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John Sides @johnsides.bsky.social · 1d

Much more data from @tesler.bsky.social @goodauth.bsky.social. Tells us something about the backlash to DOGE and the OBBB, I think. And buttresses Democrats' stance on extending ACA subsidies.

t.co/bs3pJYTlpi

https://goodauthority.org/news/americans-are-in-an-unusually-liberal-fiscal-policy-mood-shutdown/

t.co

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John Sides @johnsides.bsky.social · 1d

Under Biden, there was no thermostatic shift in public opinion about the size of government. The public stayed relatively liberal. Take attitudes toward the government's role in health care:

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John Sides @johnsides.bsky.social · Sep 3

A very large group is ambivalent about democracy vs. autocracy. More on this in a new piece from me @goodauth.bsky.social.

goodauthority.org/news/autocra...

Autocracy or democracy? More and more people are ambivalent.

When faced with the choice between a dictator and democracy, some people choose both.

goodauthority.org

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John Sides @johnsides.bsky.social · Sep 3

Imagine asking people two questions -- whether each of these is a good or bad way to run a govt:

1) having a democratic political system

2) having a strong leader who does not have to bother with parliament and elections

What percent says *both* are good?

44%!

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John Sides @johnsides.bsky.social · Sep 2

Finally, Scott Abramson and Sharece Thrower. "The direct cost to voters of polling site closures and consolidation." Very cool study from here in Nashville!

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

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John Sides @johnsides.bsky.social · Sep 2

Next, Cindy Kam and VU Ph.D. @amengel.bsky.social, "A racial reckoning? racial attitudes in the wake of the murder of George Floyd."

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

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John Sides @johnsides.bsky.social · Sep 2

Three new publications from Vanderbilt political science faculty! First up, Diana Lee and @yamilrvelez.bsky.social, "Measuring Descriptive Representation at Scale: Methods for Predicting the Race and Ethnicity of Public Officials."

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

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Reposted by John Sides

G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · Jul 31

thermostat go click-click-click

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Reposted by John Sides

Phil Klinkner @pklinkne.bsky.social · Jul 29

Just like in his 1st term, Trump is going to hover around 40% approval. As @johnsides.bsky.social et al point out in their 2020 election book, Trump always sides with his base rather than choose policies with broader appeal. When you only aim to satisfy 40% of the population, you get 40% approval.

YouGov America @today.yougov.com · Jul 29

A stacked bar chart of YouGov polling data with the headline: "Approval and disapproval of Trump's job performance."

The chart's sub-headline is: "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President? (%)."

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John Sides @johnsides.bsky.social · Jul 27

Some more great new research from Vandy polisci faculty!

Peter Schram in International Organization, "Conflicts that Leave Something to Chance."

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

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John Sides @johnsides.bsky.social · Jul 15

The popularity of ICE is plunging.

goodauthority.org/news/america...

ICE’s popularity is plunging.

ICE’s budget is skyrocketing, but more and more Americans view the agency unfavorably.

goodauthority.org

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John Sides @johnsides.bsky.social · Jul 4

I worked with E.J. for many years and highly recommend her for any academic looking to polish their writing and reach a larger audience!

E.J. Graff @ejgraff.bsky.social · Jun 23

Academics & researchers: Is this your summer for finishing your book or publishing that oped? Get in touch! I've got time opening up in my editorial coaching schedule. We will have fun AND will get that piece polished & published.

www.linkedin.com/in/ejgraff/

www.linkedin.com

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John Sides @johnsides.bsky.social · Jul 1

For more, see here: goodauthority.org/news/america...

Americans’ views of the opposite party have declined even further.

New data shows another increase in “affective polarization.”

goodauthority.org

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John Sides @johnsides.bsky.social · Jul 1

People also appear to raise the out-party less favorably than "out-partisans" (i.e., Ds rate the "Republican Party" less favorably than "Republicans"). Suggests that "the party" calls to mind party leaders and activists not just ordinary folks, as some research has suggested.

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John Sides @johnsides.bsky.social · Jul 1

Once you separate by mode, you get the expected finding: people express less favorable views of the out-party when they complete the survey themselves. Raises the possibility that the ANES was underestimating affective polarization because it used only face-to-face interviews for many years!

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John Sides @johnsides.bsky.social · Jul 1

Methodological point: you have to separate the later ANES studies by survey mode, because out-party feelings are cooler in the self-completed mode than in face-to-face or phone interviews. If you don't, you're conflating changes over time with changes in mode (and I've seen some people do this).

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John Sides @johnsides.bsky.social · Jul 1

In general, in-party feelings are stable. Perhaps they were higher in the 1960s, although the change the object being evaluated (e.g., from "Democrats" to "Democratic Party") makes it harder to compare.

But as we've known, out-party feelings have become cooler. 2024 only continued the trend.

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John Sides @johnsides.bsky.social · Jul 1

For @goodauth.bsky.social, I updated the affective polarization trend using the newly released 2024 ANES. Here's the graph.

A few important points...

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John Sides @johnsides.bsky.social · Jun 21

And while I'm at it, a THIRD piece in the AJPS from Vanderbilt polisci faculty came out yesterday -- this one by my colleagues @BradSmithUNC and Peter Bils:

"The Logic of Secret Alliances"

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

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John Sides @johnsides.bsky.social · Jun 21

Somehow I neglected to mention a SIXTH APSR by Vanderbilt polisci faculty. This one, by Jorge Mangonnet et al., is now out and formally forthcoming in 2026!

"Family Ties, Social Control, and Authoritarian Distribution to Elites"

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

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John Sides @johnsides.bsky.social · Jun 20

Then, finally, this *extremely* topical piece by @johnadearborn.bsky.social : “Contesting the Reach of the Rights Revolution: The Reagan Administration and the Unitary Executive”

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

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John Sides @johnsides.bsky.social · Jun 20

Erin York and Daniel Tavana have this piece in the BJPS: “Legislative Cooptation in Authoritarian Regimes: Policy Cooperation in the Kuwait National Assembly”

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

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John Sides @johnsides.bsky.social · Jun 20

And then Andres Gannon: “Complementarity in alliances: How strategic compatibility and hierarchy promote efficient cooperation in international security”

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

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John Sides @johnsides.bsky.social · Jun 20

There’s also 2 pieces in the American Journal of Political Science. Federica Izzo and colleagues are first with “Argumentation Strategies in Party Competition.”

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

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John Sides @johnsides.bsky.social · Jun 20

Then, ‪@brentonkenkel.bsky.social‬ and Kristopher Ramsay: “The Effective Power of Military Coalitions: A Unified Theoretical and Empirical Model”

www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

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