Gavin Hales
@gmhales.bsky.social
Researching/discussing policing, crime and the criminal justice system. Senior Associate Fellow @policefoundationuk.bsky.social but my own views.
Based in London, UK.
Based in London, UK.
Is it designed to defeat AI? It brought this to mind en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dazzle_...
December 13, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Is it designed to defeat AI? It brought this to mind en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dazzle_...
I get the impression a key driver is expected efficiency savings, with an eye very much on Police Scotland where it is reported they have saved £200m/yr compared to the previous 8 force structure www.police-foundation.org.uk/policingrevi...
December 11, 2025 at 8:23 AM
I get the impression a key driver is expected efficiency savings, with an eye very much on Police Scotland where it is reported they have saved £200m/yr compared to the previous 8 force structure www.police-foundation.org.uk/policingrevi...
£200m/ year www.police-foundation.org.uk/policingrevi...
December 11, 2025 at 7:21 AM
£200m/ year www.police-foundation.org.uk/policingrevi...
For info, there is no need to FOI crime outcomes data, as they are published by the Home Office and updated every quarter - scroll down to the 'open data' here www.gov.uk/government/s...
E.g. here are the rape outcomes recorded in 2024/25
E.g. here are the rape outcomes recorded in 2024/25
December 10, 2025 at 7:33 PM
For info, there is no need to FOI crime outcomes data, as they are published by the Home Office and updated every quarter - scroll down to the 'open data' here www.gov.uk/government/s...
E.g. here are the rape outcomes recorded in 2024/25
E.g. here are the rape outcomes recorded in 2024/25
This quote from Abimbola Johnson is interesting - that any facial recognition tech must reduce disparity, not simply not compound it.
December 10, 2025 at 4:49 PM
This quote from Abimbola Johnson is interesting - that any facial recognition tech must reduce disparity, not simply not compound it.
Interesting re retrospective facial recognition - trade off between leads/hits and bias www.theguardian.com/technology/2...
December 10, 2025 at 4:28 PM
Interesting re retrospective facial recognition - trade off between leads/hits and bias www.theguardian.com/technology/2...
If this is at all representative, ordinarily very few people arrested by the Met aren't already known by the police service www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/supe...
December 8, 2025 at 10:35 PM
If this is at all representative, ordinarily very few people arrested by the Met aren't already known by the police service www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/supe...
Around 4/5 s60 stops over the last 2 years (83%) took place in the month of August, and 90% of those took place in Kensington & Chelsea or Westminster. That points to the use of s60 primarily being concerned with Carnival.
December 8, 2025 at 6:02 PM
Around 4/5 s60 stops over the last 2 years (83%) took place in the month of August, and 90% of those took place in Kensington & Chelsea or Westminster. That points to the use of s60 primarily being concerned with Carnival.
If you cross-tabulate the self-defined ethnicity (SDE) and ethnic appearance (EA) variables, you'll see that only 3.3% of s60 records have no EA recorded, and the gaps in SDE are almost all 'not stated', which means SDE was requested but not provided.
December 8, 2025 at 5:40 PM
If you cross-tabulate the self-defined ethnicity (SDE) and ethnic appearance (EA) variables, you'll see that only 3.3% of s60 records have no EA recorded, and the gaps in SDE are almost all 'not stated', which means SDE was requested but not provided.
I wasn't aware until just now that the Home Office recently published the findings of the 2023 Police Activity Survey www.gov.uk/government/p...
December 7, 2025 at 10:54 AM
I wasn't aware until just now that the Home Office recently published the findings of the 2023 Police Activity Survey www.gov.uk/government/p...
Interestingly, the MPS workforce data includes Black British and Asian British options. Relatively large numbers in the former. www.met.police.uk/police-force...
December 1, 2025 at 8:20 AM
Interestingly, the MPS workforce data includes Black British and Asian British options. Relatively large numbers in the former. www.met.police.uk/police-force...
Second, arrest v positive outcome rates.
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November 30, 2025 at 4:36 PM
Second, arrest v positive outcome rates.
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A couple of other charts, for the sake of completeness. First, positive outcome v S&S rates.
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November 30, 2025 at 4:35 PM
A couple of other charts, for the sake of completeness. First, positive outcome v S&S rates.
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Importantly, there is generally a high degree of alignment between SDE and officer-perceived ethnic appearance, especially for the main ethnic groups. Notably, at least 4/5 people who self-identify as White/Black mixed heritage are recorded as having a Black appearance.
November 29, 2025 at 3:52 PM
Importantly, there is generally a high degree of alignment between SDE and officer-perceived ethnic appearance, especially for the main ethnic groups. Notably, at least 4/5 people who self-identify as White/Black mixed heritage are recorded as having a Black appearance.
It may be of interest that in stop and search data, Black people are more likely than White and Asian to have their self-defined ethnicity recorded as 'not stated'. That means that if SDE is used for calculating disproportionality, Black disproportionality will be under-stated.
November 29, 2025 at 3:52 PM
It may be of interest that in stop and search data, Black people are more likely than White and Asian to have their self-defined ethnicity recorded as 'not stated'. That means that if SDE is used for calculating disproportionality, Black disproportionality will be under-stated.
This is also interesting: there's quite a consistent pattern where forces with a higher % of non-White stops have a higher % of self-defined ethnicity (SDE) recorded as 'not stated'. West Mids, W Yorks and CoLP appear to be outliers.
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November 29, 2025 at 2:58 PM
This is also interesting: there's quite a consistent pattern where forces with a higher % of non-White stops have a higher % of self-defined ethnicity (SDE) recorded as 'not stated'. West Mids, W Yorks and CoLP appear to be outliers.
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One addition, which I think is very important - comparing stop and search criminality detected/positive outcome rates by subject ethnicity and police force.
Very little difference at force-level suggests the bar for suspicion is applied quite consistently.
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Very little difference at force-level suggests the bar for suspicion is applied quite consistently.
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November 29, 2025 at 1:25 PM
One addition, which I think is very important - comparing stop and search criminality detected/positive outcome rates by subject ethnicity and police force.
Very little difference at force-level suggests the bar for suspicion is applied quite consistently.
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Very little difference at force-level suggests the bar for suspicion is applied quite consistently.
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And looking at the data for 2024/25, it is notable that the Met is the only force to have both above average rates of stop and search (per 1,000) and resulting arrest rates. Lincs' arrest rate is conspicuously low.
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November 29, 2025 at 12:57 PM
And looking at the data for 2024/25, it is notable that the Met is the only force to have both above average rates of stop and search (per 1,000) and resulting arrest rates. Lincs' arrest rate is conspicuously low.
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Looking at arrest rates by police force over time, I was interested to see that arrest rates in the Met are now higher than those in comparative forces. That was also the case around 2013-16, when S&S volumes/rates in the MPS were also low by historic standards.
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November 29, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Looking at arrest rates by police force over time, I was interested to see that arrest rates in the Met are now higher than those in comparative forces. That was also the case around 2013-16, when S&S volumes/rates in the MPS were also low by historic standards.
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Next, I was interested to see what has happened to S&S arrest rates. It's interesting to see that arrest rates have increased in recent years, despite overall S&S volumes not changing much - which is not consistent with the long-term picture.
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November 29, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Next, I was interested to see what has happened to S&S arrest rates. It's interesting to see that arrest rates have increased in recent years, despite overall S&S volumes not changing much - which is not consistent with the long-term picture.
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I've been having a rummage in the most recent Home Office stop and search data, published earlier this month. The first thing to note is that Merseyside Police are out on their own in terms of rates per 1,000 population. #stopsearch.
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November 29, 2025 at 12:57 PM
I've been having a rummage in the most recent Home Office stop and search data, published earlier this month. The first thing to note is that Merseyside Police are out on their own in terms of rates per 1,000 population. #stopsearch.
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An example of a "telling not reporting" case that will have been counted as victim withdrawal, where there was no 'report' as anyone would commonly understand that word.
November 25, 2025 at 9:34 AM
An example of a "telling not reporting" case that will have been counted as victim withdrawal, where there was no 'report' as anyone would commonly understand that word.
BBC News - "Gardeners unearth stolen phones left by snatchers"
One example of how and why police can stop and search the right people but find nothing.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
One example of how and why police can stop and search the right people but find nothing.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
November 25, 2025 at 7:17 AM
BBC News - "Gardeners unearth stolen phones left by snatchers"
One example of how and why police can stop and search the right people but find nothing.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
One example of how and why police can stop and search the right people but find nothing.
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Bucket list night out watching Radiohead at the O2 yesterday with my wife and kids. First time I've seen them live in 30+ years of listening to them and it was relentlessly magnificent.
November 22, 2025 at 12:37 PM
Bucket list night out watching Radiohead at the O2 yesterday with my wife and kids. First time I've seen them live in 30+ years of listening to them and it was relentlessly magnificent.
The officer who appeared in the Panorama documentary boasting about beating a detainee's legs with his baton made up that account, which didn't happen. He was dismissed without notice. www.met.police.uk/foi-ai/metro...
November 14, 2025 at 9:15 PM
The officer who appeared in the Panorama documentary boasting about beating a detainee's legs with his baton made up that account, which didn't happen. He was dismissed without notice. www.met.police.uk/foi-ai/metro...