Matt Elliott
@graphicmatt.com
City columnist, contributing to the Toronto Star & writing the award-winning City Hall Watcher newsletter. A lot about Toronto Politics and then some nerd stuff. Humber College prof. (he/him)
The meeting ends. The budget has been kicked off. Let the historical record show I wrote this thread in a week where my kid was home with the flu. Any errors are due to a general lack of sleep.
January 8, 2026 at 6:04 PM
The meeting ends. The budget has been kicked off. Let the historical record show I wrote this thread in a week where my kid was home with the flu. Any errors are due to a general lack of sleep.
City Manager Paul Johnson says this year's shelter budget has been reduced by about $100 million in 2026. He says the number of refugees in the system has been reduced to about 3,100 — down from 6,500 at peak.
January 8, 2026 at 5:49 PM
City Manager Paul Johnson says this year's shelter budget has been reduced by about $100 million in 2026. He says the number of refugees in the system has been reduced to about 3,100 — down from 6,500 at peak.
Asked why other munis like Vaughan have been able to reduce dev charges more than T.O, the CFO says ~42% of Toronto DC rev goes to TTC — other cities don't have subways, etc. Also T.O. opted to use recent fed/prov funding to fund housing programs, instead of just using them to replace DC rev.
January 8, 2026 at 5:33 PM
Asked why other munis like Vaughan have been able to reduce dev charges more than T.O, the CFO says ~42% of Toronto DC rev goes to TTC — other cities don't have subways, etc. Also T.O. opted to use recent fed/prov funding to fund housing programs, instead of just using them to replace DC rev.
The CFO wraps things up with a look at the snake we'll be riding for the next few weeks. Budget presentations next week. Deputations the week after that. Mayor Chow will release her bespoke budget on Feb 1. Council will debate on Feb 10. Then: sleep.
January 8, 2026 at 5:22 PM
The CFO wraps things up with a look at the snake we'll be riding for the next few weeks. Budget presentations next week. Deputations the week after that. Mayor Chow will release her bespoke budget on Feb 1. Council will debate on Feb 10. Then: sleep.
CFO Stephen Conforti notes $2 million has been set aside for further service enhancements in the operating budget. The mayor will get to decide where to put the money as part of the budget process over the next month.
January 8, 2026 at 5:02 PM
CFO Stephen Conforti notes $2 million has been set aside for further service enhancements in the operating budget. The mayor will get to decide where to put the money as part of the budget process over the next month.
The City is coming really close to hitting its debt limit with the current ten-year capital spending plan. Flying really close to the sun here.
January 8, 2026 at 4:57 PM
The City is coming really close to hitting its debt limit with the current ten-year capital spending plan. Flying really close to the sun here.
Municipal land transfer tax revenue has been erratic, but still important. City is budgeting for $850 million in revenue this year. Cutting the local LTT would require a property tax increase of about 16.1%.
January 8, 2026 at 4:54 PM
Municipal land transfer tax revenue has been erratic, but still important. City is budgeting for $850 million in revenue this year. Cutting the local LTT would require a property tax increase of about 16.1%.
The city ran a bunch of consultations on the budget, as the city is wont to do.
Popular services to fund were affordable housing/shelters, transit, and traffic improvements.
Least important? Festivals, police, and... animals? Harsh.
Popular services to fund were affordable housing/shelters, transit, and traffic improvements.
Least important? Festivals, police, and... animals? Harsh.
January 8, 2026 at 4:51 PM
The city ran a bunch of consultations on the budget, as the city is wont to do.
Popular services to fund were affordable housing/shelters, transit, and traffic improvements.
Least important? Festivals, police, and... animals? Harsh.
Popular services to fund were affordable housing/shelters, transit, and traffic improvements.
Least important? Festivals, police, and... animals? Harsh.
A similar chart comparing industrial property taxes. Hamilton is mysterious to me.
January 8, 2026 at 4:48 PM
A similar chart comparing industrial property taxes. Hamilton is mysterious to me.
Here's a new chart: a comparison of commercial property taxes. Hamilton and Ottawa, what's going on.
January 8, 2026 at 4:47 PM
Here's a new chart: a comparison of commercial property taxes. Hamilton and Ottawa, what's going on.
Of large GTA municipalities, Toronto's residential property taxes remain pretty darn low. Lower than Hamilton and Markham. Way lower than Vaughan, Mississauga and Brampton.
January 8, 2026 at 4:45 PM
Of large GTA municipalities, Toronto's residential property taxes remain pretty darn low. Lower than Hamilton and Markham. Way lower than Vaughan, Mississauga and Brampton.
Of the average property tax bill, about 19% goes to the TTC. About 18.5% goes to the cops.
January 8, 2026 at 4:42 PM
Of the average property tax bill, about 19% goes to the TTC. About 18.5% goes to the cops.
Here are your property tax details. For the average household, the proposed combined 2.2% residential increase works out to $91.53 per household annually. About $7.63 more per month. About 25 cents a day.
January 8, 2026 at 4:39 PM
Here are your property tax details. For the average household, the proposed combined 2.2% residential increase works out to $91.53 per household annually. About $7.63 more per month. About 25 cents a day.
On the capital side, the 2026 budget is a pretty significant step backwards on state-of-good-repair funding compared to the 2025 plan.
January 8, 2026 at 4:37 PM
On the capital side, the 2026 budget is a pretty significant step backwards on state-of-good-repair funding compared to the 2025 plan.
City Manager Paul Johnson notes a reduction in the number of encampments. Currently, there are encampments in 48 parks (out of 1,500), down from encampments in 107 parks last year.
Total number of encampments today is 170, down from 316 a year ago. He cites success of federal funding for outreach.
Total number of encampments today is 170, down from 316 a year ago. He cites success of federal funding for outreach.
January 8, 2026 at 4:34 PM
City Manager Paul Johnson notes a reduction in the number of encampments. Currently, there are encampments in 48 parks (out of 1,500), down from encampments in 107 parks last year.
Total number of encampments today is 170, down from 316 a year ago. He cites success of federal funding for outreach.
Total number of encampments today is 170, down from 316 a year ago. He cites success of federal funding for outreach.
For anyone thinking about running for mayor or council, you should know that next year's budget situation looks bleak. It's not gonna be fun. If you include an expected reduction in provincial and federal funding, the city is looking at a ~$1.5 billion opening operating budget shortfall for 2027.
January 8, 2026 at 4:30 PM
For anyone thinking about running for mayor or council, you should know that next year's budget situation looks bleak. It's not gonna be fun. If you include an expected reduction in provincial and federal funding, the city is looking at a ~$1.5 billion opening operating budget shortfall for 2027.
Some more detail on budget balancing actions, including:
- Hiring slowdown for non-frontline positions throughout 2026
- [Toronto Parking Authority] retained earnings
- Maximizing use of reserves
- Increased EV fleet (reduced fuel consumption)
- Hiring slowdown for non-frontline positions throughout 2026
- [Toronto Parking Authority] retained earnings
- Maximizing use of reserves
- Increased EV fleet (reduced fuel consumption)
January 8, 2026 at 4:26 PM
Some more detail on budget balancing actions, including:
- Hiring slowdown for non-frontline positions throughout 2026
- [Toronto Parking Authority] retained earnings
- Maximizing use of reserves
- Increased EV fleet (reduced fuel consumption)
- Hiring slowdown for non-frontline positions throughout 2026
- [Toronto Parking Authority] retained earnings
- Maximizing use of reserves
- Increased EV fleet (reduced fuel consumption)
So how'd they balance this thing? About $788 million was found through "reductions" and "offsets." Another $516 million was found through temporary fixes and financing changes, which are generally not sustainable. The 0.7% budgetary property tax increase raises just $35 million.
January 8, 2026 at 4:22 PM
So how'd they balance this thing? About $788 million was found through "reductions" and "offsets." Another $516 million was found through temporary fixes and financing changes, which are generally not sustainable. The 0.7% budgetary property tax increase raises just $35 million.
Chart here illustrates the scale of the budget challenge this year. The opening gap of $1.34 billion was about equivalent to the annual police budget. (Remember that the city HAS to balance its operating budget -- no deficits allowed.)
January 8, 2026 at 4:19 PM
Chart here illustrates the scale of the budget challenge this year. The opening gap of $1.34 billion was about equivalent to the annual police budget. (Remember that the city HAS to balance its operating budget -- no deficits allowed.)
City Manager Paul Johnson opens his presentation with another Star Trek joke. "Given my hairline, Jean-Luc Picard would be more in line for me."
January 8, 2026 at 4:16 PM
City Manager Paul Johnson opens his presentation with another Star Trek joke. "Given my hairline, Jean-Luc Picard would be more in line for me."
Notable line at the bottom of that budget slide: "Income taxes paid by Toronto households grew 10x more than municipal property taxes over 2015-2023"
January 8, 2026 at 4:15 PM
Notable line at the bottom of that budget slide: "Income taxes paid by Toronto households grew 10x more than municipal property taxes over 2015-2023"
The budget presentation has a new (I think) visual attempt to illustrate that most of the city's major revenue sources do not grow with the economy/inflation.
January 8, 2026 at 4:14 PM
The budget presentation has a new (I think) visual attempt to illustrate that most of the city's major revenue sources do not grow with the economy/inflation.
The budget meeting begins with Budget Chief Shelley Carroll welcoming everyone to the newly-renovated City Hall committee room.
"We're calling it The Bridge. Lieutenant Sulu here to my left. There's Deanna Troi. The rest of you will have to submit your new names."
"We're calling it The Bridge. Lieutenant Sulu here to my left. There's Deanna Troi. The rest of you will have to submit your new names."
January 8, 2026 at 4:09 PM
The budget meeting begins with Budget Chief Shelley Carroll welcoming everyone to the newly-renovated City Hall committee room.
"We're calling it The Bridge. Lieutenant Sulu here to my left. There's Deanna Troi. The rest of you will have to submit your new names."
"We're calling it The Bridge. Lieutenant Sulu here to my left. There's Deanna Troi. The rest of you will have to submit your new names."
This year's city budget was made more difficult because of some "unanticipated" funding hits, notably a $99 million reduction in revenue from the end of the speed camera program.
January 8, 2026 at 4:06 PM
This year's city budget was made more difficult because of some "unanticipated" funding hits, notably a $99 million reduction in revenue from the end of the speed camera program.
Here's the executive summary for all you executives. $18.9 billion operating budget. $63.1 billion ten-year capital plan. The words "affordable" and "affordability" repeated again and again and again. Full presentation here: www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis... (PDF)
January 8, 2026 at 4:01 PM
Here's the executive summary for all you executives. $18.9 billion operating budget. $63.1 billion ten-year capital plan. The words "affordable" and "affordability" repeated again and again and again. Full presentation here: www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis... (PDF)