Soundtrack for Sep comment: She Did It - Eric Carmen, 1977

Session roster is crazy!
Backup: Beach Boys Bruce Johnston & Brian Wilson
Burton Cummings - Guess Who
Nigel Olsson - Elton's drummer
Drums: Jeff Porcaro - Toto
Guitar: Andrew Gold (Lonely Boy)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cjxp...

That said, on the subject of seeing valuations at the most extreme point in history, yet seeing it not matter - we don't need to rely on a collapse to allow for the possibility. Here's what I wrote in March 2000 just before the NDX dropped by, well, 83%.

The return from today to tomorrow is proportional to the crash hazard rate. In essence, investors must be compensated to hold an asset that might crash - implying an underlying risk, not yet revealed in the price dynamics, which justifies this apparent free ride and free lunch.

– Didier Sornette

Excellent summation of AI usage:

"... the less you’re willing to think, the more vulnerable you are to having AI think for you, and the more you’re willing to think, the greater the opportunity you have for AI to leverage your insight....Our most urgent focus should be on that choice."

The hedge is the margin of safety. You may not know my 40 year record on that, but then, it admittedly was hidden under a bushel in this bubble

gotta love a regularity, particularly when you don't rely on it

depends on stock selection

’The singularity is not the date of a “crash.” Rather, it’s the point where the pitch of the advance reaches its extreme.‘ www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25... by @hussmanjp.bsky.social

Surreal 😉

Bonus! Billboard Hot 100 from October 1977. Crazy how many classics these 70’s charts have week after week.
www.billboard.com/charts/hot-1...

A new market comment from @hussmanjp.bsky.social just dropped and it dispels a lot of myths. 👇🏼

www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...

New comment is up! 🐳
www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...

“what does not kill me makes me stronger“ - SARS-Cov2, as quoted by Nietzsche

“I won’t be ignored“ - SARS-Cov2, as played by Glenn Close

thankfully just infectivity

😉

… meanwhile on the artist formerly known as Twitter

‘The Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio is hovering around 37.5. Over 35 is ”the only cutoff point where every single time is negative.”‘ www.businessinsider.com/stock-market...

This is, because that is
This is not, because that is not.
They are like this, because we are like that
They are not like this, because we are not like that.
- Buddha

We are all made of one same substance; a shared humanity. The only enemy is our forgetfulness of that reality.

Great Doodle today if you're a math geek 🤓
doodles.google/doodle/learn...

"it's funny 'cause it's true" - Homer Simpson

2/ 2025 large-scale (Japan)

Composite neurodevelopmental outcomes: 1.08 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.16). Confidence interval includes 1.0 (no effect)

ADHD: 1.22 (95% CI: 1.09, 1.36): Known, mild risk for hyperactivity

Autism (ASD): 1.06 (95% CI: 0.98, 1.15) for ASD

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

1/ JAMA (2024): Acetaminophen use during pregnancy was not associated with children's risk of autism, ADHD, or intellectual disability in sibling control analysis.

Cites confounding in prior studies. Own view: mild bump in risk for ADHD, but dose/duration dependent.
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

As @peteratwater.bsky.social would say, "there's a sentiment indicator in here somewhere."

Fun fact: the S&P 500 also averaged total returns of about 20% annually over the 18-year period to the 2000 bubble peak (see my August comment for more).

Love that the author's last name is Karma.

As followers of feed are well-aware, "un-" words like unstoppable and uninvestable always make me pause. Needless to say, "unsinkable" took my focus to a whole new level. www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-un...