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Reposted by Gerard DiPippo

Bartapest @bartapest.bsky.social · 15d

Four-fifths of China’s lost exports to the US have already found alternative markets in the second quarter, the top destinations being Southeast Asia and Europe: www.hinrichfoundation.com/research/art... @gdp1985.bsky.social #trade

China goes to (trade) war

Eighty-two percent of China’s lost exports to the US found alternative markets in Southeast Asia and Europe, a diversion that likely benefited from Beijing’s policy support.

www.hinrichfoundation.com

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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 17d

In my CLM piece, I argue that PRC exporters have found new markets for ~80% of their lost exports to the US and transshipment is low. I updated those figures to include July data. The conclusion is the same. To the extent there is transshipment, it's mostly via SE Asia.

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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · Sep 1

In the latest China Leadership Monitor, I offer some thoughts on China's economy in the trade war. Lots of charts!

www.prcleader.org/post/changin...

Changing Course in a Storm: China’s Economy in the Trade War | China Leadership Monitor

China is weathering deflation, a property-sector collapse, and renewed trade tensions with the United States through calculated restraint rather than panic. Exports remain resilient via market diversi...

www.prcleader.org

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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · Aug 1

China nerds, rejoice! The Relevant Organs is back and on here. Follow them for all the news you need.

@relevantorgans.bsky.social

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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · Jul 20

Facing U.S. tariffs, China’s exports to the U.S. are down—while exports to Southeast Asia are up. Is that trade diversion and potential transshipment? My estimate: at most 34% of the increased PRC exports to SE Asia in Q2 could reflect trade diverted from the United States.

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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · Jun 12

The US and China have a new framework to de-escalate. Whether that'll be durable is unclear. What is clear is that China can and will weaponize its export dominance. We discuss what the trade war teaches us about China's economy in our new RAND Commentary. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...

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Reposted by Gerard DiPippo

Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · May 21

I'll be on a stellar panel this evening discussing the resilience of China's economy. I'll be providing the view from Europe.

With the excellent Jude Blanchette, @fraghi.bsky.social @gdp1985.bsky.social - for fans of imposter syndrome, this is not to be missed!

www.rand.org/randeurope/a...

How Resilient Is China’s Economy?

Have decades of economic planning rendered China’s economy more resilient to external shocks? RAND Europe aims to address this critical question by convening leading experts who will delve into the st...

www.rand.org

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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · Apr 18

The Trump administration is trying to reindustrialize with tariffs, especially on China. But China has lessons to teach the US about industrial strategy. A new RAND Commentary with @fraghi.bsky.social and Benjamin Lenain. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...

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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · Apr 12

I would interpret the US tariff exemptions primarily as an attempt to mitigate the impact on electronics and consumers more than as a signal of a US-China deal. The exempted categories cover about 22% of US imports from China. content.govdelivery.com/bulletins/gd...

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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · Apr 8

So, CA deficit contributing to CA surplus (income) rather than CA deficit contributing to FA surplus. Got it.

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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · Mar 30

Which US industries are most exposed to the China market? Looking at US majority-owned foreign affiliates, the answer is wholesale trade, computers & electronics, chemicals & pharma, autos, and semiconductors. This could matter for US-China talks and potential PRC retaliation to US tariffs.

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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · Mar 26

Taiwan is nervous. With good reason. Jude Blanchette and I discuss in our new RAND Commentary. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...

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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · Mar 16

China's total fiscal deficit is set to increase by at least 2 percentage points of GDP in 2025. That's maybe not the massive stimulus some wanted, but it's not small either. The question is the composition and effectiveness of the measures.

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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · Mar 4

China's retaliation to the new 20% US tariffs:

- 10-15% tariffs on US ag imports
- 10 US firms on Unreliable Entities List
- 15 US firms on export control list (Illumina maybe most affected)
- No product-specific export controls

Less than proportional response.

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Reposted by Gerard DiPippo

Simon Lester @simonlester.com · Mar 1

This is a strong possibility.

Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · Mar 1

An insane theory I am starting to believe more every day is that they are just going to keep repeating the “threaten 25% Canada & Mexico tariffs alongside a 10% hike on China tariffs, back off the Canada & Mexico tariffs while implementing the China tariffs” every month until China tariffs are 60%

Kevin Wilson @kwilsonhfx.bsky.social · Mar 1

I think they'll settle on "do tariffs on China" for what it's worth.

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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · Feb 27

China/BRI nerds, does anyone know if MOFCOM expanded the countries it counts as BRI in its stats? Is there a list by year? Reported BRI projects and investment surged in 2023. Is this due to categorization?

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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · Feb 24

China Econ and Trade nerds, apply to this!

Penn Project on the Future of U.S.-China Relations @penn-us-china.bsky.social · Feb 24

One week to go before the application deadline of this Friday, February 28! Please circulate this call widely to relevant potential applicants, to help us benefit from as strong and diverse an applicant pool as possible.

Penn Project on the Future of U.S.-China Relations @penn-us-china.bsky.social · Jan 27

We are thrilled to issue the call for applications (global.upenn.edu/future-of-us...) for our third fellowship cohort, made possible by generous support from @carnegiecorp.bsky.social and the Henry Luce Foundation. Applications are due February 28.

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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · Feb 23

I meant "slowdown" in terms of GDP growth *rates*. But if you want *absolute* GDP growth for China and the US, here you go! Whether one uses nominal growth at market exchange rates, real growth at fixed exchange rates, or nominal growth at PPP exchange rates makes a difference.

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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · Feb 22

Yes. But then I added NEVs (they defined it before NEVs were big) so people wouldn't ask about the very-popular NEVs.

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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · Feb 22

a little girl is asking why not both while standing in a kitchen .

ALT: a little girl is asking why not both while standing in a kitchen .

media.tenor.com

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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · Feb 22

Do it anyway

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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · Feb 20

Two narratives about China's economy:
- Macro weakness
- Technological and industrial strength

They're both true! How? The "new economy" is a small share of the overall economy. I discuss in a new RAND Commentary.

www.rand.org/pubs/comment...

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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · Feb 17

When in Taipei...

Perfect broth. NTD 200 ($6). 😋

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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · Feb 6

In that case, the "skills" people were wrong. It *was* an aggregate demand problem. Those people got jobs when the economy improved but with lasting harms. Young Chinese shouldn't similarly blame themselves for macro policy failures. 2/

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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · Feb 6

Excellent Baiguan piece on 🇨🇳 youth unemployment with data and stories. This reminds me of the "skills mismatch" debate after the US Great Recession. People said the problem was poor or incorrect training or education. Others said it was just a demand problem. 1/ open.substack.com/pub/baiguan/...

Four stories of Chinese youth breaking through high unemployment

Youth unemployment has emerged as a pressing social issue in China.

open.substack.com

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