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Greg Shill

@gregshill.com

9.2K followers 730 following 1.6K posts

Professor, Arizona State University Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law • Student of firms, cities & transportation (and Seinfeld) • Papers: ssrn.com/author=887547 • Newsletter: gregshill.substack.com • Co-host of Densely Speaking podcast • gregshill.com

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Greg Shill @gregshill.com · Aug 7

🚨 Transportation for the Abundant Society 🚨

New draft paper (w/ Jonathan Levine) now up.

"Abundance" needs to grapple with transportation beyond megaprojects and institutions beyond zoning. We propose anchoring planning metrics in *access*, not speed of travel. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5383031

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Reposted by Greg Shill

Stephen Jacob Smith @stephenjacobsmith.com · 15h

I can't stop thinking about this. We're pursuing zero fire risk in multifam, while tolerating much more in single-fam. People respond by building and living in single-fam, where they're exposed to not only one of the highest fire death risks in the developed world, but also TONS more car crash risk

Emily Hamilton @ebwhamilton.bsky.social · 15h

Love this new report on buildings' relative fire safety from @alexhrwtz.bsky.social and Pew colleagues.

www.pew.org/en/research-...

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Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 16h

Too complicated IMO. If you have high conviction, you could, e.g., buy PSQ.

Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 7d

Eager to read this. www.nber.org/papers/w34298

The Traffic Noise Externality: Costs, Incidence and Policy Implications

Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

www.nber.org

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Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 11d

Unfortunately maxing service isn’t either. Or, to be precise, it competes with other goals and often isn’t prioritized.

Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 11d

Another reason is that a lot of the capital expenditures bucket has historically not been borne by transit agencies. Unlike opex, a lot is paid by the feds; some is also borrowed via bond authority.
bsky.app/profile/greg...

Greg Shill @gregshill.com · May 7

Even beyond mandates, there is often a tradeoff between capital investments and operating costs. Capex is heavily subsidized by the federal government, but operating costs fall heavily on transit agencies. Capex strategy should aim to cut operating costs but often other goals are given priority.

Jarrett Walker @humantransit.bsky.social · May 7

Just asked a California transit manager if the state's Zero Emission Bus mandate is causing them to run less service than they otherwise would.

He said: "Yes, definitely."

A diesel bus only has to get 4 ppl out of cars to be better for the planet than an electric bus.

Hmm.

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Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 11d

This is something a privately run transit system would naturally avoid, because it would regard costs that do not increase revenues as something to be minimized. For a public agency, sad to say, they are a justification for a higher budget next year.

David Zipper @davidzipper.bsky.social · 12d

I’ll emphasize that point about customization, which includes flooring, windows, panel colors, etc.

70% of US bus procurements are unique, meaning no other agency bought identical buses.

Individualized designs inflate costs. They helped kill Proterra and push Volvo out of the US market.

A Bus is a Bus: The Costs of Excess Customization - The Eno Center for Transportation

November 3, 2023 - There is concern that the over-customization of new buses could be leading to higher costs for transit agencies and reducing the competitiveness of U.S. vehicle manufacturers.

enotrans.org

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Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 15d

Observation not only not limited to Chicago, but extends to ~every city in America.

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Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 15d

Many people are saying that the roads are too damn wide.

Daniel Knowles @dlknowles.bsky.social · 15d

A thing that happens when I am in London but I am afraid to say simply never happens in Chicago is that I just walk three miles to get somewhere because I am not in a hurry and it is nice

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Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 15d

At this point, I have to imagine the likelihood of federal support (fiscal and regulatory) is part of the mix agencies and munis consider when prioritizing projects.

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Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 15d

Possibly relevant to those conversations:

Disney stock over the past five days compared with its S&P500 sector. Not a great trend if you think the response was going to build from here.

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Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 15d

Yes, but unlike highways there isn't a spigot jammed open. There's a rusty tap that sprays droplets on occasion.

Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 15d

tired: shareholder WEALTH maximization

wired: shareholder wealth MAXIMIZATION

inspired: SHAREHOLDER wealth maximization

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Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 15d

I like a lot of these projects. But:

1) They cost too much. Figuring out how to bring costs down was already imperative once pandemic aid ran out.

2) Create local sources of recurring revenue—namely, build, baby, build. Not impact fees, just vanilla property tax.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Trump Cancels Trail, Bike-Lane Grants Deemed ‘Hostile’ to Cars

The Trump administration canceled grants for street safety measures, pedestrian trails and bike lanes in communities around the country this month, each time offering a simple rationale for yanking ba...

www.bloomberg.com

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Reposted by Greg Shill

Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 15d

Update:

The Consumer Expenditure Survey is being delayed ~5 weeks, with no impact on the CPI weights, and for good technical reasons.

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Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 15d

Not to be one of those “why would a big private company ever go public in this market” guys, but…why would they? www.wsj.com/tech/nvidia-...

Nvidia to Invest Up to $100 Billion in OpenAI

The companies say the partnership will enable OpenAI to build and deploy at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems for its artificial intelligence data centers to train and run its next generation of mo...

www.wsj.com

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Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 15d

I, too, am investing $100 billion in chips and/or AI.

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Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 15d

You never go full Kingsfield, but I’m always surprised to learn from friends in other disciplines how uncommon it is to call on people who haven’t raised their hand.

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Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 15d

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Reposted by Greg Shill

Ohio Bikedude @rholt.bsky.social · 16d

"It’s hard to stay independent as an older adult in the U.S., especially if you reach very old age." Yes, and lack of transportation options is a large part of this issue that affects well-being of older adults. Also see, 'Climate Resilience for an Aging Nation' and 'When Driving is Not an Option'.

Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 16d

New newsletter post on the interplay between aging (quantity of years), thriving in old age (quality), and transportation law and policy:

open.substack.com/pub/gregshil...

Despite being a rich nation, America makes it hard to get old—and hard to thrive if you do

Transportation policy is a key reason why. More transit isn't the (only) answer. The first of two short posts on the subject.

open.substack.com

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Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 16d

Pulling this great point up from the comments on Substack:

"You basically get 77 years ‘for free’ as middle income nations like Turkey and Malaysia manage that. So I tend to think of the life expectancy gap with other rich countries as more like 300% than 6%."

Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 16d

New newsletter post on the interplay between aging (quantity of years), thriving in old age (quality), and transportation law and policy:

open.substack.com/pub/gregshil...

Despite being a rich nation, America makes it hard to get old—and hard to thrive if you do

Transportation policy is a key reason why. More transit isn't the (only) answer. The first of two short posts on the subject.

open.substack.com

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Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 16d

That book is in the seemingly burgeoning category of Things People Buy New Parents as Gifts, Never for Their Own Kids. (Onesies with weak jokes also in this category.) I admire the entrepreneurialism!

Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 16d

Come be my colleague!
www.thefacultylounge.org/2025/09/asu-...

ASU Law Seeks Faculty

This just in: The Sandra Day O’Connor College of Law at Arizona State University is looking to hire a number of faculty. The first is the Clarissa Cerda Professorship in Law and Technology, which will...

www.thefacultylounge.org

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Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 16d

I’ll be yammering about intensive margins until the day I die

Greg Shill @gregshill.com · 16d

I have mixed feelings about alleys (they gobble up land for underused right of way) but they do solve this:

Put the garage behind the rowhouse. (Then put a granny flat above the garage, but I digress.)

Cities can have not only more housing, but more living space.

Bobby Fijan @bobbyfijan.bsky.social · 16d

This comparison shows the price of putting an internal garage on a rowhouse

Both of these rowhomes are ~16' wide

Left: 2BR+Den/3BA
Right: 4BR/3.5BA

So the cost is losing TWO bedroom.

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