Ed Bradford
@fullcarry.net
US government bond trader since '93 with the usual stints along the way at primary dealers and HFs. Now on my own. Pseudonym
Pinned
Ed Bradford
@fullcarry.net
· Oct 6
Regular reminder that there is nothing unusual about long end pricing. In fact, there is scope for higher yields even with overnight rates at 3% (~ current terminal rate)
Average 30y spread to EFFR
Average 30y spread to EFFR
A pre-Christmas bonanza of UST supply in the next week with 20s and 5y TIPs this week and 2s, 5s and 7s early next. Will be challenging with Holiday prep taking over.
December 17, 2025 at 1:47 PM
A pre-Christmas bonanza of UST supply in the next week with 20s and 5y TIPs this week and 2s, 5s and 7s early next. Will be challenging with Holiday prep taking over.
Trump to interview Waller for Fed chair.
December 16, 2025 at 7:26 PM
Trump to interview Waller for Fed chair.
With some help from collapsing crude prices, 1-year inflation swaps have unwound the whole tariff surge.
December 16, 2025 at 4:59 PM
With some help from collapsing crude prices, 1-year inflation swaps have unwound the whole tariff surge.
Belly on fire after double NFP print as 5s30s tops 114 bps.
December 16, 2025 at 1:40 PM
Belly on fire after double NFP print as 5s30s tops 114 bps.
Tame wages and UER at cycle high
December 16, 2025 at 1:31 PM
Tame wages and UER at cycle high
"Is it too late to change my name to Kevin?"
December 15, 2025 at 1:27 PM
"Is it too late to change my name to Kevin?"
UST funding premium as reflected in swap spreads has been coming off since mid-Sept when Fed's Logan floated the idea of TGCR as the new Fed rate target. Recent reg relief has reduced the premium even further. For now at least, fiscal pressure taking a back seat to Trump's Fed chair decision
December 15, 2025 at 1:13 PM
UST funding premium as reflected in swap spreads has been coming off since mid-Sept when Fed's Logan floated the idea of TGCR as the new Fed rate target. Recent reg relief has reduced the premium even further. For now at least, fiscal pressure taking a back seat to Trump's Fed chair decision
Reposted by Ed Bradford
Probably the most constructive thing you’ll read today.
GOLDMAN: “.. Shelter inflation is set to sustainably undershoot its pre-pandemic pace. .. PCE housing inflation will slow to .. 2.1% year-over-year in December 2026. .. another reason we expect near-target inflation next year.”
GOLDMAN: “.. Shelter inflation is set to sustainably undershoot its pre-pandemic pace. .. PCE housing inflation will slow to .. 2.1% year-over-year in December 2026. .. another reason we expect near-target inflation next year.”
December 12, 2025 at 6:08 PM
Probably the most constructive thing you’ll read today.
GOLDMAN: “.. Shelter inflation is set to sustainably undershoot its pre-pandemic pace. .. PCE housing inflation will slow to .. 2.1% year-over-year in December 2026. .. another reason we expect near-target inflation next year.”
GOLDMAN: “.. Shelter inflation is set to sustainably undershoot its pre-pandemic pace. .. PCE housing inflation will slow to .. 2.1% year-over-year in December 2026. .. another reason we expect near-target inflation next year.”
2s5s back above 20 bps, first since crazy April
December 12, 2025 at 1:12 PM
2s5s back above 20 bps, first since crazy April
Quiet 30y auction (reopening) sneaking up here. Should go well with curve steep and year-end long-end seasonality usually a thing
December 11, 2025 at 5:08 PM
Quiet 30y auction (reopening) sneaking up here. Should go well with curve steep and year-end long-end seasonality usually a thing
Silver (the new bitcoin) has been on an epic run and is now up 56% above its 200 DMA
December 11, 2025 at 2:38 PM
Silver (the new bitcoin) has been on an epic run and is now up 56% above its 200 DMA
Reversal of recent trend with initial jobless claims perking up while continuing pulled back by 100K
December 11, 2025 at 1:31 PM
Reversal of recent trend with initial jobless claims perking up while continuing pulled back by 100K
Reserve management purchases
December 10, 2025 at 7:02 PM
Reserve management purchases
2s5s trades north of 18 bps briefly as curve starts to price the end of the cut cycle. Assuming a low 3% terminal rate, 2s5s still has plenty of room to steepen.
December 10, 2025 at 2:47 PM
2s5s trades north of 18 bps briefly as curve starts to price the end of the cut cycle. Assuming a low 3% terminal rate, 2s5s still has plenty of room to steepen.
Fed friendly private industry wage YoY now 3.6%.
December 10, 2025 at 1:33 PM
Fed friendly private industry wage YoY now 3.6%.
SERFFers hoping for some kind of fix to overnight rates from Fed today. I very much doubt they tweak IOR since they likely view current upward rate pressure as temporary and related to year-end.
December 10, 2025 at 1:11 PM
SERFFers hoping for some kind of fix to overnight rates from Fed today. I very much doubt they tweak IOR since they likely view current upward rate pressure as temporary and related to year-end.
Post-cut UST 2s will be only 5bps off of IOR, the best level since early this year
December 9, 2025 at 4:00 PM
Post-cut UST 2s will be only 5bps off of IOR, the best level since early this year
JOLTS headline pressuring front-end Ts but Quit Rate makes a new cycle low
December 9, 2025 at 3:03 PM
JOLTS headline pressuring front-end Ts but Quit Rate makes a new cycle low
Supply in the face of impaired year-end balance sheets pressuring USTs with belly feeling it the most. 2s5s above 16 bps, steepest since crazy April.
December 8, 2025 at 3:06 PM
Supply in the face of impaired year-end balance sheets pressuring USTs with belly feeling it the most. 2s5s above 16 bps, steepest since crazy April.
Notable surge in CAD 2s today as well
December 5, 2025 at 4:03 PM
Notable surge in CAD 2s today as well
Reposted by Ed Bradford
*UMICH SHORT- AND LONG-RUN INFL EXPS FALL TO 11-MONTH LOWS
December 5, 2025 at 3:00 PM
*UMICH SHORT- AND LONG-RUN INFL EXPS FALL TO 11-MONTH LOWS
I am not sure why this is happening but market pricing cut cycle terminal a touch higher vs last week. If anything background noise (data and Hassett chatter) had been supportive of deeper cuts
December 5, 2025 at 2:08 PM
I am not sure why this is happening but market pricing cut cycle terminal a touch higher vs last week. If anything background noise (data and Hassett chatter) had been supportive of deeper cuts
December 4, 2025 at 2:23 PM
ISM Services labor market gauge remains below 50 (48.9)
December 3, 2025 at 3:01 PM
ISM Services labor market gauge remains below 50 (48.9)