John Springford
@johnspringford.bsky.social
Economist and occasional politics dabbler. Working on a project to improve labour markets. Associate fellow, Centre for European Reform. Visiting fellow, Institute for Policy Research, Bath University.
Pinned
Getting Britain out of the hole
A plan for the UK economy
getting-out-of-the-hole.uk
New essay out today by me and @acjsissons.bsky.social - ‘Getting Britain out of the hole: a plan for the economy’. You can read the whole thing here getting-out-of-the-hole.uk
A chart mega-thread follows 🧵
A chart mega-thread follows 🧵
Reposted by John Springford
My pre-budget take for the LSE Politics blog is up:
Labour are unable to articulate any vision or sense of purpose.
Much of the left has convinced itself that government spending can be maintained without broad-based tax increases.
Not a great budget backdrop.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Labour are unable to articulate any vision or sense of purpose.
Much of the left has convinced itself that government spending can be maintained without broad-based tax increases.
Not a great budget backdrop.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Wealth tax and looser fiscal rules won’t save the Budget | British Politics and Policy at LSE
The narrative on the left that a wealth tax and looser fiscal rules would solve the Chancellor's 2025 Budget headaches has got out of hand.
blogs.lse.ac.uk
November 25, 2025 at 4:05 PM
My pre-budget take for the LSE Politics blog is up:
Labour are unable to articulate any vision or sense of purpose.
Much of the left has convinced itself that government spending can be maintained without broad-based tax increases.
Not a great budget backdrop.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Labour are unable to articulate any vision or sense of purpose.
Much of the left has convinced itself that government spending can be maintained without broad-based tax increases.
Not a great budget backdrop.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Reposted by John Springford
@cerianbond.bsky.social, former ambassador to Latvia, now deputy director of @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, tells presenterJonathan Samuel that the plan would also "very badly damage" European security.
Ukraine war latest: US holds 'secret peace talks' - as NATO country forced to scramble jets over drone attack
The US is reportedly holding secret talks between Russia and Ukraine in the United Arab Emirates, the latest in negotiations over a controversial US peace plan. Meanwhile, Romania has scrambled jets…
buff.ly
November 25, 2025 at 9:00 AM
@cerianbond.bsky.social, former ambassador to Latvia, now deputy director of @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, tells presenterJonathan Samuel that the plan would also "very badly damage" European security.
Reposted by John Springford
Wrote about this here. The "anomaly" of the divergence between hard indicators of economic performance and soft indicators of sentiment disappears once if you include higher interest rates, leading to higher mortgage and car payments, in inflation. www.economist.com/finance-and-...
November 25, 2025 at 9:24 AM
Wrote about this here. The "anomaly" of the divergence between hard indicators of economic performance and soft indicators of sentiment disappears once if you include higher interest rates, leading to higher mortgage and car payments, in inflation. www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Everyone, you know if you delayed dinner till after 7 pm, you could save cash? I know this is hard for people with young kids. But everyone else.
November 24, 2025 at 7:07 PM
Everyone, you know if you delayed dinner till after 7 pm, you could save cash? I know this is hard for people with young kids. But everyone else.
Not a surprise
November 24, 2025 at 4:56 PM
Not a surprise
Reposted by John Springford
I meant to do a thread on this but got sidetracked. So a couple of thoughts…
I often struggle to come up with tangible examples of English devolution but this is one. Greater Manchester is doing its own £1bn regeneration investment fund
on.ft.com/43InqRk
on.ft.com/43InqRk
Greater Manchester to launch £1bn public investment fund
[FREE TO READ] City region aims to capitalise on sustained economic growth with first fund of its kind
on.ft.com
November 22, 2025 at 9:01 AM
I meant to do a thread on this but got sidetracked. So a couple of thoughts…
Martin Wolf on our essay. "So, what do I hope for from Wednesday’s Budget? Some sight of a workable and coherent long-term economic strategy. I do not expect it. It may already be too late. But, without that, it is hard to be optimistic about the UK’s future."
www.ft.com/content/17e1...
www.ft.com/content/17e1...
How to get the UK out of its economic hole
Reeves’ challenge is to remedy the disaster that Brexit has been for the country
www.ft.com
November 24, 2025 at 7:10 AM
Martin Wolf on our essay. "So, what do I hope for from Wednesday’s Budget? Some sight of a workable and coherent long-term economic strategy. I do not expect it. It may already be too late. But, without that, it is hard to be optimistic about the UK’s future."
www.ft.com/content/17e1...
www.ft.com/content/17e1...
A movie that takes place where you're from
November 23, 2025 at 9:19 PM
A movie that takes place where you're from
Reposted by John Springford
Here’s this week’s column, in which I beg the chancellor to go big this week - on both headroom and narrative - so that by next year, if she’s still here to deliver it, the budget will be boring, because we all know the plan 🙏🏻
www.theguardian.com/business/202...
www.theguardian.com/business/202...
Rachel Reeves, please, let’s make budgets boring again | Heather Stewart
Budgets need to be reassuringly dull with no repeat of this year’s long, drawn-out and chaotic buildup
www.theguardian.com
November 23, 2025 at 3:49 PM
Here’s this week’s column, in which I beg the chancellor to go big this week - on both headroom and narrative - so that by next year, if she’s still here to deliver it, the budget will be boring, because we all know the plan 🙏🏻
www.theguardian.com/business/202...
www.theguardian.com/business/202...
Reposted by John Springford
Wonderful write-up by @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social on a fascinating fiery debate at CERs annual economics conference this weekend (so fast Erik!)
Should Europe use incentives to pull some of our capital exports back home rather than fund Americas deficits?
independenteconomics.substack.com
Should Europe use incentives to pull some of our capital exports back home rather than fund Americas deficits?
independenteconomics.substack.com
Sunday Wrap by Erik F. Nielsen | IndependentEconomics | Substack
I write about economics, policies and markets - trying to connect the dots. Click to read Sunday Wrap by Erik F. Nielsen, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.
independenteconomics.substack.com
November 23, 2025 at 2:03 PM
Wonderful write-up by @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social on a fascinating fiery debate at CERs annual economics conference this weekend (so fast Erik!)
Should Europe use incentives to pull some of our capital exports back home rather than fund Americas deficits?
independenteconomics.substack.com
Should Europe use incentives to pull some of our capital exports back home rather than fund Americas deficits?
independenteconomics.substack.com
On customs unions and sovereignty. I'd add that we're in new era of weaponised trade.
There's a prevailing idea in the UK that a customs union with the EU would be a compromise solution if single market membership is not possible, e.g @eddavey.libdems.org.uk and @jonathanfreedland.bsky.social recently. But a customs union is, from a trade policy, a more radical step. (1/N)
November 23, 2025 at 1:30 PM
On customs unions and sovereignty. I'd add that we're in new era of weaponised trade.
Reposted by John Springford
There's a prevailing idea in the UK that a customs union with the EU would be a compromise solution if single market membership is not possible, e.g @eddavey.libdems.org.uk and @jonathanfreedland.bsky.social recently. But a customs union is, from a trade policy, a more radical step. (1/N)
November 23, 2025 at 1:25 PM
There's a prevailing idea in the UK that a customs union with the EU would be a compromise solution if single market membership is not possible, e.g @eddavey.libdems.org.uk and @jonathanfreedland.bsky.social recently. But a customs union is, from a trade policy, a more radical step. (1/N)
This is very good, especially on the interest rate issue, which will be causing Reeves/Starmer similar problems. The UK needs more supply capacity; the investment required entails higher interest rates and/or lower consumption than we've been used to. A pinch
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/vibecessio...
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/vibecessio...
Vibecessions, Part II
Good numbers, bad feelings. Why?
paulkrugman.substack.com
November 23, 2025 at 12:11 PM
This is very good, especially on the interest rate issue, which will be causing Reeves/Starmer similar problems. The UK needs more supply capacity; the investment required entails higher interest rates and/or lower consumption than we've been used to. A pinch
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/vibecessio...
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/vibecessio...
Reposted by John Springford
"They all laughed when I said I wanted to be a comedian. Well, they're not laughing now".
November 23, 2025 at 9:51 AM
"They all laughed when I said I wanted to be a comedian. Well, they're not laughing now".
Reposted by John Springford
The pre-Budget messaging on climate policy has been so confusing.
Extra money for EV subsidies, but a pay-per-mile charge that doesn’t hit fossil fuel cars? Limiting cycle-to-work schemes?
Maybe slash fuel poverty funding, maybe cut heat pump subsidies?
It has made the industry very nervous.
Extra money for EV subsidies, but a pay-per-mile charge that doesn’t hit fossil fuel cars? Limiting cycle-to-work schemes?
Maybe slash fuel poverty funding, maybe cut heat pump subsidies?
It has made the industry very nervous.
Reeves to announce £1.5bn boost in EV subsidies amid pay-per-mile concerns
Reeves to announce £1.5bn boost in EV subsidies amid pay-per-mile concerns
Industry experts welcome extra incentives but fear a consultation on a mileage tax sends mixed messages
Drivers will be able to claim government subsidies to cut the cost of buying a new electric car until 2030 under plans to be announced by Rachel Reeves at next week’s budget.
The chancellor will unveil an extra £1.3bn for subsidies for new electric vehicles (EVs) and a further £200m for charging points, as she attempts to prevent the market for clean cars drying up amid concerns about a new pay-per-mile tax. Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com
November 23, 2025 at 8:55 AM
The pre-Budget messaging on climate policy has been so confusing.
Extra money for EV subsidies, but a pay-per-mile charge that doesn’t hit fossil fuel cars? Limiting cycle-to-work schemes?
Maybe slash fuel poverty funding, maybe cut heat pump subsidies?
It has made the industry very nervous.
Extra money for EV subsidies, but a pay-per-mile charge that doesn’t hit fossil fuel cars? Limiting cycle-to-work schemes?
Maybe slash fuel poverty funding, maybe cut heat pump subsidies?
It has made the industry very nervous.
Pretty good piece this. www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/dd4be94...
How a Polish town boomed while its British twin fell behind
Darlington’s change is sluggish compared with Gliwice’s transformations
www.telegraph.co.uk
November 23, 2025 at 8:26 AM
Pretty good piece this. www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/dd4be94...
@jonathanfreedland.bsky.social, citing our paper, says the government should seek a much more comprehensive Brexit deal. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Rachel Reeves is studiously ignoring the cause of Britain’s woes: the Brexit-shaped hole in its roof | Jonathan Freedland
The autumn budget will mop up some damage, but the true source of the economic crisis is clear. The government should now fix it – tragically, it won’t, says Guardian columnist Jonathan Freedland
www.theguardian.com
November 22, 2025 at 7:12 AM
@jonathanfreedland.bsky.social, citing our paper, says the government should seek a much more comprehensive Brexit deal. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Reposted by John Springford
Best thing the UK can do for global trade is maintain openness and focus on services strengths. Unfortunately that clashes with domestic politics with regard to immigration.
November 21, 2025 at 11:20 AM
Best thing the UK can do for global trade is maintain openness and focus on services strengths. Unfortunately that clashes with domestic politics with regard to immigration.
Reposted by John Springford
Nice try, but the UK is considered almost completely irrelevant in global trade policy. Lack ideas and expertise, wider context where maintaining connections with larger powers is the priority for growth in an increasingly coercive international order. www.politico.eu/article/uk-a...
Britain tries to reform global trade — without alienating Trump
U.K. Ambassador Kumar Iyer’s vision for WTO reform centers on shaking up the way the 30-year-old watchdog handles disputes.
www.politico.eu
November 21, 2025 at 11:17 AM
Nice try, but the UK is considered almost completely irrelevant in global trade policy. Lack ideas and expertise, wider context where maintaining connections with larger powers is the priority for growth in an increasingly coercive international order. www.politico.eu/article/uk-a...
This research is important because it corroborates what we already knew - that when comparing the UK to peer economies, it has had a big slowdown since 2016. It does so with firm-level data and finds more EU-connected firms have sizeable shortfalls in productivity and investment compared to less.
Brexit has caused almost twice as much damage to the UK economy than estimated by official forecasts, according to new paper from a group of experts including a senior Bank of England economist
Brexit Hit to UK Economy Double Official Estimate, Study Finds
Brexit has caused almost twice as much damage to the UK economy than estimated by official forecasts, according to new paper from a group of experts including a senior Bank of England economist.
bloom.bg
November 21, 2025 at 11:14 AM
This research is important because it corroborates what we already knew - that when comparing the UK to peer economies, it has had a big slowdown since 2016. It does so with firm-level data and finds more EU-connected firms have sizeable shortfalls in productivity and investment compared to less.
Reposted by John Springford
The most astonishing theatre
November 21, 2025 at 7:12 AM
The most astonishing theatre
Annoyed with myself for not tweeting upon waking - "OK, but people have said the pitches for the first two tests favour the bowlers"
November 21, 2025 at 9:17 AM
Annoyed with myself for not tweeting upon waking - "OK, but people have said the pitches for the first two tests favour the bowlers"
Remembering the hit of fear as Italians I respect immensely told me in early March that "you must lock down ASAP". While the British government said these were "populist – non-science based – measures that aren't any use" and "they're who not to follow".
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
‘Too little, too late’: damning report condemns UK’s Covid response
Report on handling of pandemic contains stinging criticism of ‘toxic and chaotic’ culture inside Boris Johnson’s No 10
www.theguardian.com
November 20, 2025 at 4:31 PM
Remembering the hit of fear as Italians I respect immensely told me in early March that "you must lock down ASAP". While the British government said these were "populist – non-science based – measures that aren't any use" and "they're who not to follow".
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
Not very well. 6/11.
November 19, 2025 at 8:32 AM
Not very well. 6/11.