Matt Elliott
@graphicmatt.com
City columnist, contributing to the Toronto Star & writing the award-winning City Hall Watcher newsletter. A lot about Toronto Politics and then some nerd stuff. Humber College prof. (he/him)
The CFO wraps things up with a look at the snake we'll be riding for the next few weeks. Budget presentations next week. Deputations the week after that. Mayor Chow will release her bespoke budget on Feb 1. Council will debate on Feb 10. Then: sleep.
January 8, 2026 at 5:22 PM
The CFO wraps things up with a look at the snake we'll be riding for the next few weeks. Budget presentations next week. Deputations the week after that. Mayor Chow will release her bespoke budget on Feb 1. Council will debate on Feb 10. Then: sleep.
The City is coming really close to hitting its debt limit with the current ten-year capital spending plan. Flying really close to the sun here.
January 8, 2026 at 4:57 PM
The City is coming really close to hitting its debt limit with the current ten-year capital spending plan. Flying really close to the sun here.
Municipal land transfer tax revenue has been erratic, but still important. City is budgeting for $850 million in revenue this year. Cutting the local LTT would require a property tax increase of about 16.1%.
January 8, 2026 at 4:54 PM
Municipal land transfer tax revenue has been erratic, but still important. City is budgeting for $850 million in revenue this year. Cutting the local LTT would require a property tax increase of about 16.1%.
The city ran a bunch of consultations on the budget, as the city is wont to do.
Popular services to fund were affordable housing/shelters, transit, and traffic improvements.
Least important? Festivals, police, and... animals? Harsh.
Popular services to fund were affordable housing/shelters, transit, and traffic improvements.
Least important? Festivals, police, and... animals? Harsh.
January 8, 2026 at 4:51 PM
The city ran a bunch of consultations on the budget, as the city is wont to do.
Popular services to fund were affordable housing/shelters, transit, and traffic improvements.
Least important? Festivals, police, and... animals? Harsh.
Popular services to fund were affordable housing/shelters, transit, and traffic improvements.
Least important? Festivals, police, and... animals? Harsh.
A similar chart comparing industrial property taxes. Hamilton is mysterious to me.
January 8, 2026 at 4:48 PM
A similar chart comparing industrial property taxes. Hamilton is mysterious to me.
Here's a new chart: a comparison of commercial property taxes. Hamilton and Ottawa, what's going on.
January 8, 2026 at 4:47 PM
Here's a new chart: a comparison of commercial property taxes. Hamilton and Ottawa, what's going on.
Of large GTA municipalities, Toronto's residential property taxes remain pretty darn low. Lower than Hamilton and Markham. Way lower than Vaughan, Mississauga and Brampton.
January 8, 2026 at 4:45 PM
Of large GTA municipalities, Toronto's residential property taxes remain pretty darn low. Lower than Hamilton and Markham. Way lower than Vaughan, Mississauga and Brampton.
Of the average property tax bill, about 19% goes to the TTC. About 18.5% goes to the cops.
January 8, 2026 at 4:42 PM
Of the average property tax bill, about 19% goes to the TTC. About 18.5% goes to the cops.
Here are your property tax details. For the average household, the proposed combined 2.2% residential increase works out to $91.53 per household annually. About $7.63 more per month. About 25 cents a day.
January 8, 2026 at 4:39 PM
Here are your property tax details. For the average household, the proposed combined 2.2% residential increase works out to $91.53 per household annually. About $7.63 more per month. About 25 cents a day.
On the capital side, the 2026 budget is a pretty significant step backwards on state-of-good-repair funding compared to the 2025 plan.
January 8, 2026 at 4:37 PM
On the capital side, the 2026 budget is a pretty significant step backwards on state-of-good-repair funding compared to the 2025 plan.
For anyone thinking about running for mayor or council, you should know that next year's budget situation looks bleak. It's not gonna be fun. If you include an expected reduction in provincial and federal funding, the city is looking at a ~$1.5 billion opening operating budget shortfall for 2027.
January 8, 2026 at 4:30 PM
For anyone thinking about running for mayor or council, you should know that next year's budget situation looks bleak. It's not gonna be fun. If you include an expected reduction in provincial and federal funding, the city is looking at a ~$1.5 billion opening operating budget shortfall for 2027.
Some more detail on budget balancing actions, including:
- Hiring slowdown for non-frontline positions throughout 2026
- [Toronto Parking Authority] retained earnings
- Maximizing use of reserves
- Increased EV fleet (reduced fuel consumption)
- Hiring slowdown for non-frontline positions throughout 2026
- [Toronto Parking Authority] retained earnings
- Maximizing use of reserves
- Increased EV fleet (reduced fuel consumption)
January 8, 2026 at 4:26 PM
Some more detail on budget balancing actions, including:
- Hiring slowdown for non-frontline positions throughout 2026
- [Toronto Parking Authority] retained earnings
- Maximizing use of reserves
- Increased EV fleet (reduced fuel consumption)
- Hiring slowdown for non-frontline positions throughout 2026
- [Toronto Parking Authority] retained earnings
- Maximizing use of reserves
- Increased EV fleet (reduced fuel consumption)
So how'd they balance this thing? About $788 million was found through "reductions" and "offsets." Another $516 million was found through temporary fixes and financing changes, which are generally not sustainable. The 0.7% budgetary property tax increase raises just $35 million.
January 8, 2026 at 4:22 PM
So how'd they balance this thing? About $788 million was found through "reductions" and "offsets." Another $516 million was found through temporary fixes and financing changes, which are generally not sustainable. The 0.7% budgetary property tax increase raises just $35 million.
Chart here illustrates the scale of the budget challenge this year. The opening gap of $1.34 billion was about equivalent to the annual police budget. (Remember that the city HAS to balance its operating budget -- no deficits allowed.)
January 8, 2026 at 4:19 PM
Chart here illustrates the scale of the budget challenge this year. The opening gap of $1.34 billion was about equivalent to the annual police budget. (Remember that the city HAS to balance its operating budget -- no deficits allowed.)
The budget presentation has a new (I think) visual attempt to illustrate that most of the city's major revenue sources do not grow with the economy/inflation.
January 8, 2026 at 4:14 PM
The budget presentation has a new (I think) visual attempt to illustrate that most of the city's major revenue sources do not grow with the economy/inflation.
The budget meeting begins with Budget Chief Shelley Carroll welcoming everyone to the newly-renovated City Hall committee room.
"We're calling it The Bridge. Lieutenant Sulu here to my left. There's Deanna Troi. The rest of you will have to submit your new names."
"We're calling it The Bridge. Lieutenant Sulu here to my left. There's Deanna Troi. The rest of you will have to submit your new names."
January 8, 2026 at 4:09 PM
The budget meeting begins with Budget Chief Shelley Carroll welcoming everyone to the newly-renovated City Hall committee room.
"We're calling it The Bridge. Lieutenant Sulu here to my left. There's Deanna Troi. The rest of you will have to submit your new names."
"We're calling it The Bridge. Lieutenant Sulu here to my left. There's Deanna Troi. The rest of you will have to submit your new names."
This year's city budget was made more difficult because of some "unanticipated" funding hits, notably a $99 million reduction in revenue from the end of the speed camera program.
January 8, 2026 at 4:06 PM
This year's city budget was made more difficult because of some "unanticipated" funding hits, notably a $99 million reduction in revenue from the end of the speed camera program.
Here's the executive summary for all you executives. $18.9 billion operating budget. $63.1 billion ten-year capital plan. The words "affordable" and "affordability" repeated again and again and again. Full presentation here: www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis... (PDF)
January 8, 2026 at 4:01 PM
Here's the executive summary for all you executives. $18.9 billion operating budget. $63.1 billion ten-year capital plan. The words "affordable" and "affordability" repeated again and again and again. Full presentation here: www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis... (PDF)
An owner that denies problems. An operator that has no ability to fix problems. And a maintainer that just doesn’t respond to questions. Doesn’t seem like a great way to run a railroad. www.thestar.com/news/gta/why...
January 7, 2026 at 6:19 PM
An owner that denies problems. An operator that has no ability to fix problems. And a maintainer that just doesn’t respond to questions. Doesn’t seem like a great way to run a railroad. www.thestar.com/news/gta/why...
'Tis the season. If you're already a subscriber but would like to show more support, you can buy someone you love a gift subscription to City Hall Watcher.
Subscribers now get access to an interactive Council Scorecard, too — it's fancy.
toronto.cityhallwatcher.com/subscribe?gi...
Subscribers now get access to an interactive Council Scorecard, too — it's fancy.
toronto.cityhallwatcher.com/subscribe?gi...
December 18, 2025 at 1:46 AM
'Tis the season. If you're already a subscriber but would like to show more support, you can buy someone you love a gift subscription to City Hall Watcher.
Subscribers now get access to an interactive Council Scorecard, too — it's fancy.
toronto.cityhallwatcher.com/subscribe?gi...
Subscribers now get access to an interactive Council Scorecard, too — it's fancy.
toronto.cityhallwatcher.com/subscribe?gi...
Last item! Council votes 20-1 to APPROVE Councillor Parthi Kandavel's motion to support creating a West Scarborough Rail Trail. It promises to "connect from the mouth of the Don all the way to the Zoo." Neat! secure.toronto.ca/council/agen...
December 18, 2025 at 1:38 AM
Last item! Council votes 20-1 to APPROVE Councillor Parthi Kandavel's motion to support creating a West Scarborough Rail Trail. It promises to "connect from the mouth of the Don all the way to the Zoo." Neat! secure.toronto.ca/council/agen...
Bravo's amendment to Bradford's motion, changing it so the TTC board will consider a money-back guarantee as part of the broader ridership growth strategy, CARRIES 17-6.
December 18, 2025 at 1:31 AM
Bravo's amendment to Bradford's motion, changing it so the TTC board will consider a money-back guarantee as part of the broader ridership growth strategy, CARRIES 17-6.
Councillor Burnside is ready to go home. He calls the question on the TTC guarantee item. That FAILS 12-11. It didn't get the two-thirds support needed to end the debate. And so we beat on.
December 18, 2025 at 1:25 AM
Councillor Burnside is ready to go home. He calls the question on the TTC guarantee item. That FAILS 12-11. It didn't get the two-thirds support needed to end the debate. And so we beat on.
Nunziata does not apologize. Bradford sits down. Bravo moves to replace Bradford's motion with a request for the TTC Board to consider a money-back guarantee as part of the ridership growth strategy.
December 18, 2025 at 12:59 AM
Nunziata does not apologize. Bradford sits down. Bravo moves to replace Bradford's motion with a request for the TTC Board to consider a money-back guarantee as part of the ridership growth strategy.
Now Bradford is showing off his Presto card. His is NOT one of the OG green cards, though. Doesn't earn quite as much cred as Holyday.
December 18, 2025 at 12:52 AM
Now Bradford is showing off his Presto card. His is NOT one of the OG green cards, though. Doesn't earn quite as much cred as Holyday.