Frontline Democracy
@frontlinedemocracy.bsky.social
My model's current prediction:
91% Chance DEMs win a majority, DEMS win 336 Seats on average.
Easiest Flip: NE-02 (Don Bacon's Seat)
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/2026-house...
91% Chance DEMs win a majority, DEMS win 336 Seats on average.
Easiest Flip: NE-02 (Don Bacon's Seat)
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/2026-house...
2026 House Forecast - Midterm Elections
Who is favored to win the House?
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com
December 29, 2025 at 12:37 AM
My model's current prediction:
91% Chance DEMs win a majority, DEMS win 336 Seats on average.
Easiest Flip: NE-02 (Don Bacon's Seat)
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/2026-house...
91% Chance DEMs win a majority, DEMS win 336 Seats on average.
Easiest Flip: NE-02 (Don Bacon's Seat)
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/2026-house...
Unfortunately, her district is Gerrymandered in a way that will make it difficult for DEMS to flip it.
Even in my models current scenario (DEMs win 236 seats), Luna's seat remains in Republican hands. Take a look here:
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/2026-house...
Even in my models current scenario (DEMs win 236 seats), Luna's seat remains in Republican hands. Take a look here:
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/2026-house...
2026 House Forecast - Midterm Elections
Who is favored to win the House?
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com
December 29, 2025 at 12:32 AM
Unfortunately, her district is Gerrymandered in a way that will make it difficult for DEMS to flip it.
Even in my models current scenario (DEMs win 236 seats), Luna's seat remains in Republican hands. Take a look here:
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/2026-house...
Even in my models current scenario (DEMs win 236 seats), Luna's seat remains in Republican hands. Take a look here:
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/2026-house...
I'll keep track of that and adjust the model when we have a better grasp with district level polling, fundraising asf.
December 28, 2025 at 6:58 PM
I'll keep track of that and adjust the model when we have a better grasp with district level polling, fundraising asf.
600,000 according to the New Yorker
December 28, 2025 at 3:38 PM
600,000 according to the New Yorker
Lawler is a tough incumbent to beat, but my model currently has him losing (though it's a tossup with margin of <2 pts)
NY-17 Probabilities:
🔵 DEM: 58.4%
🔴 GOP (Lawler): 41.6%
You can see all details here:
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/2026-house...
NY-17 Probabilities:
🔵 DEM: 58.4%
🔴 GOP (Lawler): 41.6%
You can see all details here:
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/2026-house...
2026 House Forecast - Midterm Elections
Who is favored to win the House?
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com
December 28, 2025 at 1:52 PM
Lawler is a tough incumbent to beat, but my model currently has him losing (though it's a tossup with margin of <2 pts)
NY-17 Probabilities:
🔵 DEM: 58.4%
🔴 GOP (Lawler): 41.6%
You can see all details here:
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/2026-house...
NY-17 Probabilities:
🔵 DEM: 58.4%
🔴 GOP (Lawler): 41.6%
You can see all details here:
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/2026-house...
I haven't updated my forecasted model since Christmas Eve, but right now, Democrats are likely to secure around 236 seats!
The probability of DEMs winning the majority stand at 91%
You can check out the district-level forecast here:
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/2026-house...
The probability of DEMs winning the majority stand at 91%
You can check out the district-level forecast here:
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/2026-house...
2026 House Forecast - Midterm Elections
Who is favored to win the House?
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com
December 28, 2025 at 12:55 PM
I haven't updated my forecasted model since Christmas Eve, but right now, Democrats are likely to secure around 236 seats!
The probability of DEMs winning the majority stand at 91%
You can check out the district-level forecast here:
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/2026-house...
The probability of DEMs winning the majority stand at 91%
You can check out the district-level forecast here:
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/2026-house...
Even a generic ballot victory of just 6 points would net Democrats around 335 seats (the exact 2018 outcome)
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/2026-house...
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/2026-house...
2026 House Forecast - Midterm Elections
Who is favored to win the House?
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com
December 18, 2025 at 11:29 AM
Even a generic ballot victory of just 6 points would net Democrats around 335 seats (the exact 2018 outcome)
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/2026-house...
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/2026-house...
It really starts to matter when Incumbents retire that have a strong performance record like Lawler (NY) or Fitzpatrick (PA). If I would take the incumbency effects out of my model, both of them would loose handily.
But right now Fitzpatrick would hold on to his seat
But right now Fitzpatrick would hold on to his seat
December 18, 2025 at 11:13 AM
It really starts to matter when Incumbents retire that have a strong performance record like Lawler (NY) or Fitzpatrick (PA). If I would take the incumbency effects out of my model, both of them would loose handily.
But right now Fitzpatrick would hold on to his seat
But right now Fitzpatrick would hold on to his seat
Honestly, apart from reading & summarizing documents and writing code, there's not much in it...
Like, I don't fully get the OpenAI valuation if there product is still so flawed that, according to a study, it produces a lie on every 3rd answer
Like, I don't fully get the OpenAI valuation if there product is still so flawed that, according to a study, it produces a lie on every 3rd answer
December 17, 2025 at 11:00 PM
Honestly, apart from reading & summarizing documents and writing code, there's not much in it...
Like, I don't fully get the OpenAI valuation if there product is still so flawed that, according to a study, it produces a lie on every 3rd answer
Like, I don't fully get the OpenAI valuation if there product is still so flawed that, according to a study, it produces a lie on every 3rd answer
I still have Mackenzie losing in my forecast model, and his vote won't change that. 2026 will be too blue to overcome. The one moderate R who might survive is Fitzpatrick (up by 5 pts in the forecast)
open.substack.com/pub/frontlin...
open.substack.com/pub/frontlin...
2026 House Forecast - Midterm Elections
Who is favored to win the House?
open.substack.com
December 17, 2025 at 10:50 PM
I still have Mackenzie losing in my forecast model, and his vote won't change that. 2026 will be too blue to overcome. The one moderate R who might survive is Fitzpatrick (up by 5 pts in the forecast)
open.substack.com/pub/frontlin...
open.substack.com/pub/frontlin...
Hey, I've finally finished my 2026 Forecast model. I'll try and update it daily.
Take a look and let me know what you think :)
open.substack.com/pub/frontlin...
Take a look and let me know what you think :)
open.substack.com/pub/frontlin...
2026 House Forecast - Midterm Elections
Who is favored to win the House?
open.substack.com
December 17, 2025 at 10:48 PM
Hey, I've finally finished my 2026 Forecast model. I'll try and update it daily.
Take a look and let me know what you think :)
open.substack.com/pub/frontlin...
Take a look and let me know what you think :)
open.substack.com/pub/frontlin...
It's the year 2025 anf The Vice President of the United States seems confused about the concept of unemploymen
December 16, 2025 at 5:54 PM
It's the year 2025 anf The Vice President of the United States seems confused about the concept of unemploymen
MAGA will likely die with Trump
Because only Trump has the talent to get away with such lies
Because only Trump has the talent to get away with such lies
December 16, 2025 at 5:53 PM
MAGA will likely die with Trump
Because only Trump has the talent to get away with such lies
Because only Trump has the talent to get away with such lies
That's true, the Senate is incredibly biased towards Republicans. I think a study once showed that, if the national vote splits 50/50, Republicans get 54 Senate seats. That's hardly fair.
First big step to fixing this would be DC Statehood, which is long overdue
First big step to fixing this would be DC Statehood, which is long overdue
December 12, 2025 at 3:18 PM
That's true, the Senate is incredibly biased towards Republicans. I think a study once showed that, if the national vote splits 50/50, Republicans get 54 Senate seats. That's hardly fair.
First big step to fixing this would be DC Statehood, which is long overdue
First big step to fixing this would be DC Statehood, which is long overdue
Only one of the 2024 swing state has trended decisively into one direction over the past 8 yrs: Georgia.
2016 to 2024 Election Data suggests that Democrats might have better more favorable conditions in 2028:
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/2024-elect...
2016 to 2024 Election Data suggests that Democrats might have better more favorable conditions in 2028:
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/2024-elect...
2024 Election Data: The Good News for Democrats
Take a look at the 2016 to 2024 swing maps that might increase Democrats' chances in 2028.
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com
December 12, 2025 at 1:09 PM
Only one of the 2024 swing state has trended decisively into one direction over the past 8 yrs: Georgia.
2016 to 2024 Election Data suggests that Democrats might have better more favorable conditions in 2028:
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/2024-elect...
2016 to 2024 Election Data suggests that Democrats might have better more favorable conditions in 2028:
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/2024-elect...
We don't. Some have a congressional system similar to the US (UK, Canada), and congress then elects the PM
We in Germany have a proportional system.
The EC needs to be abandoned. However, in the past 8 yrs, Democrats made some interesting gains:
We in Germany have a proportional system.
The EC needs to be abandoned. However, in the past 8 yrs, Democrats made some interesting gains:
December 12, 2025 at 1:06 PM
We don't. Some have a congressional system similar to the US (UK, Canada), and congress then elects the PM
We in Germany have a proportional system.
The EC needs to be abandoned. However, in the past 8 yrs, Democrats made some interesting gains:
We in Germany have a proportional system.
The EC needs to be abandoned. However, in the past 8 yrs, Democrats made some interesting gains:
How evil do you want to be?
Pete Hegseth: Yes
Pete Hegseth: Yes
December 10, 2025 at 8:36 PM
How evil do you want to be?
Pete Hegseth: Yes
Pete Hegseth: Yes