Elliot Hentov
@hentove.bsky.social
Trying to connect the dots...linking politics, economics and markets. Head of Macro Policy Research at State Street GA. All Tweets personal
European foreign policy debate is distorted: A) Russian security threat; B) Chinese economic dominance and C) US erosion of European sovereignty - are very different in severity and urgency. (Hint: C is very low on both).
January 5, 2026 at 4:25 PM
European foreign policy debate is distorted: A) Russian security threat; B) Chinese economic dominance and C) US erosion of European sovereignty - are very different in severity and urgency. (Hint: C is very low on both).
We looked at available data and also extrapolated from previous innovation cycles. Where does AI take us in terms of productivity? Data confirms little thus far, but initial signs are promising. Listen here:
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...
The New Invisible Hand: Machine Learning, Human Earning
Podcast Episode · The Outside Context · 20/11/2025 · 34m
podcasts.apple.com
November 21, 2025 at 3:50 PM
We looked at available data and also extrapolated from previous innovation cycles. Where does AI take us in terms of productivity? Data confirms little thus far, but initial signs are promising. Listen here:
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...
After a year of policy shocks, we are in for a short ‘breather’ - good time to take stock where we are in global competition and what it means for markets podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/s...
Global Competition and Its Trade Offs with Elliot Hentov
Podcast Episode · Street Signals · 13/11/2025 · 42m
podcasts.apple.com
November 13, 2025 at 7:52 AM
After a year of policy shocks, we are in for a short ‘breather’ - good time to take stock where we are in global competition and what it means for markets podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/s...
Reposted by Elliot Hentov
I threw everything in here—the dollar, bonds, the future of the defense umbrella, the insistence on centrality, stablecoin, why centrality is not always strength, the evolution of US & global (r,g ) dynamics, and a shoutout to Steven Solomon. But no dad jokes alas.
“The months since April 2 have clarified the multiple contradictory desires of the Trump administration vis-a-vis its position in the global economic hierarchy.”
@rajakorman.bsky.social on Trumponomics, dollar diplomacy, and multipolarity
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/mon...
@rajakorman.bsky.social on Trumponomics, dollar diplomacy, and multipolarity
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/mon...
Monetizing Primacy | Karthik Sankaran
Trumponomics, dollar diplomacy, and multipolarity
www.phenomenalworld.org
July 5, 2025 at 6:36 PM
I threw everything in here—the dollar, bonds, the future of the defense umbrella, the insistence on centrality, stablecoin, why centrality is not always strength, the evolution of US & global (r,g ) dynamics, and a shoutout to Steven Solomon. But no dad jokes alas.
US-China deal is a pivotal moment, both for current macro cycle as well as grand geopolitical era. Beijing has managed to completely dictate a bilateral outcome, showcasing that it can wield power more effectively in certain domains. 1/n
June 12, 2025 at 3:24 PM
US-China deal is a pivotal moment, both for current macro cycle as well as grand geopolitical era. Beijing has managed to completely dictate a bilateral outcome, showcasing that it can wield power more effectively in certain domains. 1/n
If you’re in Paris in June, please catch me at Proof of Talk to hear about asset tokenization and the geopolitics of blockchain
May 13, 2025 at 5:47 PM
If you’re in Paris in June, please catch me at Proof of Talk to hear about asset tokenization and the geopolitics of blockchain
5 years ago today I went to a birthday party and picked up an unknown virus. Spent 10 days cooped up at home and when I wanted to return to normal, the whole world shut down. Happy COVID-anniversary!
March 6, 2025 at 11:04 PM
5 years ago today I went to a birthday party and picked up an unknown virus. Spent 10 days cooped up at home and when I wanted to return to normal, the whole world shut down. Happy COVID-anniversary!
There is a big misunderstanding about the fiscal multiplier for Europe. Generally assumed to be low, this applies to large established industries. The multiplier is high when an industry is set for structural growth and can create industrial clusters. 1/
March 6, 2025 at 1:43 AM
There is a big misunderstanding about the fiscal multiplier for Europe. Generally assumed to be low, this applies to large established industries. The multiplier is high when an industry is set for structural growth and can create industrial clusters. 1/
Reposted by Elliot Hentov
Italy's Corriere della Sera with key observations and data, picking up on Brad and my work.
The newspaper highlights how China's aggressive export-led growth model, which is hammering the German economy, is having serious knock-on effects for Italy.
The German crisis is a European crisis.
1/x
The newspaper highlights how China's aggressive export-led growth model, which is hammering the German economy, is having serious knock-on effects for Italy.
The German crisis is a European crisis.
1/x
February 15, 2025 at 11:14 AM
Italy's Corriere della Sera with key observations and data, picking up on Brad and my work.
The newspaper highlights how China's aggressive export-led growth model, which is hammering the German economy, is having serious knock-on effects for Italy.
The German crisis is a European crisis.
1/x
The newspaper highlights how China's aggressive export-led growth model, which is hammering the German economy, is having serious knock-on effects for Italy.
The German crisis is a European crisis.
1/x
Reposted by Elliot Hentov
EU boat built in middle of storm.
February 15, 2025 at 1:48 PM
EU boat built in middle of storm.
Forward looking story with tariffs is the risk of miscalculation and a counterparty calling Trump bluff. That would ratchet up the disruption he would need to threaten in all other negotiations (trade and otherwise). Base case is he declares victory in talks this week and calls it off
February 2, 2025 at 11:17 AM
Forward looking story with tariffs is the risk of miscalculation and a counterparty calling Trump bluff. That would ratchet up the disruption he would need to threaten in all other negotiations (trade and otherwise). Base case is he declares victory in talks this week and calls it off
Reposted by Elliot Hentov
Thought provoking from @izakaminska.bsky.social www.politico.eu/article/dona...
Europe hasn’t grasped the real economic threat from Trump
It’s not industrial policy that the bloc has to worry about, it’s the rise of national capitalism.
www.politico.eu
January 25, 2025 at 4:40 AM
Thought provoking from @izakaminska.bsky.social www.politico.eu/article/dona...
How to understand geopolitics today and what the Greenland takeover represents? The global order has changed and many are still in denial. There have been three major shifts in recent years laying the groundwork. A short 🧵on what to expect in 2025…1/
January 12, 2025 at 3:49 PM
How to understand geopolitics today and what the Greenland takeover represents? The global order has changed and many are still in denial. There have been three major shifts in recent years laying the groundwork. A short 🧵on what to expect in 2025…1/
Hard to detach from personal worries about friends and family in LA, but also starting to consider whether this has macro implications. 1) economic channel will be huge for CA but nationally should still be modest. Current estimates of $150-200bn of damage still equates to less than 1% of GDP. 1/
January 11, 2025 at 1:26 PM
Hard to detach from personal worries about friends and family in LA, but also starting to consider whether this has macro implications. 1) economic channel will be huge for CA but nationally should still be modest. Current estimates of $150-200bn of damage still equates to less than 1% of GDP. 1/
Fall of Damascus will create a crisis in Tehran. Biggest risk for authoritarian regimes is elite infighting. Having your grand foreign policy blow up within a year will trigger such dissent and intrigue. Popular unrest and foreign influence could add to regime instability in 2025
December 7, 2024 at 11:43 PM
Fall of Damascus will create a crisis in Tehran. Biggest risk for authoritarian regimes is elite infighting. Having your grand foreign policy blow up within a year will trigger such dissent and intrigue. Popular unrest and foreign influence could add to regime instability in 2025
Reposted by Elliot Hentov
Recently I have been getting a whole lot of questions from policymakers and investors about how a rise in US and global tariffs and trade intervention might affect China's economic rebalancing. I explain in my most recent piece for China Reform Imperative.
carnegieendowment.org/posts/2024/1...
carnegieendowment.org/posts/2024/1...
Would U.S. Tariffs Shift Beijing’s Focus to Consumption?
Trade never clears incrementally. It only clears systemically, and external imbalances are always, and must always be, perfectly consistent with internal imbalances.
carnegieendowment.org
November 26, 2024 at 11:23 AM
Recently I have been getting a whole lot of questions from policymakers and investors about how a rise in US and global tariffs and trade intervention might affect China's economic rebalancing. I explain in my most recent piece for China Reform Imperative.
carnegieendowment.org/posts/2024/1...
carnegieendowment.org/posts/2024/1...
Reposted by Elliot Hentov
My Trade Secrets today. Even if Biden's green spending gets axed by Trump, the global green transition will continue. The tech mainly comes from China & falling costs have given it momentum.
The threat from Trump is more an investment-chilling environment of high interest rates.
on.ft.com/4eOpSsg
The threat from Trump is more an investment-chilling environment of high interest rates.
on.ft.com/4eOpSsg
November 21, 2024 at 12:41 PM
My Trade Secrets today. Even if Biden's green spending gets axed by Trump, the global green transition will continue. The tech mainly comes from China & falling costs have given it momentum.
The threat from Trump is more an investment-chilling environment of high interest rates.
on.ft.com/4eOpSsg
The threat from Trump is more an investment-chilling environment of high interest rates.
on.ft.com/4eOpSsg
Reposted by Elliot Hentov
"Israel must suppress its tactical impulses and prioritize strategic thinking to dismantle one of its most potent adversaries."
Excellent analysis of strategic opportunities after Nasrallah by Alexandra Veyne for the Irregular Warfare Initiative. irregularwarfare.org/articles/the...
Excellent analysis of strategic opportunities after Nasrallah by Alexandra Veyne for the Irregular Warfare Initiative. irregularwarfare.org/articles/the...
The Day After Nasrallah: Succession and Strategic Opportunities - Irregular Warfare Initiative
On October 15, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) released an interrogation video of the first captured Hezbollah militant since the beginning of Israel’s ground incursion in southern Lebanon. Wadah Youn...
irregularwarfare.org
November 19, 2024 at 2:08 PM
"Israel must suppress its tactical impulses and prioritize strategic thinking to dismantle one of its most potent adversaries."
Excellent analysis of strategic opportunities after Nasrallah by Alexandra Veyne for the Irregular Warfare Initiative. irregularwarfare.org/articles/the...
Excellent analysis of strategic opportunities after Nasrallah by Alexandra Veyne for the Irregular Warfare Initiative. irregularwarfare.org/articles/the...
Reposted by Elliot Hentov
“One mile on a bike is a $.42 economic gain to society, one mile driving is a $.20 loss.”
“Which means that Copenhagen, a city of 1.2 million people, saves $357 million a year on health costs because something like 80% of its population commutes by bike, even in winter.”
grist.org/biking/one-m...
“Which means that Copenhagen, a city of 1.2 million people, saves $357 million a year on health costs because something like 80% of its population commutes by bike, even in winter.”
grist.org/biking/one-m...
One mile on a bike is a $.42 economic gain to society, one mile driving is a $.20 loss
Copenhagen, the bicycle-friendliest place on the planet, publishes a biannual Bicycle Account, and buried in its pages is a rather astonishing fact.
grist.org
November 17, 2024 at 9:02 PM
“One mile on a bike is a $.42 economic gain to society, one mile driving is a $.20 loss.”
“Which means that Copenhagen, a city of 1.2 million people, saves $357 million a year on health costs because something like 80% of its population commutes by bike, even in winter.”
grist.org/biking/one-m...
“Which means that Copenhagen, a city of 1.2 million people, saves $357 million a year on health costs because something like 80% of its population commutes by bike, even in winter.”
grist.org/biking/one-m...
Yes, Bitcoin is booming, but focus on the technology:
>>ASSET TOKENIZATION IN CAPITAL MARKETS<<
Q: Where, when & how will tokenization transform each corner of finance? A: Effect will a) not be equally impactful and b) will not occur at same time.
Link to full paper:
ssga.com/library-cont...
>>ASSET TOKENIZATION IN CAPITAL MARKETS<<
Q: Where, when & how will tokenization transform each corner of finance? A: Effect will a) not be equally impactful and b) will not occur at same time.
Link to full paper:
ssga.com/library-cont...
November 12, 2024 at 9:11 AM
Yes, Bitcoin is booming, but focus on the technology:
>>ASSET TOKENIZATION IN CAPITAL MARKETS<<
Q: Where, when & how will tokenization transform each corner of finance? A: Effect will a) not be equally impactful and b) will not occur at same time.
Link to full paper:
ssga.com/library-cont...
>>ASSET TOKENIZATION IN CAPITAL MARKETS<<
Q: Where, when & how will tokenization transform each corner of finance? A: Effect will a) not be equally impactful and b) will not occur at same time.
Link to full paper:
ssga.com/library-cont...
This may still be a low estimate. Standard figures typically measured apples-for-apples job moves, ie a London role moves to the continent. In reality, it was any new roles created that was relocated, esp ones in tier 2 English cities that wandered off. Track growth of fin jobs in top 12 Euro cities
City of London chief says Brexit 'disaster' cost 40,000 finance jobs
www.reuters.com/world/uk/cit...
www.reuters.com/world/uk/cit...
City of London chief says Brexit 'disaster' cost 40,000 finance jobs
Britain's departure from the European Union cost London's financial centre about 40,000 jobs, the Lord Mayor of the City of London told Reuters, a far deeper impact from Brexit than previous estimates.
www.reuters.com
October 16, 2024 at 12:10 PM
This may still be a low estimate. Standard figures typically measured apples-for-apples job moves, ie a London role moves to the continent. In reality, it was any new roles created that was relocated, esp ones in tier 2 English cities that wandered off. Track growth of fin jobs in top 12 Euro cities
China stimulus is a genuine pivot but real test is still to come www.cnbc.com/video/2024/1...
China's stimulus measures are big, but temporary, macro policy researcher says
Elliot Hentov, head of macro policy research at State Street Global Advisors, discusses the outlook for the Chinese economy.
www.cnbc.com
October 4, 2024 at 5:28 PM
China stimulus is a genuine pivot but real test is still to come www.cnbc.com/video/2024/1...
How to evaluate the US election from a markets perspective? Remarkably subdued in ‘24 compared to previous cycles but some policy differences do matter and could lead to repricing. Just released a podcast yesterday that reviews this in detail
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/s...
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/s...
Street Signals
Listen to State Street Global Markets’s Street Signals podcast on Apple Podcasts.
podcasts.apple.com
September 27, 2024 at 10:57 AM
How to evaluate the US election from a markets perspective? Remarkably subdued in ‘24 compared to previous cycles but some policy differences do matter and could lead to repricing. Just released a podcast yesterday that reviews this in detail
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/s...
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/s...
Large fiscal deficits for years to come - who will buy these extra US Treasuries? We took a look at the supply/demand dynamics at play www.statestreet.com/gb/en/indivi...
Who will buy the oncoming surge of Treasuries? And at what price? | State Street
US Treasuries face unprecedented supply challenges, impacting yields, liquidity and investor demand. Our research explores key risks and implications for global financial markets.
www.statestreet.com
September 9, 2024 at 9:38 PM
Large fiscal deficits for years to come - who will buy these extra US Treasuries? We took a look at the supply/demand dynamics at play www.statestreet.com/gb/en/indivi...
On CNBC this week to make 3 market points related to US election:
1. Harris replacement of Biden significantly raises odds of divided Congress (House Dems to outperform presidential result) and ergo lowers the chances of a fiscal shock and disorderly curve steepening.
www.cnbc.com/video/2024/0...
1. Harris replacement of Biden significantly raises odds of divided Congress (House Dems to outperform presidential result) and ergo lowers the chances of a fiscal shock and disorderly curve steepening.
www.cnbc.com/video/2024/0...
Chance of significant U.S. fiscal expansion has receded, researcher says
Elliot Hentov, head of macro policy research at State Street Global Advisors, discusses the market implications of U.S. fiscal policy.
www.cnbc.com
August 17, 2024 at 4:31 PM
On CNBC this week to make 3 market points related to US election:
1. Harris replacement of Biden significantly raises odds of divided Congress (House Dems to outperform presidential result) and ergo lowers the chances of a fiscal shock and disorderly curve steepening.
www.cnbc.com/video/2024/0...
1. Harris replacement of Biden significantly raises odds of divided Congress (House Dems to outperform presidential result) and ergo lowers the chances of a fiscal shock and disorderly curve steepening.
www.cnbc.com/video/2024/0...