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Jess Ralston @jessralston.bsky.social · 2d

Put simply, renewables are lowering bills by billions per year and more of them will push older, less efficient gas off the system even more, lowering costs further

It would be good if this hidden saving was reflected in discussions about the cost of renewables...one can dream!

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Jess Ralston @jessralston.bsky.social · 2d

There's been some criticism of strike prices in the upcoming renewables auction.

But without the wind we already have on the system, the wholesale electricity price would actually be HIGHER than the strike prices for most technologies

& which may well fall anyway.

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Jess Ralston @jessralston.bsky.social · 2d

2) These savings to wholesale electricity prices are about 🟰 to support for wind farms from "green levies".

3) Renewables are pushing down the amount of time that gas sets the price of all generation - from 97% to 85%.

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Jess Ralston @jessralston.bsky.social · 2d

The results:
1) Wind farms cut the day-ahead wholesale price by up to a quarter (25%) in 2024, about £25/MWh

compared to if there was no/little wind, and gas instead

this hidden saving is not being considered by those who call to scrap renewables.

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Jess Ralston @jessralston.bsky.social · 2d

As wind & solar are cheaper, running off free sunshine & wind, the more renewables we have, the better

As they push older, less efficient gas power plants off the system and from being the marginal generator

The £ implications of this have been v hard to quantify...until now.

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Jess Ralston @jessralston.bsky.social · 2d

How are renewables lowering wholesale electricity prices?

Gas is normally the "marginal" generator, filling the last bit of supply to meet demand and it's price is high comparably

In UK, all generation on day-ahead market - even if cheaper - gets this final "marginal price".

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Jess Ralston @jessralston.bsky.social · 2d

Lots of talk about the "cost of renewables"

But have they actually LOWERED the price of electricity we pay TODAY?

TLDR; yes, by around a quarter, or £25/MWh

That's why it's a mistake to stop investment in them (*cough* certain politicians).

eciu.net/analysis/rep...

Marginal Gains: how wind is pushing gas out of the power market and…

Growth in British renewables cutting electricity prices by up to a quarter.

eciu.net

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Reposted by Jess Ralston

Tessa Khan @tessakhan.bsky.social · 17d

Some highly questionable industry assertions about ‘tiebacks’ and new oil & gas exploration licensing covered by the Sunday Times this morning, incl. the volume of potential production & the impact on jobs & supply chains. Let's take a closer look: www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...

Labour looks to water down North Sea drilling ban

Ed Miliband is expected to allow exploration next to existing sites to increase fossil fuel production without breaking a manifesto pledge

www.thetimes.com

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Jess Ralston @jessralston.bsky.social · 20d

Upgrading the electricity grid is a down payment on cheaper, more efficient system in future - increasingly using British wind & solar over imported gas.

Yes, we need to invest in the grid after decades of under-investment.

But today's grid upgrade is tomorrow's bill reduction.

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Jess Ralston @jessralston.bsky.social · 20d

4) Policy & nuclear costs up £18

£6 for so-called "green" levies, which help to pay for things like insulation into low-income households and the Warm Homes Discount

And nuclear costs up £12 to pay for continuously delayed & over-budget Sizewell C.

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Jess Ralston @jessralston.bsky.social · 20d

...and transport more British power from its source to our homes. It’s a necessary investment to reduce the amount of imported gas we need

AND reduces constraint payments, where we pay Scottish wind farms to turn off and gas to power up down South.

eciu.net/media/press-...

UK electricity ‘becoming more British’, less import dependent –…

New analysis finds that the UK’s electricity supply has become more British over the past decade

eciu.net

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Jess Ralston @jessralston.bsky.social · 20d

3) Electricity network costs up £40 (£30 for transmission):

- Some for maintenance and operation (business-as-usual)
- Some for building new infrastructure, pylons and cables etc, to allow new renewables to come online...

www.ofgem.gov.uk/sites/defaul...

www.ofgem.gov.uk

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Jess Ralston @jessralston.bsky.social · 20d

2) GAS NETWORK costs up £53 - the biggest chunk:

- For maintaining and operating gas networks
- Increased depreciation (paying off networks investments more quickly)

Don't know how this is a 'net zero cost' as suggested by the Telegraph this morning...

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Jess Ralston @jessralston.bsky.social · 20d

Industry experts @CornwallInsight predict that bills will go up around £100 in April 2026. Why?

1) Wholesale costs down £12 on previous quarter, as gas prices fall from peak levels BUT remain above pre-crisis levels

In Feb, they reached a 2-year high and are still volatile.

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Jess Ralston @jessralston.bsky.social · 20d

Why are bills going up by £100 in April?

R4 Today's Nick Robinson claimed "People say bills are going to go up... because *you’re determined not to use fossil fuels*"

With many households still struggling with the cost of living, let's look at what's *actually* happening...

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Jess Ralston @jessralston.bsky.social · Sep 3

Some politicians & the industry say max extraction from the N. Sea = energy price security

But a few billion barrels of oil equivalent, even if discovered and economically extracted (unlikely), won't make any difference.

eciu.net/media/press-...

North Sea moratorium equivalent to just one new offshore wind farm

New poll also finds 54% of Brits want tax cuts for renewables not for new oil and gas drilling

eciu.net

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Jess Ralston @jessralston.bsky.social · Sep 3

Huge O&G companies own what they get out the ground & sell it to highest bidder

Any new fields are potential liabilities, stranded assets as the world transitions, leading to a chaotic decline

Helping no-one, inc those working in N Sea supply chains.

bsky.app/profile/tors...

Torsten Bell @torstenbell.bsky.social · Sep 2

These Tory MPs are going to be furious when they find out who was in power when employment in offshore oil and gas HALVED between 2014 and 2023. The Conservatives are doubling down on being a cheap Reform tribute act rather than a serious party

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Jess Ralston @jessralston.bsky.social · Sep 3

As Prof. Gavin Bridge says: "Potential extraction will be from small, high-cost & risky fields...their development inconsistent with a managed decline while requiring risky subsidies and deregulation that benefit oil and gas companies, not the public."

bsky.app/profile/tess...

Tessa Khan @tessakhan.bsky.social · Sep 2

Badenoch wants to unleash the O&G regulator (the NSTA) to finally focus on maximising extraction. But the NSTA already has a Principal Objective, enshrined in law no less, that is literally "maximising the economic recovery" of oil & gas. Does she want the NSTA to encourage uneconomic extraction? /2

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Jess Ralston @jessralston.bsky.social · Sep 3

Plus, the potential resources in this report are globally insignificant

And any speculative discoveries don't change the geological fact that the North Sea IS RUNNING OUT

What's left is mostly oil - 70%
We export the majority of our oil - 80%

bsky.app/profile/tess...

Tessa Khan @tessakhan.bsky.social · Sep 2

Basically she is in deep denial about the geological reality of the North Sea, which is that it's been in decline for decades. New mandates & tax breaks galore will not change that. Even with new fields, our dependency on imported gas is set to rise to 97% by 2050. Time for a new plan folks! /5

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Jess Ralston @jessralston.bsky.social · Sep 3

OEUK's numbers are speculative, relying on unlikely discoveries.

Over the last 15y, hundreds of North Sea licenses have led to just 5 discoveries, with only 3 producing just a few weeks' worth of O&G

NO impact on bills as prices are set internationally.

bsky.app/profile/jess...

Jess Ralston @jessralston.bsky.social · Mar 25

So where have OEUK got their numbers from?

I think we can work out the answer from this chart on pg 38 of their report.

But what do all of these categories actually mean?

Thankfully the NSTA has the answers.

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Jess Ralston @jessralston.bsky.social · Sep 3

OEUK claim that O&G production could increase from 4.3bn barrels of oil equivalent to 7.5bn

...with changes to "incentives" aka subsidies and scrapping the Windfall Tax (which is hugely popular with voters) etc

This differs to the *official* estimates from the regulator 👀

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Jess Ralston @jessralston.bsky.social · Sep 3

How much oil and gas is REALLY left in the North Sea? 🤔

According to a new report by oil and gas lobby group @oeuk.bsky.social, loads!!!!

*As long as they get subsidies and deregulation*

Is this true? And if so, would it lower bills?

Let's investigate...

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Jess Ralston @jessralston.bsky.social · Aug 28

This £3000 added by wholesale prices is 7x (‼️) the costs of renewables schemes over the same period

(such as the Renewables Obligation, Feed-In Tariffs, & CfD agreements).

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Jess Ralston @jessralston.bsky.social · Aug 28

LONG-TERM: While wholesale costs didn't go up between Q3 and Q4 2025, they are responsible for the bulk of energy bill increases over the gas crisis.

Wholesale costs, driven by gas prices, will have added £3,000 to household energy bills by this autumn.

eciu.net/media/press-...

Energy price cap analysis: gas adding 7x more to bills than renewables

Analysis of the new energy bill price cap shows seven times the cost of schemes that support renewables

eciu.net

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Jess Ralston @jessralston.bsky.social · Aug 28

The grids need investment to accommodate new British generation and ensure more efficient transmission...

New wind & solar are vital for stabilising bills in future. They reduce the amount of expensive gas we need to import as the North Sea basin continues to decline.

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