Paul M. Jacobson
@jciconsult.bsky.social
A consulting economist for over 50 years with a love of data analysis.
Reposted by Paul M. Jacobson
This chart shows how the distribution of price changes across 184 unique (unweighted) CPI product categories has evolved since 2021. The inflation surge is evident between late 2021 and Jan 2024, as is a smaller over-correction relative to the 2% target until the spring of 2025. #cdnecon
December 7, 2025 at 8:51 PM
This chart shows how the distribution of price changes across 184 unique (unweighted) CPI product categories has evolved since 2021. The inflation surge is evident between late 2021 and Jan 2024, as is a smaller over-correction relative to the 2% target until the spring of 2025. #cdnecon
#productivty #2025-q3
Uncertainty headwinds and tariff silliness have had their mark. Output has been driving the short-term changes in productivity rather than labour inputs.
Labour Productivity and Cost 2025-q3
pauljacobson.substack.com
Uncertainty headwinds and tariff silliness have had their mark. Output has been driving the short-term changes in productivity rather than labour inputs.
Labour Productivity and Cost 2025-q3
pauljacobson.substack.com
Paul’s Substack | Paul Jacobson | Substack
My personal Substack. Click to read Paul’s Substack, by Paul Jacobson, a Substack publication with hundreds of subscribers.
pauljacobson.substack.com
December 3, 2025 at 11:10 PM
#productivty #2025-q3
Uncertainty headwinds and tariff silliness have had their mark. Output has been driving the short-term changes in productivity rather than labour inputs.
Labour Productivity and Cost 2025-q3
pauljacobson.substack.com
Uncertainty headwinds and tariff silliness have had their mark. Output has been driving the short-term changes in productivity rather than labour inputs.
Labour Productivity and Cost 2025-q3
pauljacobson.substack.com
CPI 2025-10 -
#cpi #canada #provinces #2025-10 – The y/y price change in 2025-10 is slightly lower, strongly influenced by the y/y change in gasoline. The Daily’s opening chart shows that without gasoline changes, the plot of y/y changes is really not doing much.
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
#cpi #canada #provinces #2025-10 – The y/y price change in 2025-10 is slightly lower, strongly influenced by the y/y change in gasoline. The Daily’s opening chart shows that without gasoline changes, the plot of y/y changes is really not doing much.
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
CPI 2025-10 - it is a gas
Gasoline is not the only story.
open.substack.com
November 17, 2025 at 3:40 PM
CPI 2025-10 -
#cpi #canada #provinces #2025-10 – The y/y price change in 2025-10 is slightly lower, strongly influenced by the y/y change in gasoline. The Daily’s opening chart shows that without gasoline changes, the plot of y/y changes is really not doing much.
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
#cpi #canada #provinces #2025-10 – The y/y price change in 2025-10 is slightly lower, strongly influenced by the y/y change in gasoline. The Daily’s opening chart shows that without gasoline changes, the plot of y/y changes is really not doing much.
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
#lfs #canada #provinces #2025-10 –
We have growth but in aggregate, services are the story with a big emphasis on retail/wholesale and transportation. At the Canada level, construction employment continues to slide. Here is a substack
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
We have growth but in aggregate, services are the story with a big emphasis on retail/wholesale and transportation. At the Canada level, construction employment continues to slide. Here is a substack
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
LFS Employment Increase - 2025-10
#LFS #employment #canada #provinces
open.substack.com
November 7, 2025 at 6:16 PM
#lfs #canada #provinces #2025-10 –
We have growth but in aggregate, services are the story with a big emphasis on retail/wholesale and transportation. At the Canada level, construction employment continues to slide. Here is a substack
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
We have growth but in aggregate, services are the story with a big emphasis on retail/wholesale and transportation. At the Canada level, construction employment continues to slide. Here is a substack
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
A very useful study. The weaker economies hadvthr most to gain and generally did.
www.euronews.com/business/202...
www.euronews.com/business/202...
Twenty years on: Did joining the EU make new members richer?
EU membership enjoys strong approval in new member states largely thanks to the economic firepower they have gained. Euronews Business takes a closer look at the GDP growth story in the new accession ...
www.euronews.com
November 3, 2025 at 4:54 PM
A very useful study. The weaker economies hadvthr most to gain and generally did.
www.euronews.com/business/202...
www.euronews.com/business/202...
#gdp #canada #2025-07 – It is an uptick, folks, driven by goods, but the uptick just offsets the downdraft from the preceding 2 months. Substack summary:
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
GDP -2025-07 - an uptick but..
Overview
open.substack.com
September 26, 2025 at 4:06 PM
#gdp #canada #2025-07 – It is an uptick, folks, driven by goods, but the uptick just offsets the downdraft from the preceding 2 months. Substack summary:
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
#cpi hashtag#canada hashtag#provinces #2025-08 – Gasoline volatility really bounces the aggregate
The substack contains more detail.
CPI 2025-08 - Volatility, Gas prices and supply effects
pauljacobson.substack.com
The substack contains more detail.
CPI 2025-08 - Volatility, Gas prices and supply effects
pauljacobson.substack.com
Paul’s Substack | Paul Jacobson | Substack
My personal Substack. Click to read Paul’s Substack, by Paul Jacobson, a Substack publication with hundreds of subscribers.
pauljacobson.substack.com
September 16, 2025 at 11:37 PM
#cpi hashtag#canada hashtag#provinces #2025-08 – Gasoline volatility really bounces the aggregate
The substack contains more detail.
CPI 2025-08 - Volatility, Gas prices and supply effects
pauljacobson.substack.com
The substack contains more detail.
CPI 2025-08 - Volatility, Gas prices and supply effects
pauljacobson.substack.com
LFS Employment 2025-08 #lfs #employment #canada #provinces the weakness continues
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
LFS Employment 2025-08
#lfs #employment #canada #provinces
open.substack.com
September 5, 2025 at 3:05 PM
LFS Employment 2025-08 #lfs #employment #canada #provinces the weakness continues
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
Perspective (starting point) matters. Headline y/y CPI change was 1.9% compared to 1.7% in May. Price change in monthly terms is relatively soft. The monthly chart is not bounced by the carbon tax in June but look at April.
CPI Inflation - Bounces due to energy open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
CPI Inflation - Bounces due to energy open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
CPI Inflation - Bounces due to energy
#CPI #inflation #canada #provinces #2025-06
open.substack.com
July 15, 2025 at 3:21 PM
Perspective (starting point) matters. Headline y/y CPI change was 1.9% compared to 1.7% in May. Price change in monthly terms is relatively soft. The monthly chart is not bounced by the carbon tax in June but look at April.
CPI Inflation - Bounces due to energy open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
CPI Inflation - Bounces due to energy open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
Reposted by Paul M. Jacobson
Ontario's college crisis needs immediate action and funding to protect education. Cartoon in the Friday Hamilton Spectator: www.thespec.com/opinion/doug...
Doug Ford jackhammers away at colleges bridge
Ontario’s college crisis reveals the consequences of chronic underfunding and overreliance on international student tuition, leading to massive job losses and deep program cuts.
www.thespec.com
July 11, 2025 at 11:42 AM
Ontario's college crisis needs immediate action and funding to protect education. Cartoon in the Friday Hamilton Spectator: www.thespec.com/opinion/doug...
LFS Employment 2025-06 #canada hashtag#employment hashtag#provinces #202506 - The Daily reports employment gains for core-aged males (+62,000; +0.8%) and females (+29,000; +0.4%)in the reference week of June 15-21 2025. A small gain after flat is not exciting.
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
LFS Employment 2025-06
#canada #employment #provinces
open.substack.com
July 11, 2025 at 2:47 PM
LFS Employment 2025-06 #canada hashtag#employment hashtag#provinces #202506 - The Daily reports employment gains for core-aged males (+62,000; +0.8%) and females (+29,000; +0.4%)in the reference week of June 15-21 2025. A small gain after flat is not exciting.
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
Industry GDP through 2025-04 #gdp #canada -With data through 2025-04, our perspective is conditioned by 90 days of Trumpian TACO turmoil. Aggregate GDP dropped by 0.1%. The initial charts shows it could have been worse without public and finance sector growth.
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
Industry GDP through 2025-04
#canada #gdp
open.substack.com
June 27, 2025 at 2:41 PM
Industry GDP through 2025-04 #gdp #canada -With data through 2025-04, our perspective is conditioned by 90 days of Trumpian TACO turmoil. Aggregate GDP dropped by 0.1%. The initial charts shows it could have been worse without public and finance sector growth.
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
Payroll Employment and Vacancies - 2025-04 #canada #provinces. A flat aggregate hides a lot of action. See the substack.
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
Payroll Employment and Vacancies - 2025-04
#canada #provinces #flat
open.substack.com
June 26, 2025 at 2:50 PM
Payroll Employment and Vacancies - 2025-04 #canada #provinces. A flat aggregate hides a lot of action. See the substack.
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
#canada #provinces #inflation - Inflation is stable but the details matter both by category and regioin.
CPI Inflation 2025-05 1.7% open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
CPI Inflation 2025-05 1.7% open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
CPI Inflation 2025-05 1.7%
Introduction
open.substack.com
June 24, 2025 at 3:16 PM
#canada #provinces #inflation - Inflation is stable but the details matter both by category and regioin.
CPI Inflation 2025-05 1.7% open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
CPI Inflation 2025-05 1.7% open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
Canada is a small open economy. Trade is important both for exports and imports. Personal consumption includes goods of varying characteristics and services.
CONSUMPTION SHARES FOR 2023 OF IMPORTS, MARGINS AND TAXES open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
CONSUMPTION SHARES FOR 2023 OF IMPORTS, MARGINS AND TAXES open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
CONSUMPTION SHARES FOR 2023 OF IMPORTS, MARGINS AND TAXES
Consumption Imports and Margins Methodology
open.substack.com
June 23, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Canada is a small open economy. Trade is important both for exports and imports. Personal consumption includes goods of varying characteristics and services.
CONSUMPTION SHARES FOR 2023 OF IMPORTS, MARGINS AND TAXES open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
CONSUMPTION SHARES FOR 2023 OF IMPORTS, MARGINS AND TAXES open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
Reposted by Paul M. Jacobson
The dreadful Bill 17 | in the Friday Hamilton Spectator #onpoli www.thespec.com/opinion/edit...
Captain Canada: A superhero for the developers
Premier Doug Ford's Bill 17 sidesteps environmental protections and local governance, prioritizing development at the cost of Ontario's sustainability.
www.thespec.com
June 6, 2025 at 11:37 AM
The dreadful Bill 17 | in the Friday Hamilton Spectator #onpoli www.thespec.com/opinion/edit...
LFS - May 2025 - Flat (more or less)
A flat national employment aggregate masks a lot of provincial variation.
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
A flat national employment aggregate masks a lot of provincial variation.
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
LFS - May 2025 - Flat (more or less)
#LFS ##Canada #provinces #2025-04
open.substack.com
June 6, 2025 at 2:52 PM
LFS - May 2025 - Flat (more or less)
A flat national employment aggregate masks a lot of provincial variation.
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
A flat national employment aggregate masks a lot of provincial variation.
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
Labour Productivity - 2025-q1
#canada hashtag#productivity
Top Line - Goods productivity up
The media focuses on the headline number of aggregate labour productivity which increased but at a slower rate for goods.
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
#canada hashtag#productivity
Top Line - Goods productivity up
The media focuses on the headline number of aggregate labour productivity which increased but at a slower rate for goods.
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
Labour Productivity - 2025-q1
#productivity #labour #2025-q1
open.substack.com
June 4, 2025 at 2:13 PM
Labour Productivity - 2025-q1
#canada hashtag#productivity
Top Line - Goods productivity up
The media focuses on the headline number of aggregate labour productivity which increased but at a slower rate for goods.
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
#canada hashtag#productivity
Top Line - Goods productivity up
The media focuses on the headline number of aggregate labour productivity which increased but at a slower rate for goods.
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
Payroll Employment and Vacancies 25-03 Many factors are driving our slowing performance. SEPH, a monthly regional survey, reminds us of how much is changing in a short time. The hours charts show the regional disparity.
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
Payroll Employment and Vacancies 25-03
#seph #canada #provinces #employment #wages
open.substack.com
May 29, 2025 at 2:17 PM
Payroll Employment and Vacancies 25-03 Many factors are driving our slowing performance. SEPH, a monthly regional survey, reminds us of how much is changing in a short time. The hours charts show the regional disparity.
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
CPI 2025-04 - Negligible current inflation
Measured inflation is just bouncing around with the key influence being energy prices. open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
Measured inflation is just bouncing around with the key influence being energy prices. open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
CPI 2025-04 - Negligible current inflatio
#canada #provinces #inflation
open.substack.com
May 20, 2025 at 2:50 PM
CPI 2025-04 - Negligible current inflation
Measured inflation is just bouncing around with the key influence being energy prices. open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
Measured inflation is just bouncing around with the key influence being energy prices. open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
LFS Canada and Provinces - Flat Aggregate 2025-04 The LFS is a survey. open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
May 9, 2025 at 2:42 PM
LFS Canada and Provinces - Flat Aggregate 2025-04 The LFS is a survey. open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
#merchandise hashtag#exports hashtag#imports hashtag#canada #2024-03 – As would be expected, the anticipation and reality of Trump have had a marked effect on imports (-1% $K).
Linkedin post
www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-j...
Linkedin post
www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-j...
May 6, 2025 at 2:39 PM
#merchandise hashtag#exports hashtag#imports hashtag#canada #2024-03 – As would be expected, the anticipation and reality of Trump have had a marked effect on imports (-1% $K).
Linkedin post
www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-j...
Linkedin post
www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-j...
Payroll Employment & Vacancies - 2025-02
#seph #employment #canada #provinces.
Anticipation of factors may be driving weaker growth.
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
#seph #employment #canada #provinces.
Anticipation of factors may be driving weaker growth.
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
Payroll Employment & Vacancies - 2025-02
#employment #canada #provinces Stability does not mean growth but at least not collapse
open.substack.com
April 24, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Payroll Employment & Vacancies - 2025-02
#seph #employment #canada #provinces.
Anticipation of factors may be driving weaker growth.
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
#seph #employment #canada #provinces.
Anticipation of factors may be driving weaker growth.
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
CPI 2025-3 Tax games complicate things. The end of the GST tax holiday complicates any analysis. However, no matter how you cut it, inflation has been slowing except of the effects of these games.
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
CPI 2025-3
#cpi #inflation #canada #provinces
open.substack.com
April 16, 2025 at 12:29 AM
CPI 2025-3 Tax games complicate things. The end of the GST tax holiday complicates any analysis. However, no matter how you cut it, inflation has been slowing except of the effects of these games.
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
CPI 2025-3 Canada, provinces - Energy and taxes provide lots of bounces
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
CPI 2025-3
#cpi #inflation #canada #provinces
open.substack.com
April 15, 2025 at 2:43 PM
CPI 2025-3 Canada, provinces - Energy and taxes provide lots of bounces
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...
open.substack.com/pub/pauljaco...