holt's story.
I drew a map with #rstats of the locations involved in the Ameila Earhart / Fred Noonan disappearance in 1937. The sequence of events required for there to be anything helpful and new in US archives are pretty implausible. Most likely they fell in the sea, sadly. freerangestats.info/blog/2025/10...
October 5, 2025 at 7:06 AM
I drew a map with #rstats of the locations involved in the Ameila Earhart / Fred Noonan disappearance in 1937. The sequence of events required for there to be anything helpful and new in US archives are pretty implausible. Most likely they fell in the sea, sadly. freerangestats.info/blog/2025/10...
The western Pacific in 1939 as seen by ChatGPT. American Samoa and the Marshalls appear to be west of Western Australia. Philippines has been mistaken for the Marianas and wrongly shown as Japanese-controlled. France seems in control of all 'Papua New Caledonia'.
October 4, 2025 at 6:26 AM
The western Pacific in 1939 as seen by ChatGPT. American Samoa and the Marshalls appear to be west of Western Australia. Philippines has been mistaken for the Marianas and wrongly shown as Japanese-controlled. France seems in control of all 'Papua New Caledonia'.
Good morning Manila. Here for a few days of talks and a seminar on Pacific statistics at the Asian Development Bank.
September 27, 2025 at 11:40 PM
Good morning Manila. Here for a few days of talks and a seminar on Pacific statistics at the Asian Development Bank.
I am re-posting (for different timezone audiences) this amazing job opportunity to drive data innovation, governance and stewardship in the Pacific. This time with a photo taken from across the road of the headquarters where this role is based. Applications close 26 October, New Caledonia time.
September 25, 2025 at 8:52 PM
I am re-posting (for different timezone audiences) this amazing job opportunity to drive data innovation, governance and stewardship in the Pacific. This time with a photo taken from across the road of the headquarters where this role is based. Applications close 26 October, New Caledonia time.
I also have a look at #employment, and #vaccination rates, in Papua New Guinea. Again the data is poor, but it's enough to see that a) formal employment is a very low proportion of the population and b) life-saving immunization rates are some of the lowest in the world.
September 6, 2025 at 9:31 PM
I also have a look at #employment, and #vaccination rates, in Papua New Guinea. Again the data is poor, but it's enough to see that a) formal employment is a very low proportion of the population and b) life-saving immunization rates are some of the lowest in the world.
Second issue is population. We just don't know how many people are in Papua New Guinea, to within a few million. The 2024 census results are due soon and will hopefully help, but are likely to leave a bunch of quesitons. In the meantime, we have a big range of #demography estimates to choose from.
September 6, 2025 at 9:28 PM
Second issue is population. We just don't know how many people are in Papua New Guinea, to within a few million. The 2024 census results are due soon and will hopefully help, but are likely to leave a bunch of quesitons. In the meantime, we have a big range of #demography estimates to choose from.
I just posted an #rstats #econsky blog using data from ANU's Papua New Guinea Economic Database. First issue was GDP deflator v CPI for real GDP. Using CPI to make it 'real', we see PNG GDP per capita declined by >20% since independence. freerangestats.info/blog/2025/09...
September 6, 2025 at 9:24 PM
I just posted an #rstats #econsky blog using data from ANU's Papua New Guinea Economic Database. First issue was GDP deflator v CPI for real GDP. Using CPI to make it 'real', we see PNG GDP per capita declined by >20% since independence. freerangestats.info/blog/2025/09...
I fret about whether I used researcher degrees of freedom to get the result I wanted in choosing a model that had the right number of wiggliness. Overall I think I was ok. I also explore (inadequately) the issue of spline versus tensor product smooths. All this at freerangestats.info/blog/2025/08...
August 23, 2025 at 3:27 AM
I fret about whether I used researcher degrees of freedom to get the result I wanted in choosing a model that had the right number of wiggliness. Overall I think I was ok. I also explore (inadequately) the issue of spline versus tensor product smooths. All this at freerangestats.info/blog/2025/08...
I hand-code a plot showing marginal effects from a moderately complex model, and compare it to that drawn by the {{marginaleffects}} #rstats package from @vincentab.bsky.social , @andrew.heiss.phd and @noahgreifer.bsky.social . I had Reasons.
August 23, 2025 at 3:25 AM
I hand-code a plot showing marginal effects from a moderately complex model, and compare it to that drawn by the {{marginaleffects}} #rstats package from @vincentab.bsky.social , @andrew.heiss.phd and @noahgreifer.bsky.social . I had Reasons.
I talk about accessing the UN #SDGs database API from #rstats; I had to do this pretty crudely, but it works. I needed this data because there is an SDG indicator on time spent on domestic and care work. There's some fiddly extra cleaning needed because of countries' differing ideas of age groups.
August 23, 2025 at 3:21 AM
For example, I show how to control the colour of individual edges connecting notes in a diagram drawn with {{ggdag}}. This was surprisingly fiddly and I couldn't find how to do this documented anywhere.
August 23, 2025 at 3:19 AM
For example, I show how to control the colour of individual edges connecting notes in a diagram drawn with {{ggdag}}. This was surprisingly fiddly and I couldn't find how to do this documented anywhere.
This is an easy enough misreading of the Stats NZ key facts because of the identical wording in the yellow highlighted bits, and you have to read the blue highlighted bits to realise which one is which.
August 21, 2025 at 10:12 PM
This is an easy enough misreading of the Stats NZ key facts because of the identical wording in the yellow highlighted bits, and you have to read the blue highlighted bits to realise which one is which.
I think you've got that wrong, looks like you've added a business expenditure on R&D figure to what is otherwise a gross expenditure on R&D chart? Should be 1.54% and a slight increase.
August 21, 2025 at 10:08 PM
I think you've got that wrong, looks like you've added a business expenditure on R&D figure to what is otherwise a gross expenditure on R&D chart? Should be 1.54% and a slight increase.