8/

Happy to have your thoughts and feedback!

Big thanks to the co-authors! Among them:

@gunnarenergyclima.bsky.social @falkoueckerdt.bsky.social @adrianodenweller.bsky.social @rpietzcker.bsky.social from @pik-potsdam.bsky.social

7/ It is critical for the #EUCommission to start thinking about the role of residual fossils at net-zero. Uncertainty around how much fossils can still be used might deter mitigation action. Our scenario analysis informs on implications of a far-reaching (90%) and a full fossil phase-out by 2050.

6/ In summary, we find that the EU net-zero goal implies a far-reaching phase-out of fossils (90%). This already is a tremendous effort, but is well in reach. Even a full fossil phase-out would be technically possible but comes with additional transformation challenges.

5/ Technologically, meeting net-zero in 2050 with either 10% or no residual fossils is, essentially, a choice between CO2 storage and e-fuels. The full phase-out requires drastic up-scaling of e-fuels, while the 90% case needs more CO2 storage. Note that both technologies need CO2 capture!

4/ To avoid the last 10% of fossils, marginal abatement costs increase substantially (from 460 to 630 EUR/tCO2). However, there is quite some uncertainty (see sensitivity scenarios). Aggregate mitigation costs do not increase as much as only few sectors are affected by high marginal costs.

3/ In the 90% phase-out scenario, fossil emissions of about 260 MtCO2/yr remain mainly in chemicals, aviation and shipping. For the full phase-out, remaining natural gas and oil-based products get replaced by expensive carbon-neutral e-fuels and a shifting of #bioenergy.

2/ In addition, if we limit #CCS as much as possible (to around 100 MtCO2/yr), net-zero is achieved with a near-total phase-out of fossil fuels (>99%). The 90% phase-out can be achieved mainly by #renewables and #electrification as well as some bioenergy and hydrogen. The last 10% require #e-fuels.

1/ There are hardly any scenarios out there that reach net-zero in the EU with low or no fossil fuel use. We show that taking into the 2050 net-zero target, the EU needs to reduce fossil very substantially, by at least 90% (black dashed line).

This graph from @fschreyer.bsky.social and @pik-potsdam.bsky.social colleagues illustrates the dilemma nicely "LeastCost" path involved scaling up CCS faster than historical precedents. Avoiding fossil-CDR ("FosFree") means doing same for e-fuels.

www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-5...

🤔Was sogar viele Reiche als gerecht empfinden würden, passt nicht zu den Steuerplänen von Friedrich Merz. Er möchte weitere Entlastungen für hohe Einkommen.

👉Hier gehts zum Umfrage: act.gp/4hJc9Fm