jkobzova.bsky.social
Jana Kobzova
@jkobzova.bsky.social
710 followers 230 following 62 posts
Co-director, European Security Progtamme @ European Council on Foreign Relations @ecfr.eu, previously foreign policy advisor to Slovakia's President Caputova.
Posts Media Videos Starter Packs
Reposted by Jana Kobzova
kominmo.bsky.social
Mikhail Komin @kominmo.bsky.social · 16d
Continued my annual tradition of writing for @ecfr.eu on Russia’s local elections. The Kremlin uses these votes to test what may happen in the real campaigns
In 2025 we saw the growing role of war veterans—now entering regional parliaments and expected to fill the Duma in 2026
ecfr.eu/article/fro...
From battlefield to ballot box: Why Russia is drafting war veterans into politics
The rising prominence of veterans of the war in Ukraine will widen Russia’s elite coalition pushing for continued confrontation with the West…
ecfr.eu
1 2
jkobzova.bsky.social
Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · 2d
Still one of the best analyses of what #Russia’s recent local elections mean for the west, by @kominmo.bsky.social for @ecfr.eu
ecfr.eu
ECFR @ecfr.eu · 17d
The rising prominence of veterans of the war in Ukraine will widen Russia’s elite coalition pushing for continued confrontation with the West, writes Mikhail Komin @ecfrpower.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/41ZOv1o
From battlefield to ballot box: Why Russia is drafting war veterans into politics
The rising prominence of veterans of the war in Ukraine will widen Russia’s elite coalition pushing for continued confrontation with the West…
bit.ly
4 5
jkobzova.bsky.social
Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · 9d
As the polling stations in #Moldova close, here's a reminder from my @ecfr.eu colleagues @gvalodskaite.bsky.social and Leo Litra on what's at stake at this election:

ecfr.eu/article/love...
Love thy neighbour: Moldova’s election is a stress test for European resilience
Moldova’s parliamentary election will steer the country towards either the EU or Russia. Whatever the outcome, it is a chance for Europeans to understand Putin’s disinformation playbook and protect…
ecfr.eu
1 3 7
Reposted by Jana Kobzova
ecfr.eu
ECFR @ecfr.eu · 15d
#UNGA80 🧵
1/ Today, the UN Security Council meets to discuss the situation in Ukraine. In our latest podcast episode, Mark Leonard and
@jkobzova.bsky.social focused on the key developments in Russia’s war on Ukraine during the summer.
ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...
The dog days of summer: Ukraine battles and diplomacy
Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Kobzova to break down the summer’s key developments in Russia’s war on Ukraine…
ecfr.eu
1 1 1
jkobzova.bsky.social
Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · 15d
In the war in #Ukraine, “dog days” doesn’t equal “inactivity”. As #UNGA starts in full swing, here’s a recap of what’s been happening in & around Ukraine over the summer and what that means for Europe and the U.S. (spoiler alert: increasing transatlantic rift).
ecfr.eu
ECFR @ecfr.eu · 16d
In the latest episode of our podcast, Mark Leonard welcomed @jkobzova.bsky.social to break down the summer’s key developments in Russia’s war on Ukraine. Among other developments, they also discussed Ukraine’s domestic politics.
https://bit.ly/3VVY6CV
The dog days of summer: Ukraine battles and diplomacy
Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Kobzova to break down the summer’s key developments in Russia’s war on Ukraine…
ecfr.eu
1
jkobzova.bsky.social
Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · Sep 2
Bonne chance Marie!!!
1
jkobzova.bsky.social
Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · Aug 30
Still in shock. I remember Andriy back from the EuroMaidan days, as the “kommandant” of Maidan. RIP
christopherjm.ft.com
Christopher Miller @christopherjm.ft.com · Aug 30
The assassination of Andriy Parubiy, the former speaker of Ukraine’s parliament and a fierce opponent of Russia, is the most significant killing in a string of high-profile murders since the war with Russia began. www.ft.com/content/d08a...
Prominent Ukrainian nationalist politician shot dead in Lviv
Assassination of former parliament speaker Andriy Parubiy is the most significant in a series of high-profile killings
www.ft.com
3
jkobzova.bsky.social
Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · Aug 21
also, I think that this week, it's quite appropriate to repost this post-mortem on #Minsk agreements written by my brilliant ex-colleague from @ecfr.eu @dumoulinme.bsky.social who has direct experience from those talks.

ecfr.eu/article/ukra...
Ukraine, Russia, and the Minsk agreements: A post-mortem
Western policymakers should study the lessons of the Minsk agreements – and drop any illusions about the ways in which Russia supposedly acts.
ecfr.eu
2 4
jkobzova.bsky.social
Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · Aug 21
Per @financialtimes.com, a European diplomat described #Russia’s insistence on involving #China “a WTF moment”.

Frankly, I had such moment when I heard that Witkoff really believed that Moscow would agree to “Art 5-like security guarantees” for #Ukraine 🤷🏽‍♀️

www.ft.com/content/3851...
Russia says it must be included in any Ukraine security guarantees
Demand from foreign minister Sergei Lavrov would give Moscow an effective veto over efforts to defend Kyiv
www.ft.com
4
jkobzova.bsky.social
Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · Aug 18
One thing we didn’t hear from the Europeans though is the threat of more pressure on Russia if there’s no ceasefire or a deal. They explicitly mentioned such option in their post-Alaska statement on Saturday — yet no one mentioned it during the press mtg w/ Trump.
jkobzova.bsky.social
Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · Aug 18
US-Ukraine-European leaders' mtg is still ongoing, so any outcomes TBC. But Kyiv & EU already sent a clear message to both Trump & Russia: #Ukraine is not alone and Europe is serious about own responsibility for how the war ends & how security in #Europe is ensured.
1 7
jkobzova.bsky.social
Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · Aug 18
US-Ukraine-European leaders' mtg is still ongoing, so any outcomes TBC. But Kyiv & EU already sent a clear message to both Trump & Russia: #Ukraine is not alone and Europe is serious about own responsibility for how the war ends & how security in #Europe is ensured.
3 6
jkobzova.bsky.social
Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · Aug 16
Indeed but the spin Putin was projecting was that he’s treated as a leader of a superpower. Plus on nuclear, Russia kind of still is a super power. That’s not a moral judgement, just a comment on its nuclear arsenal.
1
jkobzova.bsky.social
Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · Aug 16
6/ Finally, for Russia, maybe the main goal is what I mentioned before: neutralize the US as much as possible from Ukraine, militarily and diplomatically. And in that, Putin may be slowly succeeding I am afraid. Let's see what Zelenskyy's Monday meeting w/ Trump brings.
1 8
jkobzova.bsky.social
Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · Aug 16
5/ Still, Kyiv is ready for a ceasefire - if coupled with continued military aid (ie a security guarantee against another RU attack) and no de iure concessions. Why would Putin go for such deal now isn't clear: after 3.5 yrs of full-scale war, he doesn't even control all of Ukraine's Donbas.
1 6
jkobzova.bsky.social
Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · Aug 16
4/ The key for the Europeans now is to prove him wrong by continuing mil.aid to #Ukraine & increasing pressure on Russia (using frozen assets, limiting sanctions' circumvention, etc.). This might later force a rethink in the Kremlin - Trump's red carpet and flatteries alone won't suffice.
1 7
jkobzova.bsky.social
Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · Aug 16
3/ which are: limitations on #Ukraine's sovereignty and on #NATO presence in Eastern Europe. Kyiv and rest of #Europe won't agree to that. Putin thinks that if he can't get these goals diplomatically, he's got enough bandwidth to achieve them on the battlefield.
1 8
jkobzova.bsky.social
Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · Aug 16
2/ The US & RU may have reached an understanding of an outline of a deal and put the responsibility on #Ukraine and #Europe. Zelenskyy to travel to DC on Monday. Putin's talk of 'root causes' of the war & the need to 'rebalance' European security means he's given no ground of his core demands
1 7
jkobzova.bsky.social
Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · Aug 16
post-Alaska follow-up on yday's thread: #Putin visibly content w/ red-carpet treatment & no immediate threat of #US sanctions. Trump delighted by the optics of a mtg of two superpowers. Contrast w/ how he treated Zelenskyy in the Oval Office could hardly be higher /1
jkobzova.bsky.social
Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · Aug 15
Putin's international isolation effectively ends today. But it's unlikely that he gets what he wants on #Ukraine in Alaska. Bilateral US-RU deals are possible (and likely) - yet Kyiv & the rest of Europe have a role to play. Without them, no deal is really possible.
ecfr.eu
ECFR @ecfr.eu · Aug 14
On August 15th, the American and Russian presidents will meet in Alaska to discuss the future of Ukraine without Ukrainians, or even Europeans, in the room. Quick results are still unlikely, and in any case, Europeans still have the cards to shape them, writes @jkobzova.bsky.social
🔗
2 10 20
jkobzova.bsky.social
Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · Aug 15
For Russia, the summit is ofc already a symbolic win. Whether it's also a practical win is TBC. Let's see - and watch out for the polar bears!
1 4
jkobzova.bsky.social
Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · Aug 15
That's why #Russia will emphasise bilateral ties - offering energy & economic deals so the summit seems a success for both sides. The aim is to neutralise the US from being involved in #Ukraine ("why do you bother if Ukraine is so difficult to solve & there's so much we can do together anyway").
1 2 7
jkobzova.bsky.social
Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · Aug 15
Sure, anything can happen. Trump's unpredictability is seen as weakness - but it also puts the Kremlin in a less certain position about what they can expect. Trump may impose sanctions if he's not happy with the mtg. A polar bear may come and crash the get-together. Who knows!?
1 1 4
jkobzova.bsky.social
Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · Aug 15
Putin's international isolation effectively ends today. But it's unlikely that he gets what he wants on #Ukraine in Alaska. Bilateral US-RU deals are possible (and likely) - yet Kyiv & the rest of Europe have a role to play. Without them, no deal is really possible.
ecfr.eu
ECFR @ecfr.eu · Aug 14
On August 15th, the American and Russian presidents will meet in Alaska to discuss the future of Ukraine without Ukrainians, or even Europeans, in the room. Quick results are still unlikely, and in any case, Europeans still have the cards to shape them, writes @jkobzova.bsky.social
🔗
Trump meets Putin: Why the Alaska summit is no Yalta—yet
On August 15th, the American and Russian presidents will meet in Alaska to discuss the future of Ukraine without Ukrainians, or even Europeans, in the room. Quick results are still unlikely…
bit.ly
1 4 15
jkobzova.bsky.social
Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · Jul 14
Thank you @sylviekauffmann.bsky.social !
Reposted by Jana Kobzova
ecfr.eu
ECFR @ecfr.eu · Jul 11
🎧Another week, another NEW episode of the World in 30 Minutes.

This week Mark Leonard is joined by @jkobzova.bsky.social and @camillegrand.bsky.social to discuss ECFR’s new European Security programme and the war in Ukraine.

📲Listen, share and subscribe! bit.ly/464YzJl
Beyond the battlefield: Europe’s long-term strategy for Ukraine
Mark Leonard is joined by Camille Grand and Jana Kobzova to discuss ECFR’s new European Security programme and the war in Ukraine…
bit.ly
2 2
Reposted by Jana Kobzova
ecfr.eu
ECFR @ecfr.eu · Jun 27
@nicupopescu.bsky.social is joined in conversation by Dmytro Kuleba and @jkobzova.bsky.social to discuss the new European Security Initiative #ACM25

Here are some key moments from the talk🧵🧵🧵
1 1 2