Frontline Democracy
@frontlinedemocracy.bsky.social
Reposted by Frontline Democracy
US 2026 Election House Forecast Update Dec. 19th 2025
🔵DEM: 234 Seats
🔴REP: 201 Seats
Probability for a Democratic Majority: 88%
Take a look at the district-level map:
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/2026-house...
🔵DEM: 234 Seats
🔴REP: 201 Seats
Probability for a Democratic Majority: 88%
Take a look at the district-level map:
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/2026-house...
2026 House Forecast - Midterm Elections
Who is favored to win the House?
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com
December 19, 2025 at 3:29 PM
US 2026 Election House Forecast Update Dec. 19th 2025
🔵DEM: 234 Seats
🔴REP: 201 Seats
Probability for a Democratic Majority: 88%
Take a look at the district-level map:
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/2026-house...
🔵DEM: 234 Seats
🔴REP: 201 Seats
Probability for a Democratic Majority: 88%
Take a look at the district-level map:
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/2026-house...
Here's why IOWA should be a prime target for House Democrats in 2026:
Chance for Dems to win three seat:
🔵 IA-1: 82% (Likely D Flip)
🟡 IA-2: 39% (Toss-UP)
🔵 IA-3: 70% (Lean D FLip)
Take a look at the full map:
open.substack.com/pub/frontlin...
Chance for Dems to win three seat:
🔵 IA-1: 82% (Likely D Flip)
🟡 IA-2: 39% (Toss-UP)
🔵 IA-3: 70% (Lean D FLip)
Take a look at the full map:
open.substack.com/pub/frontlin...
2026 House Forecast - Midterm Elections
Who is favored to win the House?
open.substack.com
December 17, 2025 at 10:54 PM
Here's why IOWA should be a prime target for House Democrats in 2026:
Chance for Dems to win three seat:
🔵 IA-1: 82% (Likely D Flip)
🟡 IA-2: 39% (Toss-UP)
🔵 IA-3: 70% (Lean D FLip)
Take a look at the full map:
open.substack.com/pub/frontlin...
Chance for Dems to win three seat:
🔵 IA-1: 82% (Likely D Flip)
🟡 IA-2: 39% (Toss-UP)
🔵 IA-3: 70% (Lean D FLip)
Take a look at the full map:
open.substack.com/pub/frontlin...
2026 House Forecast - Midterm Elections
Who is favored to win the House?
open.substack.com
December 17, 2025 at 10:46 PM
Kentucky Senate 37th District Special Election Results:
🔵 Dem: 72,6%
🔴 Rep: 25,1 %
Seat was Harris +6 in 2024 so that's an overperformance of *41 points!
🔵 Dem: 72,6%
🔴 Rep: 25,1 %
Seat was Harris +6 in 2024 so that's an overperformance of *41 points!
December 17, 2025 at 12:38 AM
Kentucky Senate 37th District Special Election Results:
🔵 Dem: 72,6%
🔴 Rep: 25,1 %
Seat was Harris +6 in 2024 so that's an overperformance of *41 points!
🔵 Dem: 72,6%
🔴 Rep: 25,1 %
Seat was Harris +6 in 2024 so that's an overperformance of *41 points!
Tomorrow, I'll release my 2026 House Forecast Model, including an interactive map of all 435 Districts!
Subscribe to get notified: frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com
Subscribe to get notified: frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com
December 17, 2025 at 12:34 AM
Tomorrow, I'll release my 2026 House Forecast Model, including an interactive map of all 435 Districts!
Subscribe to get notified: frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com
Subscribe to get notified: frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com
Reposted by Frontline Democracy
A look at 2025 Election data shows that the AFD's strength is being boosted by Western Germany.
Any attempt to stop them should start there:
open.substack.com/pub/frontlin...
Any attempt to stop them should start there:
open.substack.com/pub/frontlin...
Stopping the AFD Starts in the West, Where 70% of Their Voters Live
A look at election data shows that the AFD's strength comes from the West.
open.substack.com
December 6, 2025 at 2:29 PM
A look at 2025 Election data shows that the AFD's strength is being boosted by Western Germany.
Any attempt to stop them should start there:
open.substack.com/pub/frontlin...
Any attempt to stop them should start there:
open.substack.com/pub/frontlin...
I calculated the new Indiana Gerrymander based on different elections. It's a R9-0D map in 2024, but the 1st District becomes competitive if the nationwide results get closer:
1st District:
2024 Pres.: 🔴 R+12
2020 Pres.: 🔴 R+4
Democrats will also have an incumbent running in that district.
1st District:
2024 Pres.: 🔴 R+12
2020 Pres.: 🔴 R+4
Democrats will also have an incumbent running in that district.
December 1, 2025 at 3:47 PM
I calculated the new Indiana Gerrymander based on different elections. It's a R9-0D map in 2024, but the 1st District becomes competitive if the nationwide results get closer:
1st District:
2024 Pres.: 🔴 R+12
2020 Pres.: 🔴 R+4
Democrats will also have an incumbent running in that district.
1st District:
2024 Pres.: 🔴 R+12
2020 Pres.: 🔴 R+4
Democrats will also have an incumbent running in that district.
Let's not forget a time when political violence did not have any consequences:
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/the-murder...
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/the-murder...
October 12, 2025 at 11:27 AM
Let's not forget a time when political violence did not have any consequences:
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/the-murder...
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/the-murder...
Reposted by Frontline Democracy
DISNEY: "OK, we are putting Jimmy Kimmel back on the air. You can resubscribe now."
ME: "I unsubscribed because you immorally bowed to fascism. I'm not going to resubscribe because you immorally bowed to finances."
ME: "I unsubscribed because you immorally bowed to fascism. I'm not going to resubscribe because you immorally bowed to finances."
September 22, 2025 at 9:14 PM
DISNEY: "OK, we are putting Jimmy Kimmel back on the air. You can resubscribe now."
ME: "I unsubscribed because you immorally bowed to fascism. I'm not going to resubscribe because you immorally bowed to finances."
ME: "I unsubscribed because you immorally bowed to fascism. I'm not going to resubscribe because you immorally bowed to finances."
Reposted by Frontline Democracy
Public pressure works. Bowing to bullies doesn’t.
Jimmy Kimmel’s return is a win — now Disney and ABC must stand firm in defending his First Amendment rights and those of every American.
When political power can silence speech, our democracy itself is at risk.
Jimmy Kimmel’s return is a win — now Disney and ABC must stand firm in defending his First Amendment rights and those of every American.
When political power can silence speech, our democracy itself is at risk.
September 22, 2025 at 9:50 PM
Public pressure works. Bowing to bullies doesn’t.
Jimmy Kimmel’s return is a win — now Disney and ABC must stand firm in defending his First Amendment rights and those of every American.
When political power can silence speech, our democracy itself is at risk.
Jimmy Kimmel’s return is a win — now Disney and ABC must stand firm in defending his First Amendment rights and those of every American.
When political power can silence speech, our democracy itself is at risk.
Jimmy Kimmel is back!
September 22, 2025 at 8:16 PM
Jimmy Kimmel is back!
The Deep South has not overcome its past, 2024 election data shows:
open.substack.com/pub/frontlin...
open.substack.com/pub/frontlin...
The Deep South is Still Racially Polarized: A Look at 2024 Election Data
There has always been a gap in the voting preferences of white and non-white voters. Recent Election Data shows that there is one region where racial polarization is unbelievably high.
open.substack.com
September 22, 2025 at 6:25 PM
The Deep South has not overcome its past, 2024 election data shows:
open.substack.com/pub/frontlin...
open.substack.com/pub/frontlin...
Have you ever wondered how differently Democrats and Republicans respond to incidents of political violence?
The answer is stunning...
Take a look at our comparison:
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/only-one-s...
The answer is stunning...
Take a look at our comparison:
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/only-one-s...
Only One Side is Trying to Stop Political Violence
Political Violence is spiraling. We examined how each Party responded to various political attacks. The statements show that one side is much less interested in unifying the country than the other.
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com
September 15, 2025 at 2:16 PM
Have you ever wondered how differently Democrats and Republicans respond to incidents of political violence?
The answer is stunning...
Take a look at our comparison:
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/only-one-s...
The answer is stunning...
Take a look at our comparison:
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/only-one-s...
Reposted by Frontline Democracy
The difference is staggering.
September 13, 2025 at 10:23 PM
The difference is staggering.
Can Germany ban the far-right AFD?
I've taken a look at the facts, here are my findings:
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/can-german...
I've taken a look at the facts, here are my findings:
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/can-german...
Can Germany Ban the Far-Right AFD?
Calls to ban the AFD are growing louder. We'll take a look at why and how political parties can be banned in Germany, and whether the AFD meets the criteria necessary for a ban.
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com
September 10, 2025 at 1:53 PM
Can Germany ban the far-right AFD?
I've taken a look at the facts, here are my findings:
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/can-german...
I've taken a look at the facts, here are my findings:
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/can-german...
The WSJ upstaged me!
They fabricated the Trump-Epstein story to draw attention away from my latest post, which already had like 10 views and would have certainly blown up if the crooks from the WSJ had not stolen the spotlight!
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/germany-ju...
They fabricated the Trump-Epstein story to draw attention away from my latest post, which already had like 10 views and would have certainly blown up if the crooks from the WSJ had not stolen the spotlight!
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/germany-ju...
Germany just had an American Debacle
Electing Supreme Court Justices with a 2/3 majority is a formality in Germany. Last week, the CDU blocked the nomination of a judge for the first time. Is a culture war ahead?
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com
July 19, 2025 at 4:29 PM
The WSJ upstaged me!
They fabricated the Trump-Epstein story to draw attention away from my latest post, which already had like 10 views and would have certainly blown up if the crooks from the WSJ had not stolen the spotlight!
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/germany-ju...
They fabricated the Trump-Epstein story to draw attention away from my latest post, which already had like 10 views and would have certainly blown up if the crooks from the WSJ had not stolen the spotlight!
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/germany-ju...
Inflation rates are going up!
The latest CPI report for June 2025 shows inflation at 2,7%. It’s the highest level seen since February of this year.
Experts say that the impact of initial tariffs are finally starting push prices higher, with more yet to come.
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/15/b...
The latest CPI report for June 2025 shows inflation at 2,7%. It’s the highest level seen since February of this year.
Experts say that the impact of initial tariffs are finally starting push prices higher, with more yet to come.
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/15/b...
U.S. Inflation Accelerated in June as Trump’s Tariffs Pushed Up Prices
www.nytimes.com
July 15, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Inflation rates are going up!
The latest CPI report for June 2025 shows inflation at 2,7%. It’s the highest level seen since February of this year.
Experts say that the impact of initial tariffs are finally starting push prices higher, with more yet to come.
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/15/b...
The latest CPI report for June 2025 shows inflation at 2,7%. It’s the highest level seen since February of this year.
Experts say that the impact of initial tariffs are finally starting push prices higher, with more yet to come.
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/15/b...
🔴 What do you think has been Republican’s most successful election strategy over the past decades?
Comment below ⬇️
(hint: it’s one they are still using…)
Comment below ⬇️
(hint: it’s one they are still using…)
July 10, 2025 at 1:34 PM
🔴 What do you think has been Republican’s most successful election strategy over the past decades?
Comment below ⬇️
(hint: it’s one they are still using…)
Comment below ⬇️
(hint: it’s one they are still using…)
Wanna know what the winning strategy for Republicans looks like?
It looks like racism...
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/the-winnin...
It looks like racism...
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/the-winnin...
The Winning Strategy for Republicans: Racism
Republicans' "Southern Strategy" played to racist sentiments to win over the South. It's a highly controversial strategy that is still at the center of Republican rhetoric.
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com
July 10, 2025 at 1:24 PM
Wanna know what the winning strategy for Republicans looks like?
It looks like racism...
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/the-winnin...
It looks like racism...
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/the-winnin...
NYT asked Trump how Ukraine weapon stop could happen without him knowing after he again said he doesn't know how it was:
“I would know, if a decision was made, I will know. I’ll be the first to know. In fact most likely I’d give the order, but I haven’t done that.”
What the ...?
“I would know, if a decision was made, I will know. I’ll be the first to know. In fact most likely I’d give the order, but I haven’t done that.”
What the ...?
July 9, 2025 at 7:05 PM
NYT asked Trump how Ukraine weapon stop could happen without him knowing after he again said he doesn't know how it was:
“I would know, if a decision was made, I will know. I’ll be the first to know. In fact most likely I’d give the order, but I haven’t done that.”
What the ...?
“I would know, if a decision was made, I will know. I’ll be the first to know. In fact most likely I’d give the order, but I haven’t done that.”
What the ...?
👉 Freedom Dies with Book Bans
As Trump floods the news with crisis after crisis, we should not forget that Republicans are quietly banning history ⬇️
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/freedom-di...
#bookbans #trump
As Trump floods the news with crisis after crisis, we should not forget that Republicans are quietly banning history ⬇️
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/freedom-di...
#bookbans #trump
Freedom Dies with Book Bans
Conservative hardliners in the US are pushing ahead with book bans to limit knowledge on black history, LGBTQ+ stories, and The Perks of Being a Wallflower.
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com
June 27, 2025 at 1:05 PM
👉 Freedom Dies with Book Bans
As Trump floods the news with crisis after crisis, we should not forget that Republicans are quietly banning history ⬇️
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/freedom-di...
#bookbans #trump
As Trump floods the news with crisis after crisis, we should not forget that Republicans are quietly banning history ⬇️
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/freedom-di...
#bookbans #trump
A lot of people on here are comparing Trump 2.0 to the Nazis.
So I, as a German, felt compelled to take a close look at how America's democratic decay may look like.
This seems urgent after the newest arrests
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/is-america...
So I, as a German, felt compelled to take a close look at how America's democratic decay may look like.
This seems urgent after the newest arrests
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/is-america...
Is America the New Russia?
Within a week, masked ICE agents have arrested two Democratic politicians, likely without consequences. Is the US on its way to becoming the new Russia, or something much worse?
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com
June 18, 2025 at 10:31 PM
A lot of people on here are comparing Trump 2.0 to the Nazis.
So I, as a German, felt compelled to take a close look at how America's democratic decay may look like.
This seems urgent after the newest arrests
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/is-america...
So I, as a German, felt compelled to take a close look at how America's democratic decay may look like.
This seems urgent after the newest arrests
frontlinedemocracydispatch.substack.com/p/is-america...
“Where is the great march to Los Angeles, led by Barack Obama, with hundreds of thousands of Democrats saying enough is enough?”
The Germans are worried about L.A. ⬇️
open.substack.com/pub/frontlin...
The Germans are worried about L.A. ⬇️
open.substack.com/pub/frontlin...
The Germans are Worried About L.A.
Donald Trump is escalating his attacks on Democracy, using the military against his citizens. In the country that once fell to fascism, warnings are growing.
open.substack.com
June 12, 2025 at 1:56 PM
“Where is the great march to Los Angeles, led by Barack Obama, with hundreds of thousands of Democrats saying enough is enough?”
The Germans are worried about L.A. ⬇️
open.substack.com/pub/frontlin...
The Germans are worried about L.A. ⬇️
open.substack.com/pub/frontlin...