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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 11h

Yes, Spurs ticket prices will increase. Historical arena mean yoy chg is 14% in real terms. If pricing this year is near resale, and if arena opened this year, it'd be ~$35 mean price increase. Ticket taxes don't explain the increase, as its historically about 3%. news4sanantonio.com/news/local/f...

Fans question ticket affordability as Spurs arena vote nears

SAN ANTIONIO - With election day four weeks out, San Antonio voters soon will decide if visitor tax dollars should fund a new Spurs arena.But some are questioni

news4sanantonio.com

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 8d

Figured I'd poke at the Arlington Heights consultant report. 5400+ FTE at full build out. They propose 613k sqft of hotel+retail+office, or a min 8.8 workers/1k sqft. CBECS survey, tho, reports aggregate mean for these uses is 3 workers/1k sqft. So, yeah, 8.8 seems a pretty aggressive assumption.

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 13d

Deceptive headline from a Post editor suggesting Denver's proposed NWSL stadium is causing new housing development. The author points out (and city permits corroborate) this building has been in development for 9 years. The stadium was only approved this year. www.denverpost.com/2025/09/25/d...

Denver developer plans 75 apartments on Santa Fe near NWSL stadium site

A Denver developer plans 75 apartments on Santa Fe Drive near the site of a future NWSL stadium in the Overland neighborhood.

www.denverpost.com

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 14d

A San Antonio journalist told me today that the mayor has started receiving police protection because of threats against her and her family for her attempts to slow the project and allow for more policy evaluation. Anyone know if the Spurs or NBA have issued a statement on this?

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Reposted by Geoffrey Propheter

J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.bsky.social · 20d

Dennis (@dcoatesecon.bsky.social) and Brad (@bradhumphreys.bsky.social) deserve tremendous credit for elevating the rigor of research into sports economics questions and fostering a vibrant research community.

naasecon.bsky.social @naasecon.bsky.social · 20d

A nicely done story about Dennis Coates and Brad Humphreys:

umbc.edu/stories/denn...

2025 Dennis Coates Closes Out His 30th Year At UMBC At The Top Of His Game With An Award From The North American Association Of Sports Economists

The North American Association of Sports Economists established an award in Dennis Coates name and his long-time research partner, Brad R. Humphreys's honor.

umbc.edu

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 21d

I don't know which I laughed at harder: DC council giving more thoughtfulness to an amendment to give a CBA citizen group spending authority than it did to giving $6b+ to Harris, or Frumin saying "I said I'd vote 'no' if I didn't get what I wanted. Well, I didn't, but f it, I'll vote 'yes' anyway."

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 21d

This is a false but common interpretation of most states' post-Kelo ED laws. In CO, the Broncos can use ED through a metro district which it controls fully. Courts only need to see that lawmakers believed a project has some public benefit.
www.denverpost.com/2025/09/17/d...

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 25d

But the only nfl stadium that can claim it has received next to no preferential, ad hoc subsidy treatment is sofi. The other 5 received land, heavily discounted land rents, infrastructure improvements, etc, all of which are subsidies that help make the stadium possible.

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 25d

This statement is false, and it repeats the falsehood in the cited article. It also trades on ambiguity of the meaning of private. If you limit to strictly private debt for brick and mortar at time of construction, hard rock stad, fedex field, BoA stad also count. www.independent.org/article/2025...

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 25d

What the f is going on in public finance related journalism? I refuse to believe any “journalist” is this stupid. Econ dev official says tax incentives don’t take money from the govt. Literally that’s what any tax break is.

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 27d

It's true; I said it. It's also true that I didn't think they'd use that sound bite. I don't recall saying it with the level of enthusiasm that would warrant an exclamation mark. It's tough being a sports policy wonk when there's nothing to be wonky about (yet).
denver.citycast.fm/explainers/w...

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 29d

Lawmakers are a little too excited for the magnitude of residential and commercial gentrification that's gonna happen. I mean, lawmaking is about picking winners and losers, but at least try to temper your enthusiasm to displace people and businesses. www.denverpost.com/2025/09/09/b...

Broncos name Burnham Yard preferred site for new stadium development

The 58-acre yard is the epicenter of what the Broncos hope will be a transformative project, anchored by a multi-billion dollar stadium and flanked by an entertainment district designed to host eve…

www.denverpost.com

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 29d

Apparently Broncos will make their Burnham Yards stadium announcement official today. Apparently they'll also be paying for the stadium themselves. Hahaha.

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · Sep 5

The SA Current explainer doesn't include the mid-lease renovation commitment, which in PV terms would be in the $250-$400m range. In future value terms, ~15 yrs from now, it's $4-600m. So, yeah, it's safe to start using a $1b figure in taxpayer resources as the floor so far.

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Reposted by Geoffrey Propheter

Good Jobs First @goodjobsfirst.org · Sep 2

Meta's Economic Development Subsidies Lead:
"Our data centers, they're the backbone of everything that Meta ultimately does."

Exactly why companies should get NO public money for building them. Meta instead should pay the communities where it locates.
www.kshb.com/news/local-n...

Meta's Northland data center now operational

Meta’s data center in the Northland is operational as of Wednesday, Aug. 20. The center broke ground in 2022.

www.kshb.com

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · Aug 29

Astros ptax situation has lots of unanswered questions. But it got at least one reporter interested in my other policy world: ptax admin. Never trust roll values for exempt prop. Here are FMVs of 3 facilities when exemption turns on/off. Exempt values are on autopilot.
www.chron.com/sports/astro...

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · Aug 27

I hear that Fisher's backup plan is to stay in Sac and use the foundation already poured in the late 1980s for an A's stadium. He'll keep the reservoir and re-envision baseball as a water sport to save more money.

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · Aug 26

Garbage selective reporting. Seattle would have had the Sac Kings 6 yrs after Sonics left if the NBA approved the sale to Hansen. His deal was generous to taxpayers by today standards. Giants and Blue Jackets lost 5 votes each and ended up building on their own.

www.bizjournals.com/sanantonio/n...

www.bizjournals.com

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · Aug 22

Spurs MOU commits city/co to $1.1b ds pv. So far only $151m pv comes from Spurs (rent+cba). Sure, team is building stuff, but they'll control land use for their own profit and ptaxes earmarked for their interests. With a competitive RFP, city could do way better. sanantonioreport.org/city-council...

San Antonio City Council OKs framework for $1.3B Spurs arena

Mayor Gina Ortiz Jones sought to pause negotiations on a downtown Spurs arena, but her colleagues overwhelmingly supported making a deal.

sanantonioreport.org

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · Aug 20

TS addendum says it is void if either the Bexar voters reject the hotel tax increase or the SA voters reject the infra debt, which I think is interesting. But if this happens, still a ton of time to go back to the drawing board, which is why I don't get councilmembers' rush. I get the team's rush.

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · Aug 20

TS is boilerplate; there's nothing I haven't seen elsewhere. So I don't have new criticisms; only the usual ones like ancillary should come first, not last. Team already donates ~$1m a year to charities. I read the TS as saying the $2.5m/yr includes the ~$1m it already gives; it's not in addition.

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · Aug 6

As a researcher I'm excited for another sports facility vote. The city should have one too. The hotel tax IS a tax on residents. City+county officials think raising hotel tax rates will attract more visitors. Nothing says "Visit San Antonio" like a 17% hotel tax.
www.ksat.com/news/local/2...

Venue tax hike for new Spurs arena goes to Bexar County voters in November

Bexar County voters will have their first — and likely only — chance to vote on a new Spurs arena in the Nov. 4 election.

www.ksat.com

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · Aug 5

Another reminder that even good journalists may be poor at reporting on sports facility and public policy matters. This was a missed opportunity to offer better information. contrarian.substack.com/p/offsides-w...

Offsides with Pablo Torre: A new Washington Commanders stadium & the future of sports journalism

"Standard fare is that it's always capitalism until there's a convenient socialism for the billionaires who don't want to pay full freight."

contrarian.substack.com

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · Aug 1

Chairman Mendelson just said he doesn't think gentrification pressures will happen immediately; it'll only happen after the stadium is completed 5 years in the future. He has no idea about the real estate and sports facility research. Speculators start speculating as soon as a project is green lit.

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Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · Jul 30

Teams use the same excuse repeatedly about financial confidentiality, and the only reason why this excuse works is because most lawmakers are pushovers or have been bought off. All subsidies in the name of econ dev should require public disclosure of GAAP compliant financials.

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