This is fantastic

8/ Full working paper with detailed analysis, information asymmetry breakdown, implementation details, and responses to objections:

www.strath.ac.uk/media/1newwe...

7/ It's pragmatic reform. Uses existing timings. No new institutions required.

But it addresses the real dysfunction exposed by the 2025 Budget process.

6/ This would:

✅ Level the playing field—everyone gets the same baseline info

✅ Enable informed public debate about fiscal choices

✅ Remove the OBR from impossible political judgments

✅ Replace 3 months of information warfare with 3 weeks of transparent discussion

5/ But what if we let the OBR publish its pre-measures forecast 3 weeks before Budget Day?

It's the same timing it currently delivers internally to the Treasury.

Then give the government 3 weeks to respond with policy measures.

4/ This isn't just about transparency. There are real economic costs:

📉 Market volatility from 3 months of selective leaks

📊 Business decisions delayed due to uncertainty

🗳️ Democratic deficit—opposition & public can't scrutinise without proper information

3/ An unmistakable pattern from August to November 2025: articles with Treasury briefing, all using the same coded language:

-"allies of the Chancellor"
-"people familiar with the matter"
-people "briefed on her thinking"

A drip-feed of selective briefings, knowing the OBR had no right of reply.

2/ In my 5 years at the OBR, I saw this repeatedly.

The OBR cannot comment before Budget Day. The Treasury can—and does—selectively brief the media to shape the narrative.

The OBR has no right of reply.

I know - it does sometimes feel like folk won't really understand why having credible plans and a significant buffer is important until a new crisis rears its head.

The £21.7bn isstill be below the average OBR forecast error that far out, and that's with some impossible tightening built in

One of my favourite things of selling my last house was the estate agent telling me about his view on the outlook for Bank Rate

I have five legal surnames (even after naturalisation, thanks Portugal 🙃) and this is maddening on every flight. Have also learned that though spaces are allowed in some, surnames are all processed without spaces in the boarding passes, with weird results for initialing due to character limits