Ed Bradford
@fullcarry.net
US government bond trader since '93 with the usual stints along the way at primary dealers and HFs. Now on my own. Pseudonym
With some help from collapsing crude prices, 1-year inflation swaps have unwound the whole tariff surge.
December 16, 2025 at 4:59 PM
With some help from collapsing crude prices, 1-year inflation swaps have unwound the whole tariff surge.
Belly on fire after double NFP print as 5s30s tops 114 bps.
December 16, 2025 at 1:40 PM
Belly on fire after double NFP print as 5s30s tops 114 bps.
"Is it too late to change my name to Kevin?"
December 15, 2025 at 1:27 PM
"Is it too late to change my name to Kevin?"
UST funding premium as reflected in swap spreads has been coming off since mid-Sept when Fed's Logan floated the idea of TGCR as the new Fed rate target. Recent reg relief has reduced the premium even further. For now at least, fiscal pressure taking a back seat to Trump's Fed chair decision
December 15, 2025 at 1:13 PM
UST funding premium as reflected in swap spreads has been coming off since mid-Sept when Fed's Logan floated the idea of TGCR as the new Fed rate target. Recent reg relief has reduced the premium even further. For now at least, fiscal pressure taking a back seat to Trump's Fed chair decision
2s5s back above 20 bps, first since crazy April
December 12, 2025 at 1:12 PM
2s5s back above 20 bps, first since crazy April
Globes oldest vs newest money in the past year normalized
December 11, 2025 at 2:47 PM
Globes oldest vs newest money in the past year normalized
Sorry wrong chart before. Corrected
December 11, 2025 at 2:40 PM
Sorry wrong chart before. Corrected
Silver (the new bitcoin) has been on an epic run and is now up 56% above its 200 DMA
December 11, 2025 at 2:38 PM
Silver (the new bitcoin) has been on an epic run and is now up 56% above its 200 DMA
Reserve management purchases
December 10, 2025 at 7:02 PM
Reserve management purchases
2s5s trades north of 18 bps briefly as curve starts to price the end of the cut cycle. Assuming a low 3% terminal rate, 2s5s still has plenty of room to steepen.
December 10, 2025 at 2:47 PM
2s5s trades north of 18 bps briefly as curve starts to price the end of the cut cycle. Assuming a low 3% terminal rate, 2s5s still has plenty of room to steepen.
Fed friendly private industry wage YoY now 3.6%.
December 10, 2025 at 1:33 PM
Fed friendly private industry wage YoY now 3.6%.
Post-cut UST 2s will be only 5bps off of IOR, the best level since early this year
December 9, 2025 at 4:00 PM
Post-cut UST 2s will be only 5bps off of IOR, the best level since early this year
JOLTS headline pressuring front-end Ts but Quit Rate makes a new cycle low
December 9, 2025 at 3:03 PM
JOLTS headline pressuring front-end Ts but Quit Rate makes a new cycle low
Also, cut cycle terminal rate now 20 bps higher vs two weeks ago
December 8, 2025 at 3:20 PM
Also, cut cycle terminal rate now 20 bps higher vs two weeks ago
Supply in the face of impaired year-end balance sheets pressuring USTs with belly feeling it the most. 2s5s above 16 bps, steepest since crazy April.
December 8, 2025 at 3:06 PM
Supply in the face of impaired year-end balance sheets pressuring USTs with belly feeling it the most. 2s5s above 16 bps, steepest since crazy April.
Notable surge in CAD 2s today as well
December 5, 2025 at 4:03 PM
Notable surge in CAD 2s today as well
I am not sure why this is happening but market pricing cut cycle terminal a touch higher vs last week. If anything background noise (data and Hassett chatter) had been supportive of deeper cuts
December 5, 2025 at 2:08 PM
I am not sure why this is happening but market pricing cut cycle terminal a touch higher vs last week. If anything background noise (data and Hassett chatter) had been supportive of deeper cuts
And to the Trichet caucus of inflation worriers, forward market measures of inflation have been trending down and are tame and at target
December 3, 2025 at 1:43 PM
And to the Trichet caucus of inflation worriers, forward market measures of inflation have been trending down and are tame and at target
Looks like Bloomberg is giving up on figuring out the exact timing of economic data prints. Best they can offer is a date range
December 2, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Looks like Bloomberg is giving up on figuring out the exact timing of economic data prints. Best they can offer is a date range
With inflation sticky, confidence is growing that the cut cycle won't extend beyond 3% and USTs adjusting to that reality and pricing a very normal looking yield curve.
1-Year forward chart
1-Year forward chart
December 1, 2025 at 5:08 PM
With inflation sticky, confidence is growing that the cut cycle won't extend beyond 3% and USTs adjusting to that reality and pricing a very normal looking yield curve.
1-Year forward chart
1-Year forward chart
PMIs haven't been that useful this cycle NTL another ugly Chicago PMI print 36
November 26, 2025 at 2:49 PM
PMIs haven't been that useful this cycle NTL another ugly Chicago PMI print 36
Great article and yes I agree with gist. Of course, reserves are no longer abundant but some of the recent turmoil is TGA related with the enormous number of TBills issued and govt shutdown ballooning the account. Add in year-end agita building up and this isn't too suprising. Perspective vs '19
November 7, 2025 at 3:55 PM
Great article and yes I agree with gist. Of course, reserves are no longer abundant but some of the recent turmoil is TGA related with the enormous number of TBills issued and govt shutdown ballooning the account. Add in year-end agita building up and this isn't too suprising. Perspective vs '19