Peter Ellis
@freerangestats.info
Director, Statistics for Development Division, at the Pacific Community. Posts are personal views, and most likely to be about data and #rstats, maybe with bits of history, social science and philosophy thrown in. Blog is at https://freerangestats.info/.
Pinned
Peter Ellis
@freerangestats.info
· Nov 30
First in a series of #rstats blog posts about drawing charts of population growth, migration and remittance issues for Pacific island countries and territories. Today's starts with the simplest - a couple of different ways to summarise population size and growth. freerangestats.info/blog/2025/11...
Basically sound ratings of the Tintin albums. I am more positive on a few but broadly these reviews are very sensible.
January 23, 2026 at 8:26 PM
Basically sound ratings of the Tintin albums. I am more positive on a few but broadly these reviews are very sensible.
Reposted by Peter Ellis
"You're on the Island of Conclusions. Make yourself at home. You're apt to be here for some time."
"But how did we get here?" asked Milo, who was still a bit puzzled by being there at all.
"You jumped, of course," explained Canby. "That's the way most everyone gets here."
"But how did we get here?" asked Milo, who was still a bit puzzled by being there at all.
"You jumped, of course," explained Canby. "That's the way most everyone gets here."
January 22, 2026 at 11:01 PM
"You're on the Island of Conclusions. Make yourself at home. You're apt to be here for some time."
"But how did we get here?" asked Milo, who was still a bit puzzled by being there at all.
"You jumped, of course," explained Canby. "That's the way most everyone gets here."
"But how did we get here?" asked Milo, who was still a bit puzzled by being there at all.
"You jumped, of course," explained Canby. "That's the way most everyone gets here."
The flawed study in question claims corporate sustainability increases stock returns.
This paper in Management Science has been cited more than 6,000 times. Wall Street execs, top govt officials, and even a former U.S. Vice President have all referenced it. It’s fatally flawed, and the scholarly community refuses to do anything about it.
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/22/a...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/22/a...
This paper in Management Science has been cited more than 6,000 times. Wall Street executives, top government officials, and even a former U.S. Vice President have all referenced it. It’s fatally fl...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
January 22, 2026 at 8:00 PM
The flawed study in question claims corporate sustainability increases stock returns.
Stalin is generally heavily criticised for allowing huge exports including military-relevant material to Germany right up to invasion day, and a common view seems to be he was an idiot for not stopping all trade once it was clear war was inevitable.
January 20, 2026 at 10:37 PM
Stalin is generally heavily criticised for allowing huge exports including military-relevant material to Germany right up to invasion day, and a common view seems to be he was an idiot for not stopping all trade once it was clear war was inevitable.
Reposted by Peter Ellis
Once more about the z-curve method
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/20/o...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/20/o...
Once more about the z-curve method | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
January 20, 2026 at 6:30 PM
Once more about the z-curve method
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/20/o...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/20/o...
In case of interest - the European Commission is open for public submissions for another couple of days (till 22 January) on their 2026 Strategic Foresight Report - "the future of the EU in a changing world". This should be a more interesting edition than most! ec.europa.eu/info/law/bet...
European Commission - Have your say
European Commission - Have your say
ec.europa.eu
January 19, 2026 at 12:22 AM
In case of interest - the European Commission is open for public submissions for another couple of days (till 22 January) on their 2026 Strategic Foresight Report - "the future of the EU in a changing world". This should be a more interesting edition than most! ec.europa.eu/info/law/bet...
Reposted by Peter Ellis
Reposted by Peter Ellis
StatsChat on business confidence: in general
www.statschat.org.nz/2018/09/02/b...
and in particular
www.statschat.org.nz/2019/08/07/b...
www.statschat.org.nz/2018/09/02/b...
and in particular
www.statschat.org.nz/2019/08/07/b...
January 13, 2026 at 6:57 PM
StatsChat on business confidence: in general
www.statschat.org.nz/2018/09/02/b...
and in particular
www.statschat.org.nz/2019/08/07/b...
www.statschat.org.nz/2018/09/02/b...
and in particular
www.statschat.org.nz/2019/08/07/b...
Reposted by Peter Ellis
What’s the essence of blogging?
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/12/w...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/12/w...
What’s the essence of blogging? | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
January 12, 2026 at 3:43 PM
What’s the essence of blogging?
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/12/w...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/12/w...
Reposted by Peter Ellis
Our machine learning competition on forecasting depression is online! We'd love for as many people as possible to participate. Please share in your respective networks — thank you :).
www.staff.universiteitleiden.nl/announcement...
www.staff.universiteitleiden.nl/announcement...
Machine-learning competition on forecasting depression in young adults - Leiden University
After nearly 5 years of work, the research team led by Eiko Fried has finished data collection in the ERC-funded WARN-D project on building a personalised early warning system for depression. But just...
www.staff.universiteitleiden.nl
January 12, 2026 at 12:52 PM
Our machine learning competition on forecasting depression is online! We'd love for as many people as possible to participate. Please share in your respective networks — thank you :).
www.staff.universiteitleiden.nl/announcement...
www.staff.universiteitleiden.nl/announcement...
Reposted by Peter Ellis
After 9 years, I thought it was time for another major release of the forecast package for #rstats! New modelling functions, missing values now handled in ETS models, and a more consistent interface. robjhyndman.com/hyndsight/fo...
forecast package v9 – Rob J Hyndman
robjhyndman.com
January 12, 2026 at 4:21 AM
After 9 years, I thought it was time for another major release of the forecast package for #rstats! New modelling functions, missing values now handled in ETS models, and a more consistent interface. robjhyndman.com/hyndsight/fo...
Reposted by Peter Ellis
Concerns about the z-curve method
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/10/c...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/10/c...
Concerns about the z-curve method | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
January 10, 2026 at 6:56 PM
Concerns about the z-curve method
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/10/c...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/10/c...
Reposted by Peter Ellis
The old view of skilled emigration as a 'brain drain' has collapsed after a generation of research.
Skilled migrants cause innovation, technology transfer, and human capital investment in the countries they leave. The best summary is @mushfiq-econ.bsky.social et al.—>
doi.org/10.1126/scie...
Skilled migrants cause innovation, technology transfer, and human capital investment in the countries they leave. The best summary is @mushfiq-econ.bsky.social et al.—>
doi.org/10.1126/scie...
December 18, 2025 at 5:33 PM
The old view of skilled emigration as a 'brain drain' has collapsed after a generation of research.
Skilled migrants cause innovation, technology transfer, and human capital investment in the countries they leave. The best summary is @mushfiq-econ.bsky.social et al.—>
doi.org/10.1126/scie...
Skilled migrants cause innovation, technology transfer, and human capital investment in the countries they leave. The best summary is @mushfiq-econ.bsky.social et al.—>
doi.org/10.1126/scie...
Reposted by Peter Ellis
Excited to share a new R package: 𝗵𝗲𝗮𝘁 🌡️
`heat` makes it easier to work with climate or other gridded data in applied research, providing a comprehensive + optimized set of tools to compute environmental exposures for admin boundaries or points from gridded/point data.
github.com/echolab-stan...
`heat` makes it easier to work with climate or other gridded data in applied research, providing a comprehensive + optimized set of tools to compute environmental exposures for admin boundaries or points from gridded/point data.
github.com/echolab-stan...
GitHub - echolab-stanford/heat: R package heat: Harmonized Environmental Exposure Aggregation Tools
R package heat: Harmonized Environmental Exposure Aggregation Tools - echolab-stanford/heat
github.com
January 5, 2026 at 11:19 PM
Excited to share a new R package: 𝗵𝗲𝗮𝘁 🌡️
`heat` makes it easier to work with climate or other gridded data in applied research, providing a comprehensive + optimized set of tools to compute environmental exposures for admin boundaries or points from gridded/point data.
github.com/echolab-stan...
`heat` makes it easier to work with climate or other gridded data in applied research, providing a comprehensive + optimized set of tools to compute environmental exposures for admin boundaries or points from gridded/point data.
github.com/echolab-stan...
Reposted by Peter Ellis
🚀 Announcing unicefData — open-source access to 700+ child welfare indicators from UNICEF’s SDMX API
One syntax across Python, R, and Stata. No API expertise needed.
🔗 github.com/unicef-drp/unicefData
#OpenData #SDGs #RStats #Python #Stata
One syntax across Python, R, and Stata. No API expertise needed.
🔗 github.com/unicef-drp/unicefData
#OpenData #SDGs #RStats #Python #Stata
GitHub - unicef-drp/unicefData: unicefData is an open data and analytics platform led by UNICEF’s Office of the Chief Statistician, providing reproducible, standards-based tools for accessing and usin...
unicefData is an open data and analytics platform led by UNICEF’s Office of the Chief Statistician, providing reproducible, standards-based tools for accessing and using official child-related stat...
github.com
December 30, 2025 at 8:43 PM
I blogged with #rstats about New Caledonia's nickel exports and how they have collapsed in the past few years, from a combination of global economic conditions, local political economy, and security and civil unrest problems in 2024. freerangestats.info/blog/2026/01...
January 1, 2026 at 10:44 AM
I blogged with #rstats about New Caledonia's nickel exports and how they have collapsed in the past few years, from a combination of global economic conditions, local political economy, and security and civil unrest problems in 2024. freerangestats.info/blog/2026/01...
Reposted by Peter Ellis
LLMs are biased towards their training data. Most published research is...not brilliant. What is the likelihood that an LLM produces a useful hypothesis and not, say, "why not try flax seed oil for liver disease".
December 30, 2025 at 11:39 PM
LLMs are biased towards their training data. Most published research is...not brilliant. What is the likelihood that an LLM produces a useful hypothesis and not, say, "why not try flax seed oil for liver disease".
Reposted by Peter Ellis
For last week's #TidyTuesday, I created a map of endangered languages around the world. Built entirely in R/ggplot2: transforming spatial coordinates, identifying hotspots and composing multiple charts!
Code: github.com/gkaramanis/t...
Inspiration: www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/co...
#RStats #dataviz
Code: github.com/gkaramanis/t...
Inspiration: www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/co...
#RStats #dataviz
December 29, 2025 at 11:47 AM
For last week's #TidyTuesday, I created a map of endangered languages around the world. Built entirely in R/ggplot2: transforming spatial coordinates, identifying hotspots and composing multiple charts!
Code: github.com/gkaramanis/t...
Inspiration: www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/co...
#RStats #dataviz
Code: github.com/gkaramanis/t...
Inspiration: www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/co...
#RStats #dataviz
I see the guy who said sinking the Bismarck was a war crime has deleted his account or something. This was a classic kerfuffle that should have just been about facts (did the Bismarck surrender before sinking or not? And the answer is "no") but instead became an abusive bunfight in all directions.
December 29, 2025 at 4:22 AM
I see the guy who said sinking the Bismarck was a war crime has deleted his account or something. This was a classic kerfuffle that should have just been about facts (did the Bismarck surrender before sinking or not? And the answer is "no") but instead became an abusive bunfight in all directions.
I have put together an index page compiling my various #rstats blog posts using #Pacific island countries and territories; data: freerangestats.info/blog/pacific.... Topics such as choropleth maps of the Pacific, demographic techniques and trends, and multidimensional vulnerability.
Posts about the Pacific
I write about applications of data and analytical techniques like statistical modelling and simulation to real-world situations. I show how to access and use data, and provide examples of analytical p...
freerangestats.info
December 29, 2025 at 2:44 AM
I have put together an index page compiling my various #rstats blog posts using #Pacific island countries and territories; data: freerangestats.info/blog/pacific.... Topics such as choropleth maps of the Pacific, demographic techniques and trends, and multidimensional vulnerability.
Reposted by Peter Ellis
The death of Brigitte Bardot necessitated the update of this marvelous chart. Only three people mentioned in Billy Joel's banger "We Didn't Start The Fire" are still alive. Source: buff.ly/cWkphRB
December 28, 2025 at 10:49 PM
The death of Brigitte Bardot necessitated the update of this marvelous chart. Only three people mentioned in Billy Joel's banger "We Didn't Start The Fire" are still alive. Source: buff.ly/cWkphRB
Reposted by Peter Ellis
That is pretty obvious to me. If a paper has hallucinations, fake citations or other LLM artifacts, it should be immediately desk rejected.
I'd like to propose the following norm for peer review of papers. If a paper shows clear signs of LLM-generated errors that were not detected by the author, the paper should be immediately rejected. My reasoning: 1/ #ResearchIntegrity
December 28, 2025 at 10:04 AM
That is pretty obvious to me. If a paper has hallucinations, fake citations or other LLM artifacts, it should be immediately desk rejected.
Reposted by Peter Ellis
I generally think @maiamindel.bsky.social is a very good commentator and her take on the Are White Male Millennials Oppressed? discourse is good too.
someunpleasant.substack.com/p/whose-lost...
someunpleasant.substack.com/p/whose-lost...
Whose Lost Decade?
Woke Saturn devouring his chud son
someunpleasant.substack.com
December 27, 2025 at 9:28 AM
I generally think @maiamindel.bsky.social is a very good commentator and her take on the Are White Male Millennials Oppressed? discourse is good too.
someunpleasant.substack.com/p/whose-lost...
someunpleasant.substack.com/p/whose-lost...
OK books that I read for the first time in 2025 and gave five stars to! - a thread. First up, Marc Morris' The Norman Conquest. I don't remember much about this but I read it in a day this Jan and gave it 5 stars so it must be good. I remember learning more about the post-Hastings stuff.
The Norman Conquest
An epic tale, with violence at its heart, and a triumph…
www.goodreads.com
December 27, 2025 at 4:15 AM
OK books that I read for the first time in 2025 and gave five stars to! - a thread. First up, Marc Morris' The Norman Conquest. I don't remember much about this but I read it in a day this Jan and gave it 5 stars so it must be good. I remember learning more about the post-Hastings stuff.
Reposted by Peter Ellis
AI is accelerating the velocity of stupid promises by 5x
December 25, 2025 at 4:12 AM
AI is accelerating the velocity of stupid promises by 5x