Ed Bradford
@fullcarry.net
US government bond trader since '93 with the usual stints along the way at primary dealers and HFs. Now on my own. Pseudonym
Pinned
Ed Bradford
@fullcarry.net
· Oct 6
Regular reminder that there is nothing unusual about long end pricing. In fact, there is scope for higher yields even with overnight rates at 3% (~ current terminal rate)
Average 30y spread to EFFR
Average 30y spread to EFFR
High odds that a Chair Warsh would dissent at an upcoming FOMC interest rate decision. I am pretty sure that has never happened in the US.
January 31, 2026 at 8:17 PM
High odds that a Chair Warsh would dissent at an upcoming FOMC interest rate decision. I am pretty sure that has never happened in the US.
Bitcoin eyeballing 80K
January 31, 2026 at 4:55 PM
Bitcoin eyeballing 80K
Interesting Miran comment: to shrink Fed balance sheet we need regulatory reform.
Sounds like they'd like to reduce arb frictions for banks intermediating UST funding so there is better overnight rate control if reserves aren't so ample
Sounds like they'd like to reduce arb frictions for banks intermediating UST funding so there is better overnight rate control if reserves aren't so ample
January 30, 2026 at 8:25 PM
Interesting Miran comment: to shrink Fed balance sheet we need regulatory reform.
Sounds like they'd like to reduce arb frictions for banks intermediating UST funding so there is better overnight rate control if reserves aren't so ample
Sounds like they'd like to reduce arb frictions for banks intermediating UST funding so there is better overnight rate control if reserves aren't so ample
Silver 1 Day price change
January 30, 2026 at 4:20 PM
Silver 1 Day price change
PCE components of Dec PPI
January 30, 2026 at 1:32 PM
PCE components of Dec PPI
Initial reaction to Warsh last night was to dump the long end. Partial recovery since early morning though with 30s settling around 4.88
January 30, 2026 at 12:13 PM
Initial reaction to Warsh last night was to dump the long end. Partial recovery since early morning though with 30s settling around 4.88
Warsh's past criticism of the Fed's large balance sheet weighing on the long end. 30y yield up to 4.90
January 30, 2026 at 2:19 AM
Warsh's past criticism of the Fed's large balance sheet weighing on the long end. 30y yield up to 4.90
Apparently, this tweet caused the Warsh surge
January 30, 2026 at 12:29 AM
Apparently, this tweet caused the Warsh surge
Amusing how market views Warsh as more bearish than the other choices. Belly under pressure as his chances surge
January 30, 2026 at 12:22 AM
Amusing how market views Warsh as more bearish than the other choices. Belly under pressure as his chances surge
Trump will announce Fed pick tomorrow morning.
January 30, 2026 at 12:15 AM
Trump will announce Fed pick tomorrow morning.
Not sure what happened but Warsh back in the lead on Kalshi after a big move
January 29, 2026 at 11:55 PM
Not sure what happened but Warsh back in the lead on Kalshi after a big move
$MSTR 45% lower since 2024 election
January 29, 2026 at 8:05 PM
$MSTR 45% lower since 2024 election
Not as exciting as precious metals, but UST 2s5s steepeners may finally be timely as the 2yr carry/roll penalty is almost gone
January 29, 2026 at 2:13 PM
Not as exciting as precious metals, but UST 2s5s steepeners may finally be timely as the 2yr carry/roll penalty is almost gone
Trump has such a weird model of how interest rates work
January 29, 2026 at 1:05 PM
Trump has such a weird model of how interest rates work
Waller and Miran dissent. Last ditch effort by Waller to swap T
January 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM
Waller and Miran dissent. Last ditch effort by Waller to swap T
Some speculating Trump might announce his Fed chair nominee just as JP takes the podium for the FOMC presser.
January 28, 2026 at 5:44 PM
Some speculating Trump might announce his Fed chair nominee just as JP takes the podium for the FOMC presser.
Bessent: US always has a strong dollar policy.
Helping USD here
Helping USD here
January 28, 2026 at 3:08 PM
Bessent: US always has a strong dollar policy.
Helping USD here
Helping USD here
Don't see how today's FOMC statement/presser can be market moving. Near term it's all about Trump's chair choice and the confirmation hearings. Thoughts?
January 28, 2026 at 2:14 PM
Don't see how today's FOMC statement/presser can be market moving. Near term it's all about Trump's chair choice and the confirmation hearings. Thoughts?
Reposted by Ed Bradford
Census shows a dramatic slowing in population growth from declining net migration--immigration is slowing and emigration is rising, the latter can reflect both voluntary deportation & brain drain
www.census.gov/newsroom/blo...
www.census.gov/newsroom/blo...
January 27, 2026 at 5:57 PM
Census shows a dramatic slowing in population growth from declining net migration--immigration is slowing and emigration is rising, the latter can reflect both voluntary deportation & brain drain
www.census.gov/newsroom/blo...
www.census.gov/newsroom/blo...
With a boring 5y UST auction coming up, worth checking out EURUSD that's trading at the highest level since late 2021 and eyeballing 1.20
January 27, 2026 at 5:47 PM
With a boring 5y UST auction coming up, worth checking out EURUSD that's trading at the highest level since late 2021 and eyeballing 1.20
A bit late to this, but it looks like initial claims may be overstating labor market strength/ Another tumble in the Conference Board's gauge in Jan to a new cycle low.
January 27, 2026 at 4:00 PM
A bit late to this, but it looks like initial claims may be overstating labor market strength/ Another tumble in the Conference Board's gauge in Jan to a new cycle low.
For the record, silver topped intraday at 145% above its 200DMA
January 26, 2026 at 9:37 PM
For the record, silver topped intraday at 145% above its 200DMA
Definitely an epic (dare say crazy) run by Silver which is now trading more that 130% above it's 200 DMA
January 26, 2026 at 4:15 PM
Definitely an epic (dare say crazy) run by Silver which is now trading more that 130% above it's 200 DMA
Beyond PMs, Bloomberg's USD index quietly printing four year lows
January 26, 2026 at 10:58 AM
Beyond PMs, Bloomberg's USD index quietly printing four year lows