John Springford
@johnspringford.bsky.social
Economist and occasional politics dabbler. Working on a project to improve labour markets. Associate fellow, Centre for European Reform. Visiting fellow, Institute for Policy Research, Bath University.
It's obviously fair that Britain contributes to the cost of EU borrowing for Ukraine weapons if UK companies get orders under SAFE. And it's easy to calculate, contra this, just not in advance. Share of contracts times borrowing costs as the programme rolls on.
February 5, 2026 at 8:20 AM
It's obviously fair that Britain contributes to the cost of EU borrowing for Ukraine weapons if UK companies get orders under SAFE. And it's easy to calculate, contra this, just not in advance. Share of contracts times borrowing costs as the programme rolls on.
In the deal, the UK committed to extra spending on drugs by 2035 that will be the same sum as the project benefit of the EU reset (0.3% of GDP). (We don't know the extent to which this will come in the form of higher prices for US companies or extra spending that it would've done anyway.)
February 4, 2026 at 8:16 AM
In the deal, the UK committed to extra spending on drugs by 2035 that will be the same sum as the project benefit of the EU reset (0.3% of GDP). (We don't know the extent to which this will come in the form of higher prices for US companies or extra spending that it would've done anyway.)
February 3, 2026 at 1:07 PM
Jonathan surveys Brexit and immigration over the long duree. Looking forward to reading this in full.
January 29, 2026 at 9:26 AM
Jonathan surveys Brexit and immigration over the long duree. Looking forward to reading this in full.
Just ask - we speak English
January 27, 2026 at 9:14 PM
Just ask - we speak English
The problem with this @economist.com argument is that deep spending cuts are politically implausible, as @acjsissons.bsky.social set out in the last part of our essay here: getting-out-of-the-hole.uk
January 24, 2026 at 2:22 PM
The problem with this @economist.com argument is that deep spending cuts are politically implausible, as @acjsissons.bsky.social set out in the last part of our essay here: getting-out-of-the-hole.uk
Published the day after Trump and Vance's 'politics of home' impinge on James Orr's. He chooses to simply ignore the tensions in his argument.
www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
January 18, 2026 at 12:20 PM
Published the day after Trump and Vance's 'politics of home' impinge on James Orr's. He chooses to simply ignore the tensions in his argument.
www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
I'm doubtful it could be credibly automatic. On the 'constrained' process, I was thinking about the December Council conclusions that 'internal groundwork and reforms' were needed, presumably to provide more tools on rule of law, corruption etc for existing members as well as acceding ones.
January 16, 2026 at 12:35 PM
I'm doubtful it could be credibly automatic. On the 'constrained' process, I was thinking about the December Council conclusions that 'internal groundwork and reforms' were needed, presumably to provide more tools on rule of law, corruption etc for existing members as well as acceding ones.
But I think this 'fascist' vs 'narcissist' question is a distraction. Authoritarianism comes in many forms. The common factors are attempts to undermine democracy and reduce the power of the courts and legislature, and clientilism.
January 16, 2026 at 8:52 AM
But I think this 'fascist' vs 'narcissist' question is a distraction. Authoritarianism comes in many forms. The common factors are attempts to undermine democracy and reduce the power of the courts and legislature, and clientilism.
Here's my last effort. Less crispy than yours, by the look of things. Might try putting them in the oven while they're wetter.
January 13, 2026 at 2:25 PM
Here's my last effort. Less crispy than yours, by the look of things. Might try putting them in the oven while they're wetter.
Ah, overlooked did appear to be a part of it
January 12, 2026 at 2:26 PM
Ah, overlooked did appear to be a part of it
January 8, 2026 at 4:14 PM
Ed Luce, quite rightly, implies that 'running Venezuela' is not going to happen because it would require an occupation. But also - why would US companies commit to oil extraction that will probably lose them money?
January 4, 2026 at 10:23 AM
Ed Luce, quite rightly, implies that 'running Venezuela' is not going to happen because it would require an occupation. But also - why would US companies commit to oil extraction that will probably lose them money?
Surprise! Inheritance tax cuts, so he can pass his businesses to his family tax-free.
December 27, 2025 at 9:31 AM
Surprise! Inheritance tax cuts, so he can pass his businesses to his family tax-free.
What will James Dyson, who supported the euro to "save" UK manufacturing, Brexit to end EU vacuum cleaner regulations, and the replacement of EU farm subsidies to maintain his farm income, propose?
December 27, 2025 at 9:29 AM
What will James Dyson, who supported the euro to "save" UK manufacturing, Brexit to end EU vacuum cleaner regulations, and the replacement of EU farm subsidies to maintain his farm income, propose?
My piece on a Brexit settlement that might actually work, for @ukandeu.bsky.social. A lot of effort will be needed to get there, but it's encouraging that the debate is shifting.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-continui...
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-continui...
December 10, 2025 at 8:30 AM
My piece on a Brexit settlement that might actually work, for @ukandeu.bsky.social. A lot of effort will be needed to get there, but it's encouraging that the debate is shifting.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-continui...
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-continui...
Right - according to the Whitehall study, about 1ppt of the GDP costs of Brexit are down to customs, far more than gains from FTAs. Question is whether that could be recovered given the pre-existing impact on car industry and the consolidation as we shift to EVs. But there would be gains.
December 8, 2025 at 8:32 AM
Right - according to the Whitehall study, about 1ppt of the GDP costs of Brexit are down to customs, far more than gains from FTAs. Question is whether that could be recovered given the pre-existing impact on car industry and the consolidation as we shift to EVs. But there would be gains.
This is especially depressing. Perhaps there are multiple reasons why someone might want to live and work in London, and governments should try to give their citizens more freedoms?
December 6, 2025 at 5:44 PM
This is especially depressing. Perhaps there are multiple reasons why someone might want to live and work in London, and governments should try to give their citizens more freedoms?
Football is played on foot, as opposed to on horseback.
December 5, 2025 at 7:28 PM
Football is played on foot, as opposed to on horseback.
For non-EU nationals, the drop in students seems to be slowing - good news for universities. Work visas continue their precipitous fall. Less good.
November 27, 2025 at 9:45 AM
For non-EU nationals, the drop in students seems to be slowing - good news for universities. Work visas continue their precipitous fall. Less good.
But they judge that the effects of repeated shocks - financial crisis, Brexit, Covid and the energy crisis - will unwind over time, leading to a recovery of productivity growth to 1%, despite the average since 2008-9 being lower.
November 27, 2025 at 8:17 AM
But they judge that the effects of repeated shocks - financial crisis, Brexit, Covid and the energy crisis - will unwind over time, leading to a recovery of productivity growth to 1%, despite the average since 2008-9 being lower.
The most interesting OBR paper yesterday was the one that didn't leak - the justification for their productivity downgrade. There's a very important assumption in it that could make or break the government.
November 27, 2025 at 8:13 AM
The most interesting OBR paper yesterday was the one that didn't leak - the justification for their productivity downgrade. There's a very important assumption in it that could make or break the government.
Everyone, you know if you delayed dinner till after 7 pm, you could save cash? I know this is hard for people with young kids. But everyone else.
November 24, 2025 at 7:07 PM
Everyone, you know if you delayed dinner till after 7 pm, you could save cash? I know this is hard for people with young kids. But everyone else.
A movie that takes place where you're from
November 23, 2025 at 9:19 PM
A movie that takes place where you're from
"They all laughed when I said I wanted to be a comedian. Well, they're not laughing now".
November 23, 2025 at 9:51 AM
"They all laughed when I said I wanted to be a comedian. Well, they're not laughing now".