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fullcarry.net
Ed Bradford
@fullcarry.net
3.1K followers 120 following 1K posts
US government bond trader since '93 with the usual stints along the way at primary dealers and HFs. Now on my own. Pseudonym
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fullcarry.net
Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 4d
Regular reminder that there is nothing unusual about long end pricing. In fact, there is scope for higher yields even with overnight rates at 3% (~ current terminal rate)

Average 30y spread to EFFR
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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 16h
FWIW: "Applications for US unemployment benefits rose (to 235,000) last week, according to a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysis of state-level filings released during the federal government shutdown."
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fullcarry.net
Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 2d
10s have been a favorite this year as more generous term premium attracted buyers to the tenor. Looking a bit pricey here relative to recent auctions but still enough TP juice to attract a bid.
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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 3d
They probably want to avoid that kind of entanglement
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Reposted by Ed Bradford
peark.es
George Pearkes @peark.es · 3d
Absolute madness.
Chart showing the performance of an equal weight index of four quantum stocks (IONQ, RGTI, QBTS, QUBT) over past two years. The index has risen 3671% since last October.
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fullcarry.net
Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 3d
The four big ones... including a former beverage company :)
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fullcarry.net
Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 3d
Starting to get spooky.... another spin up day for pure play quantum stocks.
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fullcarry.net
Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 3d
With year-end overnight rate priced at 3.64 (EFFR), it should be an easy 3y note UST auction today. WIs 3.62
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fullcarry.net
Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 4d
"blind auctions" nice!
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fullcarry.net
Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 4d
Regular reminder that there is nothing unusual about long end pricing. In fact, there is scope for higher yields even with overnight rates at 3% (~ current terminal rate)

Average 30y spread to EFFR
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fullcarry.net
Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 7d
With the continued government shutdown, no NFP print but ISM Services does have an employment index to give Ts a but of excitement. The gauge has been relatively weak recently, with Aug at 46.5
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fullcarry.net
Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 9d
Job week could be down to ADP and the ISM Services labor market gauge.

So some eye-twitching for ADP this morning?
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fullcarry.net
Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 10d
I believe you have the wrong country
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fullcarry.net
Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 10d
I do think that's the correct framing.
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fullcarry.net
Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 10d
Largest drop since April
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fullcarry.net
Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 10d
Another cycle low in the Conference Board's labor market gauge
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fullcarry.net
Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 10d
A jobs week quarter-end will cause some challenging flows next few days especially with a govt shutdown looming. With another rate cut in Oct priced above 80%, Friday's payroll print will have an outsized impact should it actually happen. Exp are for a 51K headline
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fullcarry.net
Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 14d
Yen has been the worst anti-USD play and no better measure of that than EURJPY eyeballing ATHs
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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 14d
Silver prices are now 32% above their 200 DMA and definitely overbought but it isn't epic yet.
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fullcarry.net
Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 15d
Swap spreads widened a bit after Fed's Logan floated the idea of moving to a different benchmark rate. She suggested TGCR which is an overnight funding rate for USTs and as such would make the Fed more sensitive to daily funding changes and reduces tail risks of crazy rates like 2019
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fullcarry.net
Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 16d
While I am no fan of the belly, 5s have cheapened significantly recently and is well set up for it's auction today.

2s5s30s 'fly
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fullcarry.net
Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 17d
I think it is more Zelensky stroking his ego
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fullcarry.net
Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 17d
Front-end pressure continues with supply this week (2s, 5s and 7s) but '25 rate cuts holding up with market pricing another 44 bps of cuts for the remainder of the year. 2s look attractive
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fullcarry.net
Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 18d
Last cycle EFFR started it's craziness once Bank Reserves fell below 8% of NGDP
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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 18d
SOFR will continue to be messy going into key dates like quarter-ends, settlement and tax payment dates
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fullcarry.net
Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 18d
Quiet supply week for USTs so I thought it might be useful to update my Fed balance sheet chart now that TGA is almost refilled and RRP drained. Bank reserves are down to 10% (ish) of NGDP and probably still have room to go lower before EFFR elevates.
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