João Sousa
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joaosousa.bsky.social
João Sousa
@joaosousa.bsky.social
Deputy Director of @fraserofallander.org at the University of Strathclyde, formerly at the OBR. Mostly economic and fiscal policy, plus the odd rugby and football post. Views are my own, shares are not endorsements. He/him
7/ And that leads us to what might be coming down the track. The overall envelope looks pretty undeliverable if you're going to protect some of the largest departments. It's a sort of 'mañana austerity' - this scenario is not implausible given total, but would imply a damaging rollercoaster effect
June 6, 2025 at 12:04 PM
6/ And the other problem is that while it formally constrains spending, it doesn't really work as well as it seems. Look at the chart below - in every single SR period there has been significant policy in subsequent events, negating the seeming importance of this exercise
June 6, 2025 at 12:04 PM
In the other place, Government resources are being used to say that NICs weren't increased. Which is odd when the main revenue raiser was **checks notes** increasing NICs?

Highly regrettable that civil service communications are being used for this, when no sane defence can be made that it's true
November 8, 2024 at 2:53 PM