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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 5d

I'm way outta my lane here, and playing with very hot fire. No intention to throw any shade, just wondering if others hear it. The hook on Taylor Swift's new single reminded of that from this older Demi Levato tune.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=svcb...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zfz...

Taylor Swift - The Fate of Ophelia (Visualizer)

YouTube video by Taylor Swift

www.youtube.com

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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 5d

Just so you know, if you hear a collective wail of pain, angst, and withdrawal from data nerds the world over at 8:30am ET this morning, here's why.

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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 7d

Neither the BLS establishment survey nor the ADP pick up self-employment. They're both payroll surveys of companies. The BLS Household survey does report self-emp.

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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 7d

BUT it's the only damn game in town right now and it's down (pvt sector only, of course, 3 outta the last 4 months. What's the signal here in your opinions?? My take: job creation very low; wouldn't over-torque on the ADP losses, but they do support low-hire view.

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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 7d

Paging @jedkolko.bsky.social @econberger.bsky.social @marthagimbel.bsky.social @ernietedeschi.bsky.social @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social @markzandi.bsky.social and all others who can help here.
I know we've always downplayed ADP, for good reasons. It's a different beast in many ways than BLS estab...

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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 15d

New from @nealemahoney.bsky.social and me: "Building an affordable economy: A three-legged stool strategy." Everybody's talking affordability, as they should be! Here's our framework & principles:
siepr.stanford.edu/publications...
Substack summary: econjared.substack.com/p/a-three-le...

A Three-Legged Affordability Agenda!

Just out from the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, by yours truly and the great Neale Mahoney.

econjared.substack.com

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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 22d

Not what I'd spend my time on right now, policy-wise, but seems fine for SEC to give public companies a choice of reporting earnings quarterly or semi-annually, as in the UK.

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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 29d

Job creation weaker, sure, but unemp rate not affected by this revision so not obvious that the labor market was "weaker" than we thought, as in more slack. Breakeven probably lower than we thought, so could have fewer jobs and not much unemp rate rise.

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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 29d

I did not fully appreciate how the BLS's staff efforts to “publish reliable data” could become an act of bravery in the struggle to preserve democracy. But that’s exactly what it is.
econjared.substack.com/p/a-contrast...

A Contrast in Numbers: The White House Forecast vs. BLS

The White House grows out of its deficit problem by way of a fantasy forecast. And then tells us it's BLS that's cooking the numbers.

econjared.substack.com

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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · Sep 7

As a former CEA chair, keeping that job* while being a Fed gov is like having the same guy be your AA sponsor and your bartender.

*This is the case even w "leave of absence," whatever that means.

Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · Sep 7

Last bit in Goolsbee interview, he is so calm that it's jarring.

To me, Stephen Miran's joining the Fed is not 'business as usual' of a former CEA member coming to the Fed. Miran will be at both at the same time. Also, he called out Goolsbee a year ago as political. youtu.be/41hdpI4IBtg?...

Fed's Goolsbee on Jobs Report, Rate Cut and Miran

YouTube video by Bloomberg Television

youtu.be

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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · Sep 3

Fun fact: Wally Adeyemo is just great to listen to on matters econ. Clear, concise, compelling, with years of experience to back it all up. Here he is on the latest episode of "Let's Do Lunch!"
contrarian.substack.com/p/lets-do-lu...

Let’s Do Lunch! 09/02

A recording from Jared Bernstein's Let's Do Lunch 09/02

contrarian.substack.com

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Reposted by Jared Bernstein

John Cassidy @johncassidysays.bsky.social · Sep 1

This from @jaredb-econ.bsky.social

"Labor Day message. History is clear that capitalism remains a highly effective system of generating growth and technological gains. But without an organized and aptly sized political counterforce, it will concentrate wealth and power..."

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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · Aug 26

I’m in exit aisle, dude!

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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · Aug 26

Trying to take a few minutes away from the news of the day but fate had other ideas.

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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · Aug 26

Listen to Aaron (and not just re listening to Jared)!

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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · Aug 12

All here: www.marketwatch.com/story/bls-no...

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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · Aug 12

I was referring AEI, not Trump's nominee.

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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · Aug 3

...corp power in sectors with inadequate competition and thereby excessive pricing power.
Entrenched forces will fight like hell to preserve rents at each step, but this is what the people want and need.
Oh, of course, no own goal kicks, such as sweeping tariffs. They've gotta go.

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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · Aug 3

From 30k feet up, the affordability agenda is a three-legged stool:
1) Take down regs whose cost>benefits to make it cheaper & faster to build in the US.
2) Direct subsidies to lower-inc HHs in key goods/servs where markets fail to meet affordable needs, such as child care and housing.
3) Reduce...

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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · Aug 1

Can’t do it. There’s just no substitute. We could get some useful info for sure, but BLS and rest of government stat infrastructure irreplaceable. For one, they make such info a public good. Who wants to pay for the unemployment rate? (I mean, I would, but u know what I mean.)

Cuabmoth @johnfriedman.bsky.social · Aug 1

How much can the private stats reports make up for the loss? Any chance that they would step into the BLS loss of credibility?

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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · Aug 1

I am. The BLS is staffed w high integrity staff who are 100% committed to accuracy and best practices. But yes—very worried about this.

ellenmarch.bsky.social @ellenmarch.bsky.social · Aug 1

@jaredb-econ.bsky.social are you worried?

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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · Aug 1

When they were little, I also used to make breakfast for the kids on jobs day. I’d ask them to predict payrolls and u rate. They did no better or worse than the pros.

Matt Darling @besttrousers.bsky.social · Aug 1

I usually make breakfast for my family in the morning, but on Jobs Day I order donuts; so my daughter usually yells at me that it's jobs day at 7:45.

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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · Jul 30

Was just half-listening to Powell presser and thought I heard him implicitly disagree w Waller re labor-market assessment. Gov W says it’s weak: Chair P says it’s solid. Key difference prob where you see labor supply. P sees it slowing at similar rate to labor demand (see u rate).

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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · Jul 22

Very interested in what Nick, one of the nation's premier Fed reporters, with deep historical knowledge, has to say about recent Fed...um..."developments."

The Contrarian @contrariannews.org · Jul 22

Let’s Do Lunch! in ONE HOUR

Join economists Jared Bernstein and Nick Timiraos as they answer YOUR most pressing financial questions

Watch on the Contrarian Substack | 12pm ET

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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · Jul 22

Here's the great @nealemahoney.bsky.social and I on a framework for thinking about affordability policy.
econjared.substack.com/p/everybodys...

Everybody's Talking About Affordability Policy. But How's That Supposed to Work?

Here's a framework on which to build out the policies and the big-tent politics.

econjared.substack.com

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