Jac Larner
@jaclarner.bsky.social
Politics Lecturer Cardiff University & Fellow Edinburgh University.
Political Psychology 🧠 & Public Opinion.
https://jaclarner.github.io/jaclarner/
Political Psychology 🧠 & Public Opinion.
https://jaclarner.github.io/jaclarner/
Why consolidate within blocs? Labour→Plaid switchers: 40% say Plaid better "stands up for Wales", 30% tactical. Tory→Reform: 37% immigration, 25% protest. Different motivations, same pattern: consolidation not conversion.
December 17, 2025 at 8:16 AM
Why consolidate within blocs? Labour→Plaid switchers: 40% say Plaid better "stands up for Wales", 30% tactical. Tory→Reform: 37% immigration, 25% protest. Different motivations, same pattern: consolidation not conversion.
Current polling shows the scale: Plaid & Reform both ~30%, Labour & Conservatives both ~10%. But crucially, the total size of each bloc hasn't really dramatically shifted. Few voters are crossing ideological divides - they've concluded different parties better represent their existing values.
December 17, 2025 at 8:16 AM
Current polling shows the scale: Plaid & Reform both ~30%, Labour & Conservatives both ~10%. But crucially, the total size of each bloc hasn't really dramatically shifted. Few voters are crossing ideological divides - they've concluded different parties better represent their existing values.
The evidence: In 2021, Labour dominated Welsh-identifying progressives; Plaid held perhaps a quarter. Today those proportions have nearly inverted. Mirror image on the right: Conservatives commanded British-identifying voters in 2021; Reform has now absorbed most of that support.
December 17, 2025 at 8:16 AM
The evidence: In 2021, Labour dominated Welsh-identifying progressives; Plaid held perhaps a quarter. Today those proportions have nearly inverted. Mirror image on the right: Conservatives commanded British-identifying voters in 2021; Reform has now absorbed most of that support.
Paper is a collab effort w/ awesome @scotvoting.bsky.social team; @robjohns75.bsky.social @frasmcm.bsky.social @ailsahenderson.bsky.social & @cjcarman.bsky.social . Thanks also to UK and Scot Govs for providing high profile scandals while we were able to collect data
November 11, 2025 at 9:00 AM
Paper is a collab effort w/ awesome @scotvoting.bsky.social team; @robjohns75.bsky.social @frasmcm.bsky.social @ailsahenderson.bsky.social & @cjcarman.bsky.social . Thanks also to UK and Scot Govs for providing high profile scandals while we were able to collect data
Diolch Thom - you can get a general idea of it here and see individual constituency estimates. This isn’t exactly how i calculate mine but it does a good job jaclarner.github.io/senedd_ethol...
Senedd Election Simulator
Senedd Election Simulator - Visualize Welsh election results
jaclarner.github.io
September 22, 2025 at 11:45 AM
Diolch Thom - you can get a general idea of it here and see individual constituency estimates. This isn’t exactly how i calculate mine but it does a good job jaclarner.github.io/senedd_ethol...
This should be Reform on 37 not 35!
September 16, 2025 at 5:46 PM
This should be Reform on 37 not 35!
The Westminster implications are staggering too. On these numbers, Labour would likely be reduced to just 3 Welsh seats, Plaid would win around 6, and Reform could take most of the remaining 23 seats out of Wales's 32 constituencies 🧵 End
September 16, 2025 at 4:47 PM
The Westminster implications are staggering too. On these numbers, Labour would likely be reduced to just 3 Welsh seats, Plaid would win around 6, and Reform could take most of the remaining 23 seats out of Wales's 32 constituencies 🧵 End
Reform's success creates its own problems for government formation. By cannibalising Conservative support, they may find themselves without natural coalition partners, while their vote could be inefficiently distributed across constituencies 🧵
September 16, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Reform's success creates its own problems for government formation. By cannibalising Conservative support, they may find themselves without natural coalition partners, while their vote could be inefficiently distributed across constituencies 🧵
Coalition arithmetic looking a bit complicated - on these numbers only current realistic possibility is some sort of Plaid and Lab agreement (perhaps with LD and Green support). However, now in territory where more Labour losses put this at risk 🧵
September 16, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Coalition arithmetic looking a bit complicated - on these numbers only current realistic possibility is some sort of Plaid and Lab agreement (perhaps with LD and Green support). However, now in territory where more Labour losses put this at risk 🧵
The seat projections are pretty dramatic. Allowing for movement of a few points in many directions: Plaid Cymru ~38 seats, Reform UK ~35 seats, Labour ~11 seats, Conservatives ~6 seats, Lib Dems ~3 seats, Greens ~ 1 🧵
September 16, 2025 at 4:47 PM
The seat projections are pretty dramatic. Allowing for movement of a few points in many directions: Plaid Cymru ~38 seats, Reform UK ~35 seats, Labour ~11 seats, Conservatives ~6 seats, Lib Dems ~3 seats, Greens ~ 1 🧵