Regular reminder that there is nothing unusual about long end pricing. In fact, there is scope for higher yields even with overnight rates at 3% (~ current terminal rate)

Average 30y spread to EFFR

Xmas week auctions can be nasty. GDP was a nice trigger for smashing 5s

Current surge in Silver is now at epic status as the price of the precious metal is now 69% above its 200 DMA

Outside the QE era, the UST belly (specifically 5s) does not get much richer than it is currently. Fading the belly tactically should pay off going forward. Trump's Fed chair decision has been supportive of 5s but the effect should fade after the pick is announced.

2s5s30s 'fly

Williams: No sense of urgency to adjust rates further

Comparing bubbles. Log chart of NDX

This inflation data is a big mess with clear downward bias from methodological assumptions by BLS (essentially assuming zero inflation in Oct)

A pre-Christmas bonanza of UST supply in the next week with 20s and 5y TIPs this week and 2s, 5s and 7s early next. Will be challenging with Holiday prep taking over.