5/ Technologically, meeting net-zero in 2050 with either 10% or no residual fossils is, essentially, a choice between CO2 storage and e-fuels. The full phase-out requires drastic up-scaling of e-fuels, while the 90% case needs more CO2 storage. Note that both technologies need CO2 capture!

4/ To avoid the last 10% of fossils, marginal abatement costs increase substantially (from 460 to 630 EUR/tCO2). However, there is quite some uncertainty (see sensitivity scenarios). Aggregate mitigation costs do not increase as much as only few sectors are affected by high marginal costs.

3/ In the 90% phase-out scenario, fossil emissions of about 260 MtCO2/yr remain mainly in chemicals, aviation and shipping. For the full phase-out, remaining natural gas and oil-based products get replaced by expensive carbon-neutral e-fuels and a shifting of #bioenergy.

2/ In addition, if we limit #CCS as much as possible (to around 100 MtCO2/yr), net-zero is achieved with a near-total phase-out of fossil fuels (>99%). The 90% phase-out can be achieved mainly by #renewables and #electrification as well as some bioenergy and hydrogen. The last 10% require #e-fuels.

1/ There are hardly any scenarios out there that reach net-zero in the EU with low or no fossil fuel use. We show that taking into the 2050 net-zero target, the EU needs to reduce fossil very substantially, by at least 90% (black dashed line).