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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 3d

Student protests are basically a necessary condition for any democracy movement

open.substack.com/pub/data4dem...

Student-Led Pro-Democracy Protests and Their Impact Worldwide (1955-2025)
Outcome
• Successful Transition
• Long Term Impact|
• Partial Gains|
• No Immediate Gains
Hungary Uprising' °

1960
1970
Poland Protests' ® 'France May '68
° South Korea April Revolution
Mexico Movement, a, Yugoslavia Protests
Greece Polytechnic, o
1980
Poland Solidarity, O
" 'South Africa Soweto
Philippines People Power,®
Brazil Diretas Já
South Korea June Movement
Burma 8/8/88 China Tiananmen
1990
Vepal Jana Andolan|
Indonesia Reformasi, o
2000
zechoslovakia Velvet- & ,East Germany Participation
Taiwan Wild Lily
Serbia Otpor, & ran University Protests
o Ukraine Orange Revolution
Venezuela Movement, o
2010
long Kong Umbrella
Tunisia Participation
gypt Tahrir, & Chile Winter urkey Gezi Park, g, Ukraine Euremaidan
•,Ethiopia Protests
2020
Myanmar Protests' 8, Iran Life Freedom
Bangladesh July Revolution' & Serbia
Algeria Hirak' 8 Thailand Students
Note: This timeline illustrates major student-led protests from 1955 to 2025, highlighting their outcomes in terms of political and social change. Outcomes are categorized as 'Successful Transition' (leading directly to significant reforms or government changes), 'Long Term Impact' (initially limited but influential over time),
'Partial Gains' (achieving some concessions or moderate changes), and 'No Immediate Gains' (little to no short-term change despite protest efforts).

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Perry Bacon @perrybaconjr.bsky.social · 5d

"I don’t think the Democratic Party is at its best when it tries to compete with the Republican Party for the bottom of the barrel. I have yet to talk to a black person who has said to me, “You know what I want the Democratic Party to do—abandon issues of race,” says @hakeemjefferson.bsky.social.

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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 5d

Updated paper with @adambonica.bsky.social w/ many more measures of candidate ideology

Mass politics is volatile & uncertain these days, and you should take very confident pundit/consultant claims about What Candidates Should Do™ with a big grain of salt

www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/mjih7...

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Hakeem Jefferson @hakeemjefferson.bsky.social · 9d

So grateful for the powerful way @adambonica.bsky.social is using his voice right now.

You should read his latest piece.

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Jenny Shen @jennyqshen.bsky.social · 9d

Bryan Stevenson is an American hero. And the Equal Justice Initiative is always worth donating to if you’re able

JazzReads📚 @jazzreads.bsky.social · 9d

So exhausting..

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Keith Harris @usefulnoise.bsky.social · 9d

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Jenny Shen @jennyqshen.bsky.social · 9d

The entire piece is worth a read.

"The evidence suggests that compromising on basic humanity doesn’t broaden coalitions; it hollows them out. The work now is to find ways to expand our reach without abandoning our foundation—to bridge gaps, yes, but never at the expense of our neighbor’s humanity."

"The authoritarian playbook deliberately seeks to conflate these two forms of anger. First, you normalize hate by presenting it as merely another political position deserving of debate. Then, when people express righteous anger at this dehumanization, you accuse them of being the real problem—intolerant, divisive, unwilling to engage in public discourse. The aggressor becomes the victim; the defense of human dignity becomes the attack on civil discourse.

Klein’s strategic pragmatism—suggesting pro-life Democrats run in red states, seeking compromises that might expand the coalition—has an appeal, assuming one accepts the premise that the dwindling political center remains the main electoral prize. Sometimes difficult compromises have led to better outcomes: Obama’s calculated positions on same-sex marriage arguably helped him appoint justices who advanced equality. But these compromises carry profound risks. They signal whose humanity is negotiable. They tell vulnerable people that their rights are chips to be bargained when convenient. And crucially, such compromises should never be voluntary—they should only come when all other avenues have been exhausted, not as an opening bid for hypothetical coalition expansion.

But here’s where the strategic calculation becomes self-defeating: “Bridging gaps” cannot come at the expense of key parts of your coalition feeling abandoned and without a sense of belonging. When we muse about trading away reproductive rights or soft-pedal responses to hate speech, we don’t just lose moral clarity, we lose the very people whose passion and commitment form the backbone of progressive politics. The trans kids facing violence, the immigrants branded as invaders, the women losing bodily autonomy—they need to know their party won’t trade their humanity for swing votes. And so do their families and those who love them."

From Adam Bonica's "On Data and Democracy"
https://data4democracy.substack.com/p/you-cant-expand-the-tent-by-shrinking

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Kendra "Gloom is My Beat" Pierre-Louis @kendrawrites.com · 10d

Des Moines public school issues statements yesterday (scroll down) saying that Ian Roberts had an FBI background check in 2023 and it raised no red flags and Roberts said he was a US Citizen.

To summarize: ICE said Roberts entered the US in 1999. He was running track for Copin Sate though in 1997

Announcements on the Detention of Dr. Ian Roberts - Des Moines Public Schools

Public announcements and updates regarding the detention of Dr. Ian Roberts by Immigration Customs Enforcement (ICE) on Friday, September 26 are shared on this page: Friday, September 26 – approx. 12:...

www.dmschools.org

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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 9d

There is a difference between righteous anger, directed at injustice, and hateful anger, directed at those who are different. Authoritarian regimes deliberately conflate the two to silence criticism and create false equivalence. It's important we don't let those in power succeed in this endeavor.

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Will Stancil @whstancil.bsky.social · 10d

Insane.

Dems hire consultants who give them little keyword phrases. They believe if they repeat these phrases enough they’ll magically become popular and win elections: “Healthcare,” “grocery prices.”

It’s actual cargo cult thinking, and actively encouraged by the highest echelons of the party.

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Perry Bacon @perrybaconjr.bsky.social · 11d

"Infrequent voters are voting. It's a very low-trust environment. So the traditional left-right spectrum and going moderate on issues, it's not as clear. Anybody saying, 'I can win the election by tweaking positions" slightly is selling you something," says @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social.

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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 12d

I’m starting to notice a trend in the polling data…

—Top Public Worry: Corruption

—Biggest problem in Fed Gov: Corruption

—Top fear: Corruption

—What one word would you use to describe American government?: “Corrupt”

It’s almost like voters are trying to tell us something.

Top 10 American Fears of 2024 (Chapman Survey)
Horizontal bar chart ranking the top fears of Americans (percentage “afraid” or “very afraid”):
1. Corrupt government officials (65.2%, top fear for years).
2. Loved ones becoming seriously ill (58.4%).
3. Cyberterrorism (58.3%).
4. Loved ones dying (57.8%).
5. Russia using nuclear weapons (55.8%).
6. Not having enough money for the future (55.7%).
7. U.S. becoming involved in another world war (55.0%).
8. North Korea using nuclear weapons (55.0%).
9. Terrorist attack (52.7%).
10. Biological warfare (52.5%).
Red bars display percentages; small arrows indicate change from 2023 rankings.

Top Public Worries in the U.S. (Yale & GMU poll, May 2025)
Stacked bar chart of worries among U.S. adults. Categories ranked by share “very worried”:
• Government corruption (54% very worried, top issue).
• Other leading concerns: cost of living (48%), the economy (47%), state of democracy (44%), disruption of federal services (44%), cultural/social divisions (36%), treatment of immigrants (35%), global warming (29%), crime (26%).
• Lower worries include job security (17%), health (16%), and being targeted because of identity/beliefs (15%).
Green shades show “very/somewhat worried,” yellow/orange shades show “not very/not at all worried.

Perceptions of Federal Government Problems (AP-NORC poll)
Bar chart showing the percentage of U.S. adults who consider various issues in the federal government to be a major problem, minor problem, or not a problem.
• Corruption: Overall 70% major, 22% minor, 7% not a problem. Higher among Republicans (78%) than Democrats (63%).
• Inefficiency: 65% major overall, with Republicans (81%) much higher than Democrats (55%).
• Red tape (bureaucracy): 59% major overall, with Republicans (73%) higher than Democrats (47%).
• Civil servants unwilling to implement president’s agenda: More partisan split—Republicans 56% major problem, Democrats 20% major problem; overall 34% major, 36% minor, 28% not a problem.
Title: “Majority of the public believe corruption, inefficiency, and red tape are major problems in the federal government.

Word Cloud of How People Describe American Government (Berkeley Democracy Policy Lab)
Large central word: “Corrupt.” Other prominent words: Broken, Chaotic, Dysfunctional, Shit, Clueless, Divided, Inefficient, Crooked, Hijacked, Justice, Woke, Bloated, Untrustworthy, Hopeless, Frustrated, Disastrous, Messy, Sneaky, Turmoil, Delusional. Smaller scattered words include both negative and neutral terms such as Crap, Important, Poder, Resilient, Unfocused, Needs Help. Visual emphasizes “Corrupt” as the dominant public perception.

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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 14d

Political campaigns now burn 30¢ of every dollar raised just fundraising for more dollars (up from 9¢ in 2004).

In 2024, $3 Billion was spent on fundraising.

In 2026, fundraising costs are on track to exceed advertising spending for the first time.

The Fundraising-Industrial Complex Is Eating American Politics

New data reveals campaigns burn about a third of donations raised just asking for more donations

open.substack.com

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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 16d

Corruption is the achilles heel of authoritarians and frequently their downfall. To truly leverage this strategy, Democrats need to demonstrate authentic commitment to self-reform. This
requires cleaning up deceptive fundraising practices, breaking free from billionaire donors, and supporting popular reforms like banning congressional stock trading.
Superficial adoption of anti-corruption rhetoric without genuine action would be perceived as disingenuous and undermine the entire effort.
This also addresses a critical liability: the perception that Democrats are primarily committed to returning to the status quo. The party needs to shed that image and remake itself as a genuine reform party, advocating for systemic changes that address the public's deep-seated frustrations, not merely adjusting the margins of a system many view as fundamentally unfair.

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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 16d

Democrats should become the anti-corruption party. 72% of voters think a member of Congress would likely accept a bribe if offered one. 80% say donors run DC. The solution isn’t left vs right, it’s clean vs corrupt. But first, Democrats must reform themselves and reject big money.

The Democrats' Path Forward: Become the Anti-Corruption Party

But to reform the system they first need to reform the Democratic Party.

open.substack.com

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Perry Bacon @perrybaconjr.bsky.social · 17d

It's hard to prove anything electorally. But I think the @adambonica.bsky.social plan for the Democratic Party is electorally superior to abundance, fighting oligarchy and Third Way-ism and still could include the best policy ideas from the first two. data4democracy.substack.com/p/the-democr...

The Democrats' Path Forward: Become the Anti-Corruption Party

But to reform the system they first need to reform the Democratic Party.

data4democracy.substack.com

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Amanda Litman @amandalitman.bsky.social · 17d

This is a compelling argument from @adambonica.bsky.social. data4democracy.substack.com/p/the-democr...

The Democrats' Path Forward: Become the Anti-Corruption Party

But to reform the system they first need to reform the Democratic Party.

data4democracy.substack.com

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Perry Bacon @perrybaconjr.bsky.social · 25d

My look at why Brazil was able to stop and punish its anti-democratic right-wing president, while America allowed its authoritarian to run and win a second term. With thoughts from @adambonica.bsky.social and Bard College's Omar G. Encarnación. newrepublic.com/article/2004...

Brazil Stopped Its Trump. It’s Pathetic that We Couldn’t Stop Ours.

Brazil barred Bolsonaro from running again and is sending him to jail. Other countries have done it, too. Why is the United States a unique failure?

newrepublic.com

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Henry Farrell @himself.bsky.social · 24d

"“We’ve become a party that too often trims its sails. Too cautious, too rudderless. Too attached to poll-washed, pundit-rinsed, and donor-dried messages,” he said. “What comes out of the wash is all bleached and blow-dried.”

The New York Times @nytimes.com · 24d

Senator Chris Van Hollen, Democrat of Maryland, endorsed Zohran Mamdani for mayor of New York City on Saturday and called on his party’s leadership to do the same, criticizing them for a delay that he said allowed President Trump to exploit Democratic divisions.

Van Hollen Criticizes Democratic Leaders for Delay in Endorsing Mamdani

At an annual fund-raiser in Iowa, the Maryland Democrat said he supported Zohran Mamdani for mayor of New York City and said people were sick of “spineless politics.”

nyti.ms

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Karen K. Ho @karenho.bsky.social · 24d

I have written and deleted a lot of posts but I keep thinking about how the brutal assassination of Minnesota State senator Melissa Hortman, her husband Mark, and their beloved dog Gilbert in June did not prompt this same level of calls for empathy, sympathy, and flags at half-mast.

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Hakeem Jefferson @hakeemjefferson.bsky.social · 24d

I have many thoughts about Charlie Kirk—and perhaps even more about the white elites, including some on the left, who insist we can’t hold multiple realities at once. We can. And we must.

A brief 🧵

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Jenny Shen @jennyqshen.bsky.social · Aug 29

Long weekend binge: The Residence. It was beautifully done and so engaging. Plus, it had a brilliant hero who loves tinned fish!

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Jenny Shen @jennyqshen.bsky.social · Aug 26

Lots of good folks doing great work—but Perry Bacon is always worth the read

Perry Bacon @perrybaconjr.bsky.social · Aug 24

Thanks. But I think @gelliottmorris.com, @monicapotts.bsky.social, @annamaria.bsky.social, @bencasselman.bsky.social and a bunch of others are doing fantastic work. I am sad to see one prominent 538 alum spends so much time bashing academia because scholars do work that don't align with his views.

kn1feysp00ney.bsky.social @kn1feysp00ney.bsky.social · Aug 24

Perry is the best of the FiveThirtyEight alumni and it’s not even close.

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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · Aug 21

As a millennial, political fundraising spam is one industry I would happily take credit for killing.

Eric Blair @protecttruth.bsky.social · Aug 20

This is it. ActBlue just did basically what we asked for.

But it shouldn’t have fallen on @adambonica.bsky.social to lead this. It should have been party leadership. And right now that’s Schumer and Jeffries.

Santiago Mayer @santiagomayer.com · Aug 20

Good news for all of us tired of spammy fundraising texts from scam PACs!

As of today, ActBlue has new guidelines policing what organizations using their platform do:

👉 No more fake 400% matched
👉 No more using people’s names without approval
👉 No more failing to opt people out when requested

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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · Aug 21

Our argument isn't about running moderates vs. progressives. It's that the strategic imperative for Democrats is mobilizing registered Dems who stay home. Persuasion effects from ideology are marginal; wave elections happen when Dems mobilize. I'm glad Noah Smith outlined our actual argument:

Screenshot of a Bluesky thread by Adam Bonica (@adambonica.bsky.social) from five months ago discussing Democratic Party electoral strategy.
• Tweet 1: “2/ Individual Dem candidates gain modestly from ideological moderation, but the party-level pattern differs. Dems’ best years (2006, 2008, 2018) came when the party moved left. Their worst performances (2010, 2022) coincided with years the party ran to the center.” (7 comments, 88 reposts, 365 likes)
• Tweet 2: “3/ The driving factor? Partisan turnout differentials. When registered Democrat turnout approaches registered Republican levels, Dems perform substantially better. This isn’t about raising overall turnout, but specifically closing the partisan gap between D and R voters showing up at the polls.” (2 comments, 31 reposts, 259 likes)
• Tweet 3: “5/ The strategic dilemma: moderation may yield marginal persuasion gains but risks suppressing base enthusiasm and turnout—which our data shows is far more consequential. Successful electoral strategy requires more nuance than simply ‘moving to the center’ at all costs.” (4 comments, 50 reposts, 278 likes)
• Tweet 4: “6/ To be clear: our study doesn’t suggest running moderates in specific districts is a poor strategy—that approach can still yield vote-share gains. However, our data strong suggest that as a national party strategy, mobilizing Dem base voters delivers better results than chasing swing voters.” (1 comment, 46 reposts, 270 likes)
• Tweet 5: “7/ The conventional wisdom that Democrats must ‘run to the center’ to win elections simply doesn’t hold up empirically. When Democrats have moderated as a party, they’ve consistently performed worse electorally. When they have closed the partisan turnout gap, they’ve consistently performed well.” (7 comments, 99 reposts, 363 likes)

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