Giuseppe Spatafora
@gspataf95.bsky.social
460 followers 280 following 160 posts
Analyst for transatlantic relations 🇺🇸 at @euiss.bsky.social 🇪🇺. PhD International Relations @politicsoxford.bsky.social @ox.ac.uk. Formerly at NATO Policy Planning Unit
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gspataf95.bsky.social
Trump's recent action on 🇺🇦 & rhetoric at #MSC increased concerns about 🇺🇸 abandonment of 🇪🇺 - but what could this policy look like? This is the question I address in my @euiss.bsky.social brief "The Trump card": a🧵1/8
euiss.bsky.social
Trump’s latest moves have heightened fears of US disengagement from Europe. Is it a strategic shift or a bargaining tactic? @gspataf95.bsky.social explores both scenarios.

One thing is clear: Europeans have no choice but to invest in a strong deterrence force.

🔗 www.iss.europa.eu/publications...
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
euiss.bsky.social
Fighter jets are too costly against cheap #drones and Europe can’t rely on the US, which is also new to this game. @gspataf95.bsky.social in the Washington Post on the EU's planned "drone wall". www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...
gspataf95.bsky.social
“The other side can just keep throwing things at you,”... “There’s only a certain number of fighter jets, each of them carries a certain amount of munitions, which tends to be quite high-tech and expensive. You cannot expend them easily.”
gspataf95.bsky.social
👉“Although NATO has the top-level defense capabilities,” Spatafora added, “they are not enough to deal with cheap drones that can be sent in droves and make a lot of damage.”
gspataf95.bsky.social
👉“The U.S. is sort of new to this game as well,” Spatafora said. “So the Europeans, basically they cannot just rely on U.S. capabilities. It’s new for everyone.”
gspataf95.bsky.social
euiss.bsky.social
#Moldova votes this weekend, amid accusations of Russian interference. A snapshot of how elections were targeted in 2024 ⤵️ From @gspataf95.bsky.social & Nad’a Kovalčíková's Brief: ow.ly/wHyH50X239c.
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
politico.eu
European countries bordering Russia should prepare for the possibility that Washington could draw down its troop numbers in the area by building up their own military capacity, the president of Estonia told us.
Prepare for possible US troop drawdown in Europe, Estonia says
President Alar Karis warns that all European countries should be prepared for Russian provocations.
ow.ly
gspataf95.bsky.social
Previewing the latest @euiss.bsky.social research at #EUISS2025 Annual Conference
euiss.bsky.social
📢 How can the EU navigate a transatlantic relationship marked by low trust?

@gspataf95.bsky.social takes the stage to present our upcoming new Chaillot Paper at #EUISS2025.
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
gspataf95.bsky.social
Yesterday, I was interviewed by @france24.com for "Around the World" on the phone call between the US, Ukraine, and European allies. We touched upon EU attempts to influence Trump, the risks of the meeting, Putin's intentions, and the real obstacles to a ceasefire.
euiss.bsky.social
European leaders know the #Alaska meeting will be unpredictable. They’ve given Trump key messages for his talks with Putin, hoping to influence a room they won’t be in, explains @gspataf95.bsky.social on @france24.com.

📺 Watch: www.france24.com/en/video/202...
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
euiss.bsky.social
💡 The EU can address both its security & competitiveness crises with a new tool: increased defence budgets.

Europe has the opportunity to spark a dual-use tech boom that could boost its deterrence and industrial growth, argue @joristeer.bsky.social & @gspataf95.bsky.social. www.iss.europa.eu/pu...
Graph showing the 'snail pace' of R&D in the EU compared to US R&D. While overall defence spending among EU Member States has gone up, investment in defence R&D is not keeping pace with procurement.
gspataf95.bsky.social
Maybe that's the point...pressure on spending 5% quickly will lead to pressure to buy off the shelf american...
alanderminna.bsky.social
While no one disputes that Europe needs to do more for its defence, the focus on defence spending percentage of GDP won’t get us there. Indeed, making Europeans commit to an arbitrary spending target is the best way to keep Europe from reaching strategic autonomy.

My rant in the @financialtimes.com
Spending 5 per cent on defence doesn’t make Nato stronger
An arbitrary target won’t enhance members’ capabilities or co-ordination and encourages creative accounting
www.ft.com
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
alanderminna.bsky.social
While no one disputes that Europe needs to do more for its defence, the focus on defence spending percentage of GDP won’t get us there. Indeed, making Europeans commit to an arbitrary spending target is the best way to keep Europe from reaching strategic autonomy.

My rant in the @financialtimes.com
Spending 5 per cent on defence doesn’t make Nato stronger
An arbitrary target won’t enhance members’ capabilities or co-ordination and encourages creative accounting
www.ft.com
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
gesineweber.bsky.social
Absolutely yes. And the keyword here is "strategic": it's not smart to give yourself the means without the ends, and Europeans are clearly failing in defining the ends.
alanderminna.bsky.social
While no one disputes that Europe needs to do more for its defence, the focus on defence spending percentage of GDP won’t get us there. Indeed, making Europeans commit to an arbitrary spending target is the best way to keep Europe from reaching strategic autonomy.

My rant in the @financialtimes.com
Spending 5 per cent on defence doesn’t make Nato stronger
An arbitrary target won’t enhance members’ capabilities or co-ordination and encourages creative accounting
www.ft.com
gspataf95.bsky.social
Short reading x the summer break: Europe should be ready for the US NDS & force posture review - coming up in late summer/fall. We should hope for the best but prepare for the worst. My latest @euiss.bsky.social commentary:
euiss.bsky.social
🆕 Trump's U-turn on Ukraine raised hopes in Europe, but the upcoming US defence strategy & posture review are being shaped by Pentagon leaders loyal to his 'America First' agenda.

The EU should temper expectations and plan accordingly, warns @gspataf95.bsky.social. www.iss.europa.eu/publications...
New EUISS commentary | No surprises? Preparing for the US defence strategy and posture review
Written by Giuseppe Spatafora
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
rollingstone.com
NEW: “They won’t shut the fuck up about it,” Trump privately vented — referring to conservative influencers and media types lashing out over the Epstein memo — according to a source with direct knowledge of the matter.
Inside Trump's Frantic, Failing Mission to Crush the Epstein 'MAGA Rebellion'
President Donald Trump and his administration are doing everything they can to make MAGA forget about Jeffrey Epstein. They are failing.
www.rollingstone.com
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
shashj.bsky.social
1. This is a very rich podcast discussion between Vipin Narang, Pranay Vaddi & Austin Long (who did nuclear policy on the joint staff until recently). Covers UK-France nuclear co-op but most interesting bits are on the US policy of 'damage limitation' strategicsimplicity.substack.com/p/vipin-and-...
Vipin and I welcome Austin Long to the show (and MIT CNSP)
Austin Long joins us to discuss damage limitation (shocking, I know), arms races and arms control, the recent UK-France Northwood Declaration, and more
strategicsimplicity.substack.com
Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
tbenner.bsky.social
Rutte really deserves an award for his handling of Trump.
Yes, this may not stick and Trump is at the same time seeking to weaken Europe with tariffs.
But on security this is the best day for Europe during Trump's time in the White House.