Gennady Rudkevich
grudkevich.bsky.social
Gennady Rudkevich
@grudkevich.bsky.social
Economist. Former Assistant Professor of Political Science, focusing on Russia and Central Asia. All views my own.
I'm going to go out on a limb and assume that the AI folks making millions aren't spending most of their days posting on social media.
November 28, 2025 at 9:29 PM
I guess they were on the same side of a major military conflict.
Cretan Revolt (1897–1898) - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
November 27, 2025 at 12:24 AM
Minus the whole Russian occupation of chunks of Moldova and Georgia and the NATO bombing of Republika Srpska and Yugoslavia.
November 27, 2025 at 12:14 AM
The new ruler would be lucky to control the major cities. It's inconceivable they'd control the countryside. Especially when the military is dominated by Maduro loyalists who wouldn't be rushing to follow orders. Meanwhile, the cartels would have the most/biggest guns in much of the country.
October 24, 2025 at 11:27 PM
And that's how ethnic Russians make up a majority of all but a handful of Russia's Asian regions.
October 2, 2025 at 7:07 PM
Penguins fan. One gram of hope. Only need a de-aging machine.
October 1, 2025 at 11:27 PM
By contrast, the correlation between an NHL team's point total in the previous season and its point total in the current season is 0.54.
October 1, 2025 at 11:21 PM
September 28, 2025 at 6:40 PM
September 28, 2025 at 6:38 PM
This is also what happens when you anger your own constituency while forgetting that opposition supporters live in an entirely different media ecosystem that will never give you credit, no matter how consistent your policies are with their previously stated preferences.
September 2, 2025 at 9:13 PM
Putin wants legal recognition of Russia's military conquests. But getting that recognition would require Russia to give something in return. Meanwhile, Russia isn't actually offering a single concession. No, promising not to attack (especially given Russia's track record) isn't a serious concession.
August 19, 2025 at 7:45 PM
The equivalent situation today would be for Russia to push for the annexation of the Crimea, with perhaps some form of an autonomous status (within Ukraine) with a Russian veto for certain decisions in Donetsk and Lugansk. The reason there is no chance for peace is Russia is asking for too much.
August 19, 2025 at 7:43 PM
Alternatively, countries needed to achieve major military successes to annex a single region. This is because they realized that achieving international legal recognition of an annexation was worth more than military victory. Without such recognition, the value of the land was severely diminished.
August 19, 2025 at 7:37 PM
Nominal GDP (in trillion $):

California: 4.10
Texas: 2.71
New York: 2.30
Russia: 2.08

Missouri: 0.45
Moscow: 0.42
August 18, 2025 at 7:36 PM