Archimedes
@fromtherocks.bsky.social
Gazing from the Overton Window - last 'here' 225my ago - ex-CEO intl co - author - earth scientist - hoping the future is delayed. London. And bees.
Um...i'm no expert... but, based on past 5 events weighted to most recent, not politics, red/orange/green rankings for team fans? with matching policing etc responses, then add 20% for red 20% for orange or whatever.
January 14, 2026 at 11:56 AM
Um...i'm no expert... but, based on past 5 events weighted to most recent, not politics, red/orange/green rankings for team fans? with matching policing etc responses, then add 20% for red 20% for orange or whatever.
Mandate err on the side of caution plus +20% (say) safety margin at each event as problems so easily politicised etc
January 14, 2026 at 11:44 AM
Mandate err on the side of caution plus +20% (say) safety margin at each event as problems so easily politicised etc
Presumably C is working as fast as possible to save the annual 250bn++ their energy imports are costing so that money can be spent elsewhere.
oilprice.com/Latest-Energ....
oilprice.com/Latest-Energ....
China’s Oil Imports Hit an All-Time High in 2025 | OilPrice.com
China’s crude oil imports reached a record high last year, driven by aggressive stockpiling that challenges assumptions of irreversible demand decline amid electrification.
oilprice.com
January 14, 2026 at 9:35 AM
Presumably C is working as fast as possible to save the annual 250bn++ their energy imports are costing so that money can be spent elsewhere.
oilprice.com/Latest-Energ....
oilprice.com/Latest-Energ....
China poured more cement in 2011-2013 than the USA during the entire 20th century.
Destined for War, Graham Allison.
Destined for War, Graham Allison.
January 14, 2026 at 9:03 AM
China poured more cement in 2011-2013 than the USA during the entire 20th century.
Destined for War, Graham Allison.
Destined for War, Graham Allison.
This is what uncertainty looks like.
Why it takes a while for the inflation impact to come thru from tariffs and deportations.
Also it explains why investment outside of AI has been so weak in the US, despite many things which normally would have led to a boom.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Why it takes a while for the inflation impact to come thru from tariffs and deportations.
Also it explains why investment outside of AI has been so weak in the US, despite many things which normally would have led to a boom.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The Economic Toll of Trump’s Policies Will Soon Be Visible
Mainstream economists have underestimated the cost of all the confusion the administration has unleashed, particularly on trade and immigration.
www.bloomberg.com
January 13, 2026 at 2:45 PM
Sentient, upon a plank in daytime.
Apologies to Keats.
Apologies to Keats.
January 13, 2026 at 12:31 PM
Sentient, upon a plank in daytime.
Apologies to Keats.
Apologies to Keats.
Oooo - what a fabulously balanced photo Jim
January 11, 2026 at 3:35 PM
Oooo - what a fabulously balanced photo Jim
I'm still travelling happily from the deserts of Sudan to the Gardens of Japan...
January 10, 2026 at 10:50 PM
I'm still travelling happily from the deserts of Sudan to the Gardens of Japan...
Great 🧵 - and we/humanity have been here many times before - yet it seems always forget what happens to truth when it's squeezed by the media of the day.
January 10, 2026 at 2:22 PM
Great 🧵 - and we/humanity have been here many times before - yet it seems always forget what happens to truth when it's squeezed by the media of the day.
They also draw names out of a hat (Jesus) when all candidates are equal.
January 10, 2026 at 12:06 PM
They also draw names out of a hat (Jesus) when all candidates are equal.
Risks everywhere you look - subsurface, surface, surveillance, export, law...very familiar to anyone doing DD on ex-USSR fields in the 90s...except you already know the oil is 💩.
January 9, 2026 at 4:53 PM
Risks everywhere you look - subsurface, surface, surveillance, export, law...very familiar to anyone doing DD on ex-USSR fields in the 90s...except you already know the oil is 💩.
Where is Gen. George C. Marshall when you need him? From James Holland's War in the West.
Similar required to S&R imo - remembering Mark Twain etc.
Similar required to S&R imo - remembering Mark Twain etc.
January 9, 2026 at 12:32 PM
Where is Gen. George C. Marshall when you need him? From James Holland's War in the West.
Similar required to S&R imo - remembering Mark Twain etc.
Similar required to S&R imo - remembering Mark Twain etc.
Oh, completely agree - I have family in the army - I was just wondering, given the excellent John Bew comments at the end of this, if the Chiefs have finally had enough of all the systemmic problems and shilly-shallying.
bsky.app/profile/samf...
bsky.app/profile/samf...
New post out:
We have an interview with John Bew - one of the most influential people in British politics over the past decade + foreign policy adviser to four PMs.
(Free to read)
samf.substack.com/p/interview-...
We have an interview with John Bew - one of the most influential people in British politics over the past decade + foreign policy adviser to four PMs.
(Free to read)
samf.substack.com/p/interview-...
Interview with John Bew - adviser to four Prime Ministers
On Whitehall, Ukraine, Trump and the global challenges facing Britain
samf.substack.com
January 9, 2026 at 12:20 PM
Oh, completely agree - I have family in the army - I was just wondering, given the excellent John Bew comments at the end of this, if the Chiefs have finally had enough of all the systemmic problems and shilly-shallying.
bsky.app/profile/samf...
bsky.app/profile/samf...
S&R were told before Christmas apparently - if true, the budget was effectively DOA.
Odd that such a large number appeared so late, suddenly and apparently surprisingly...
Odd that such a large number appeared so late, suddenly and apparently surprisingly...
January 9, 2026 at 12:04 PM
S&R were told before Christmas apparently - if true, the budget was effectively DOA.
Odd that such a large number appeared so late, suddenly and apparently surprisingly...
Odd that such a large number appeared so late, suddenly and apparently surprisingly...
Life immitates art as usual...
youtu.be/QvGKNSX1pEA?...
youtu.be/QvGKNSX1pEA?...
Blade Runner 2049 - Two Become One
YouTube video by ManticoreEscapee
youtu.be
January 9, 2026 at 10:48 AM
Life immitates art as usual...
youtu.be/QvGKNSX1pEA?...
youtu.be/QvGKNSX1pEA?...
Without a strategy, you can't choose between tactical trade-offs.
Business 101.
Astounding how they are in this mess.
Business 101.
Astounding how they are in this mess.
January 9, 2026 at 9:26 AM
Without a strategy, you can't choose between tactical trade-offs.
Business 101.
Astounding how they are in this mess.
Business 101.
Astounding how they are in this mess.
The famous straw that broke the camel's back.
The weird thing is this is all so foreseeable.
Vast political capital expended to police tiddly winks.
The weird thing is this is all so foreseeable.
Vast political capital expended to police tiddly winks.
January 9, 2026 at 9:23 AM
The famous straw that broke the camel's back.
The weird thing is this is all so foreseeable.
Vast political capital expended to police tiddly winks.
The weird thing is this is all so foreseeable.
Vast political capital expended to police tiddly winks.
bsky.app/profile/cove...
On his way back from Africa I remember reading somewhere, if so likely boarded in the Red Sea?
On his way back from Africa I remember reading somewhere, if so likely boarded in the Red Sea?
Per Russian reporting shared via @bunkerhunter.bsky.social, it is a tanker, and the high-ranking official General Andrei Averyanov of the GRU.
Why would a GRU boss be on a shadow fleet tanker? ;)
Why would a GRU boss be on a shadow fleet tanker? ;)
January 7, 2026 at 3:01 PM
bsky.app/profile/cove...
On his way back from Africa I remember reading somewhere, if so likely boarded in the Red Sea?
On his way back from Africa I remember reading somewhere, if so likely boarded in the Red Sea?
Great q - remembering who was allegedly on the one in the Med.
Seems they are also transports for grey personnel?
Seems they are also transports for grey personnel?
January 7, 2026 at 2:13 PM
Great q - remembering who was allegedly on the one in the Med.
Seems they are also transports for grey personnel?
Seems they are also transports for grey personnel?
"At the request of President Maduro, the US rescued him and his wife in Caracas from a Cuban death squad - I now warn Cuba, Colombia...etc."
January 3, 2026 at 12:06 PM
"At the request of President Maduro, the US rescued him and his wife in Caracas from a Cuban death squad - I now warn Cuba, Colombia...etc."