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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 16d

Diolch Thom - you can get a general idea of it here and see individual constituency estimates. This isn’t exactly how i calculate mine but it does a good job jaclarner.github.io/senedd_ethol...

Senedd Election Simulator

Senedd Election Simulator - Visualize Welsh election results

jaclarner.github.io

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 21d

Two unpopular governments at both ends of the M4 🇬🇧🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

A bar chart showing approval and disapproval ratings for the UK and Welsh governments in April 2025 and September 2025. In April 2025, UK government approval was 15% with 60% disapproval (net -45%), while Welsh government had 19% approval and 48% disapproval (net -29%). By September 2025, UK government approval dropped to 8% with 71% disapproval (net -63%), and Welsh government approval fell to 12% with 51% disapproval (net -39%). Source: ITV Wales polling, Chart by Jac Larner

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 21d

Here you go yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

Reform and Plaid now neck and neck in Senedd voting intention | YouGov

Nigel Farage’s party also takes the lead in Westminster voting intention in Wales for the first time

yougov.co.uk

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 21d

This should be Reform on 37 not 35!

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 21d

The Westminster implications are staggering too. On these numbers, Labour would likely be reduced to just 3 Welsh seats, Plaid would win around 6, and Reform could take most of the remaining 23 seats out of Wales's 32 constituencies 🧵 End

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 21d

Reform's success creates its own problems for government formation. By cannibalising Conservative support, they may find themselves without natural coalition partners, while their vote could be inefficiently distributed across constituencies 🧵

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 21d

Coalition arithmetic looking a bit complicated - on these numbers only current realistic possibility is some sort of Plaid and Lab agreement (perhaps with LD and Green support). However, now in territory where more Labour losses put this at risk 🧵

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 21d

The seat projections are pretty dramatic. Allowing for movement of a few points in many directions: Plaid Cymru ~38 seats, Reform UK ~35 seats, Labour ~11 seats, Conservatives ~6 seats, Lib Dems ~3 seats, Greens ~ 1 🧵

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 21d

Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵

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Reposted by Jac Larner

madoc cairns @madoc.bsky.social · Jul 5

Ahead of the expected proscription of Palestine Action - the first time a protest group has been legally redefined as terrorist - I went through the Hansard of the 2000 Act they're being banned under. Turns out MPs were assured the law wouldn't be applied this way. Thread 🧵🔽

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · Jul 3

Does anybody have experience of recontacting Prolific participants after a study to measure attitude change over time? Struggling to find information on feasibility of this

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · May 22

For the first time all devolved national elections in the UK will use different electoral systems

Cool site below by @eoghanly.bsky.social allows you to see how they all work turning votes into seats 👇

Scottish Election Study @scotvoting.bsky.social · May 22

Our postdoc @eoghanly.bsky.social has co-developed
@devolvedelections.bsky.social, a seat projection tool for devolved elections 🤓🧮

You can select from some preset scenarios or plug in your own vote share numbers to generate precise estimates.

More info ⬇️

scottishelections.ac.uk/2025/05/22/a...

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · May 12

Probably would! www.nber.org/papers/w33767

Universal Pre-K as Economic Stimulus: Evidence from Nine States and Large Cities in the U.S.

Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

www.nber.org

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Reposted by Jac Larner

Eoghan Kelly @eoghanly.bsky.social · May 9

Our nowcast projection for the NI Assembly ‘27:
SF — 28 Seats
DUP — 21 Seats
AP — 16 Seats
UUP — 9 Seats
SDLP — 9 Seats
TUV — 7 Seats

From @devolvedelections.bsky.social & devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ireland/

Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool

Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, visual, and up-to-date!

devolvedelections.co.uk

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Reposted by Jac Larner

Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · May 8

Seen the headlines in today's Scottish papers? Join
@scotvoting.bsky.social team TONIGHT 6pm @uofglasgow.bsky.social for an analysis of the the state Scottish electoral politics One Year Out from the 2026 Holyrood elections. Boyd Orr Bldg in-person and on-line
www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/one-year-o...

One Year Out: The outlook for the 2026 Holyrood election

Join us on Thursday 8 May for this Stevenson Lecture with the Scottish Election Study Team.

www.eventbrite.co.uk

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · May 7

Yes exactly - it calculates swing from 2021 estimates so Greens would win in Cardiff South as they already did well there previously

Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · May 7

Finally it gives us information about coalition possibilities and proportionality of the results. I've written up an explainer here that outlines how it works, what it does and doesn't do, and also plans for improvement. blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

The 2026 Senedd Election Simulator: One Year to Go

Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.

blogs.cardiff.ac.uk

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · May 7

It also visualises for seats are actually allocated in different constituencies and tells us how tight the margins are.

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · May 7

First, and the obvious one, is that it can turn vote shares into estimates of seats in the new expanded Senedd using either uniform or proportional swing. Users can either enter their own numbers or choose from presets of different scenarios

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · May 7

Over last year I've been building a Senedd Election Simulator tool. It gives a useful (I hope!) visual explainer of how the new election system turns votes into seats.

🧵 on some of what it can do below:

jaclarner.github.io/senedd_ethol...

Senedd Election Simulator

Senedd Election Simulator - Visualize Welsh election results

jaclarner.github.io

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · May 6

This makes complete sense given who voters do and don't like! Here is a plot of mean 0-10 liveability scores 2024 voters gave to other parties. Labour and Plaid voters like each other quite a lot, whereas Reform voters don't particularly like anyone!

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · May 6

Lab's erosion follows pattern elsewhere: migration to progressive alternatives. Plaid are primary beneficiary, with 1/3 of '24 Labour Westminster voters now expressing voting intentions for Plaid. Amplifies established dual-voting where Labour Westminster supporters vote Plaid in devolved elections.

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · May 6

Important methodological context: this represents a single poll, & a new MRP methodology from YouGov not used in Senedd elections before. Wales also traditionally sees fewer high-quality polls than elsewhere so more weight often given to fewer polls

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · May 6

New @itvcymruwales.bsky.social poll shows substantial shift in Welsh political landscape. Plaid Cymru leads with 30%, Reform UK at 25%, Labour at 18% - their lowest since devolution- & Conservatives on 13% - one of their poorest Welsh polling performances in 2 decades. 🧵
www.itv.com/news/wales/2...

www.itv.com

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Reposted by Jac Larner

Centre on Constitutional Change @ccc-research.bsky.social · May 2

The @scotvoting.bsky.social Annual Lecture, 'The Unstable Vote' by @profjanegreen.bsky.social is being held in Edinburgh on Monday 12th May!

Register below 👇

Scottish Election Study @scotvoting.bsky.social · May 1

This year's Scottish Election Study Annual Lecture, delivered by our outstanding colleague and @britishelectionstudy.com Co-Director @profjanegreen.bsky.social, will take place a week on Monday in Edinburgh! 👩🏼‍🏫

Details and sign up below 🔽

www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/scottish-e...

Scottish Election Study annual lecture 2025

We welcome Professor Jane Green to give the annual lecture for the Scottish Election Study

www.eventbrite.co.uk

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