Joao Ascensao
@joaoascensao.bsky.social
490 followers 320 following 25 posts
Postdoc @ Harvard with Michael Desai | Evolutionary dynamics ocf.berkeley.edu/~joaoascensao
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Reposted by Joao Ascensao
alisonfeder.bsky.social
The constant barrage of terrible news on bluesky has made me feel weird about promoting papers, but people in the lab have been doing so much amazing work over the past few months that I want to share a few brief teasers/links:
joaoascensao.bsky.social
Oh very cool—I think I missed that paragraph in your plos bio paper! Super interesting that these effects seem to matter in both yeast and E. coli
joaoascensao.bsky.social
How common are frequency dependent fitness effects?

New preprint out today 👇
doi.org/10.1101/2025...
Frequency-dependent fitness effects are ubiquitous
In simple microbial populations, the fitness effects of most selected mutations are generally taken to be constant, independent of genotype frequency. This assumption underpins predictions about evolutionary dynamics, epistatic interactions, and the maintenance of genetic diversity in populations. Here, we systematically test this assumption using beneficial mutations from early generations of the Escherichia coli Long-Term Evolution Experiment (LTEE). Using flow cytometry-based competition assays, we find that frequency-dependent fitness effects are the norm rather than the exception, occurring in approximately 80\% of strain pairs tested. Most competitions exhibit negative frequency-dependence, where fitness advantages decline as mutant frequency increases. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the strength of frequency-dependence is predictable from invasion fitness measurements, with invasion fitness explaining approximately half of the biological variation in frequency-dependent slopes. Additionally, we observe violations of fitness transitivity in several strain combinations, indicating that competitive relationships cannot always be predicted from fitness relative to a single reference strain alone. Through high-resolution measurements of within-growth cycle dynamics, we show that simple resource competition explains a substantial portion of the frequency-dependence: when faster-growing genotypes dominate populations, they deplete shared resources more rapidly, reducing the time available for fitness differences to accumulate. Our results demonstrate that even in a simple model system designed to minimize ecological complexity, subtle ecological interactions between closely related genotypes create frequency-dependent selection that can fundamentally alter evolutionary dynamics. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest.
doi.org
Reposted by Joao Ascensao
miloj.bsky.social
I'm very excited to share something I've been working on off-and-on for a long time now: a new blog about genotype-phenotype landscapes! The first post is a Gödel-Escher-Bach-style dialogue to introduce the topic. If you like it please share/repost! open.substack.com/pub/topossib...
Reposted by Joao Ascensao
1/n 🧵 Excited to share our new paper! We developed a framework to reveal hidden simplicity in how organisms adapt to different environments, particularly focusing on antibiotic resistance evolution. #EvolutionaryBiology #MachineLearning
biorxiv-evobio.bsky.social
Learning the Shape of Evolutionary Landscapes: Geometric Deep Learning Reveals Hidden Structure in Phenotype-to-Fitness Maps https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2025.05.07.652616v1
Reposted by Joao Ascensao
ohallats.bsky.social
After a long and winding odyssey, excited to finally drop anchor in open-access waters. This preprint shows how neutral allele frequency time series can illuminate disease transmission rates between communities— key for epidemic fore- & backcasting. medrxiv.org/content/10.1... 🧵
joaoascensao.bsky.social
I view genetic drift and decoupling noise as more fundamental demographic stochastic forces, which go on to affect downstream and emergent dynamics.
joaoascensao.bsky.social
I think that is fair to say in one sense. The distinction I want to make is that genetic draft is emergent from an interplay of mutation, selection, etc. Changing population genetic parameters, including the strength of drift or decoupling noise, would also change genetic draft.
joaoascensao.bsky.social
Thread from the preprint 👇
bsky.app/profile/joao...
joaoascensao.bsky.social
Do you enjoy mysterious population stochasticity, chaotic dynamics, and/or popgen? Then this preprint might be for you!

Super excited to share a project that has been an exciting journey, and a fun blend of theory and experiment!

www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...
Asynchronous abundance fluctuations can drive giant genotype frequency fluctuations
bioRxiv - the preprint server for biology, operated by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, a research and educational institution
www.biorxiv.org
joaoascensao.bsky.social
We usually think of genetic drift as the predominant stochastic force in evolving populations. But working with some model microbial populations, we found a distinct source of demographic stochasticity that scales (and behaves) differently than drift

Learn more in our new paper 👉 rdcu.be/d07Np
Asynchronous abundance fluctuations can drive giant genotype frequency fluctuations
Nature Ecology & Evolution - Based on a combination of experiments and modelling, this study shows large stochastic fluctuations in genotype frequencies caused by intrinsic and extrinsic...
rdcu.be
joaoascensao.bsky.social
Yeah, genetic drift is dominant source of fluctuations at low frequencies, but then decoupling noise starts to dominate above frequencies ~1/(δ*N_e). So depending on the parameters, that cross-over point can be at a really low frequency. I don't know about recombination though, great question!
joaoascensao.bsky.social
If you’ve gotten this far, thanks for reading and we welcome any feedback that you might have!
joaoascensao.bsky.social
We spend a lot of time trying to measure fitness effects in evolution experiments, but comparatively little effort measuring the noise. I think that it is time to pay more attention to the fluctuations!
joaoascensao.bsky.social
When we think of evolutionarily-important stochasticity, we usually think of genetic drift. But decoupling noise is like the shy cousin of drift—largely overlooked, but an important and likely common source of randomness in the frequencies of closely related genotypes.
joaoascensao.bsky.social
Finally, we develop some new popgen theory. Some key findings: (1) Decoupling noise can significantly shift the ability of natural selection to distinguish between different fitness effects (2) Decoupling noise can leave selection-like signatures in the SFS
joaoascensao.bsky.social
Because N^2-scaling abundance fluctuations are common across populations, we also think that decoupling noise may be ubiquitous. For example, we also find signatures of decoupling noise in the barcoded yeast experiments from the Petrov and Sherlock lab
joaoascensao.bsky.social
The characteristic (Lyapunov) time is pretty fast—about 5-10 hours. So the dynamics look effectively stochastic if we’re taking samples every 24 hours. Only with these densely sampled time courses can we see the chaos.
joaoascensao.bsky.social
So what is the cause of these fluctuations?

We cultured replicates and tracked the populations over a 24 hour cycle. The replicates exponentially diverge from each other! This is the signature of chaotic dynamics—small differences between replicates are exponentially amplified
joaoascensao.bsky.social
Large frequency fluctuations may not be surprising if we were in a noisy environment. But we’re trying as hard as possible to maintain a constant environment, using closely related genotypes!
joaoascensao.bsky.social
This is similar to previous models that invoke a fluctuating environment, but we know that many other mechanisms can cause these types of abundance fluctuations (e.g. chaos, aggregation, etc.)
joaoascensao.bsky.social
But f^2-scaling frequency fluctuations don’t arise unless the abundance fluctuations are decoupled (to some degree) between the genotypes in the population. So we call these frequency fluctuations “decoupling noise”.
joaoascensao.bsky.social
How do we explain this?

We developed a flexible model that can account for the scaling behaviors. Uncorrelated offspring number fluctuations causes classical genetic drift. In contrast, correlated offspring number fluctuations cause ~N^2-scaling abundance fluctuations.
joaoascensao.bsky.social
Under classical genetic drift, the frequency variance should scale linearly with the mean. Instead, we saw a power-law relationship, with the variance scaling like the mean squared.