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Jed Kolko

@jedkolko.bsky.social

3K followers 62 following 190 posts

Sr fellow @piie.com. Sr advisor JPMC Institute. Was Under Secretary Econ Affairs at Commerce Dept and chief economist at Indeed and Trulia. Contact at http://jedkolko.com

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Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 7d

Methodologies diverge. ADP reflects preliminary benchmark revision, while BLS payrolls won't until Jan 2026. That's extra reason for not drawing conclusions with precision.

ADP as published: -32k
ADP w/o revision: +11k

Plus, must weigh this all against a low breakeven rate!

Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 7d

EJ Antoni nomination to lead BLS is withdrawn.

www.cnn.com/2025/09/30/p...

White House withdraws Trump’s controversial nominee to lead BLS after ousting predecessor over jobs data | CNN Politics

The White House has sent paperwork to the Senate to withdraw the nomination of E.J. Antoni as head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, three sources told CNN.

Reposted by Jed Kolko

Erica Groshen @ericagroshen.bsky.social · 14d

12 Senators want to know the Administration's plans for federal #statistics by 10/6.

“The integrity of America’s #economicdata is fundamental to our economic prosperity and global leadership – it is not a partisan issue...”

www.banking.senate.gov/imo/media/do...
#econsky

www.banking.senate.gov

Reposted by Jed Kolko

Julia Gelatt @juliagelatt.bsky.social · 15d

DHS has just claimed that 1.6 million unauthorized immigrant "self deported" this year. This number seems to come from a Center for Immigration Studies estimate that relies on the Current Population Survey. As @jedkolko.bsky.social writes, such a large decline doesn't line up with other data

That reported multi-million decline in US immigrants just doesn’t add up

The recent Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data showing that there were 2.2 million fewer immigrants in the US in July 2025 than in January is almost certainly wrong.

Reposted by Jed Kolko

Nicolas Veron @veron.bsky.social · 16d

Please consider joining live tomorrow! My guest Oleksandra Azarkhina is among the best experts for a forward-looking discussion of Ukraine's prospects as a (potential) future member of the European Union.

Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 16d

TOMORROW: @veron.bsky.social hosts a new virtual series & podcast What now, Europe?—chatting with experts & practitioners on Europe's future in a turbulent new era.
Participate live or subscribe wherever you get podcasts: https://www.piie.com/events/2025/ukraines-future-european-union

Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 15d

Update:

The Consumer Expenditure Survey is being delayed ~5 weeks, with no impact on the CPI weights, and for good technical reasons.

Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 18d

To be clear: this is bad! An essential data release is being delayed without explanation, at a time when the Administration has expressed distrust in BLS data.

Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 18d

There are real and immediate threats to the US statistical system. But be clear about the threats. Delaying CEX is not the same as, say, suppressing or fudging CPI to hide bad news.

Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 18d

The CEX delay is likely due to resource cuts, not meddling. BLS has lost lots of staff and expertise.

An extended delay COULD lead to politically-influenced choices about how to weight the CPI in the absence of needed CEX inputs. But that's not where we are today.

Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 18d

CEX reports on patterns of consumer spending, by category and demographics -- e.g. how much do older adults spend on food.

The spending mix is critical for calculating inflation: it shows how to combine prices of eggs, airplane tickets, TVs, etc. into an overall price level.

Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 18d

The BLS is NOT postponing the monthly inflation report, the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Rather, the delay is for the annual Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX). CEX provides the "weights" for the CPI and other inflation measures.

Reposted by Jed Kolko

Erica Groshen @ericagroshen.bsky.social · 18d

There are no politicals at BLS now. No BLSers have leaked about pressure on the CEX or other work at BLS. And this release is likely too low-profile to warrant meddling.
So, I don’t think that the issue is pressure.
The shortage of funding and staffing —also nefarious—is a more likely cause.

Reposted by Jed Kolko

Erica Groshen @ericagroshen.bsky.social · 18d

#BLS has delayed the 2024 Consumer Expenditures Survey annual release. This is likely due to the severe understaffing in the agency.
Staff losses and hiring freeze are taking their toll.

www.bls.gov/cex/notices/...

#econsky

Consumer Expenditures 2024 Data Release to be Rescheduled

Consumer Expenditures 2024 Data Release to be Rescheduled (9/19/2025)

Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 20d

Why do businesses need credible official economic data?

Come find out!

2:30 today, @brookings.edu -- in-person and virtual

www.brookings.edu/events/the-i...

The importance of credible government economic data to business | Brookings

On September 18, Brookings will host former BLS commissioners, government officials, private-sector leaders, and economists to discuss data integrity.

www.brookings.edu

Reposted by Jed Kolko

David Wessel @davidmwessel.bsky.social · 20d

Steve Moore (!): Trump aims to bolster U.S. manufacturing—in part through steel and aluminum tariffs. But ...Trump’s order to raise the tax on imported aluminum to 50% will almost certainly cost far more manufacturing jobs than it will save. www.wsj.com/opinion/trum...

Opinion | Trump’s Tariffs on Aluminum Kill U.S. Factory Jobs

They’re costly for companies that use the metal to make things—including recyclers.

Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 20d

The Fed expects slower GDP growth than the White House does -- especially 2026 onward.

One Fed participant projects GDP growth of 2.6-2.7% in 2026, 2027, and 2028, but none projects GDP growth as high as the White House does.

Reposted by Jed Kolko

Hansi Lo Wang (he/him) @hansilowang.bsky.social · 21d

NEW: At her confirmation hearing, Joyce Meyer, President Trump’s nominee for the next under secretary of commerce for economic affairs to oversee the Census Bureau, avoided directly answering whether she agrees the president is unable to conduct a new census before 2030 unless Congress passes a law

Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 21d

Fed nerds: would Miran have a projection in the SEP today, or would timing be too tight for his projection to be prepared and included?

Mike Konczal @mtkonczal.bsky.social · 21d

As CEA director, Miran likely signed off on Trump's recent comical budget claim that GDP will be 3%+ in 2026-2027 and longer-term 2.9%.

This is far outside the ~1.8-2% consensus from Blue Chip, CBO, and, notably, the FOMC. Will he make one big outlier datum in the FOMC projections tomorrow?

Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 21d

The person who could reshape US economic statistics -- including oversight of the BLS -- has their Senate confirmation hearing at 10 am today.

Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 21d

Today: hearing for Joyce Meyer, nominee for Under Secretary of Commerce for Economic Affairs.

Role oversees Census and BEA, and potentially BLS if it moves from Labor to Commerce.

www.commerce.senate.gov/2025/9/senat...

Senate Commerce Announces Hearing for NTSB, OSTP, and Commerce Nominees

WASHINGTON, D.C. – U.S. Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Chairman of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, will convene a nominations hearing for nominees of the National Transport...

www.commerce.senate.gov

Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 21d

Today: hearing for Joyce Meyer, nominee for Under Secretary of Commerce for Economic Affairs.

Role oversees Census and BEA, and potentially BLS if it moves from Labor to Commerce.

www.commerce.senate.gov/2025/9/senat...

Senate Commerce Announces Hearing for NTSB, OSTP, and Commerce Nominees

WASHINGTON, D.C. – U.S. Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Chairman of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, will convene a nominations hearing for nominees of the National Transport...

www.commerce.senate.gov

Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 26d

Today, Congressional Budget Office lowered its GDP growth projection for 2025 and raised it for 2026. Revision reflects 2025 reconciliation act, tariffs, and lower immigration.

CBO's projections still well below White House assumptions, esp for 2026-2028.

Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 26d

“ Unfortunately, the U.S. Census Bureau was not able to renew the contract with the Population Reference Bureau (PRB) to maintain the site, and the online community will sunset on September 30, 2025”

Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 26d

Inbox: American Community Survey (ACS) Data Users Group Online Community is shutting down. Has 7000 members; operating since 2013.

Big loss to users of the ACS, the key source of economic, societal, and demographic information about local communities.

Reposted by Jed Kolko

Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 26d

Job growth in industries more reliant on unauthorized immigrants has been flat this year. These industries include construction, hotels, restaurants, home health care, & several other industries in manufacturing, technology, & services. #PIIECharts

Slowing immigration has halted job growth in some industries

Reposted by Jed Kolko

Hansi Lo Wang (he/him) @hansilowang.bsky.social · 26d

NEW: The confirmation hearing for Joyce Meyer, President Trump’s nominee for the next under secretary of commerce for economic affairs to oversee the Census Bureau, is set to take place Sept. 17 before the Senate Commerce Committee

Senate Commerce Announces Hearing for NTSB, OSTP, and Commerce Nominees

WASHINGTON, D.C. – U.S. Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Chairman of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, will convene a nominations hearing for nominees of the National Transport...

www.commerce.senate.gov