John Springford
@johnspringford.bsky.social
Economist and occasional politics dabbler. Working on a project to improve labour markets. Associate fellow, Centre for European Reform. Visiting fellow, Institute for Policy Research, Bath University.
Pinned
Getting Britain out of the hole
A plan for the UK economy
getting-out-of-the-hole.uk
New essay out today by me and @acjsissons.bsky.social - ‘Getting Britain out of the hole: a plan for the economy’. You can read the whole thing here getting-out-of-the-hole.uk
A chart mega-thread follows 🧵
A chart mega-thread follows 🧵
Reposted by John Springford
Probably because of the USA, Canada and Australia becoming less welcoming and some economic recovery in Nigeria. Chinese student numbers down. Indian and Pakistani about the same. Nepalese, Nigerian and Bangladeshi student numbers up.
But numbers will fall next year with a few new restrictions.
But numbers will fall next year with a few new restrictions.
November 27, 2025 at 10:28 AM
Probably because of the USA, Canada and Australia becoming less welcoming and some economic recovery in Nigeria. Chinese student numbers down. Indian and Pakistani about the same. Nepalese, Nigerian and Bangladeshi student numbers up.
But numbers will fall next year with a few new restrictions.
But numbers will fall next year with a few new restrictions.
The government is committed to further restrictions, remember. Some big risks to other missions ... www.cer.eu/publications...
November 27, 2025 at 10:29 AM
The government is committed to further restrictions, remember. Some big risks to other missions ... www.cer.eu/publications...
Reposted by John Springford
Proud to see the Chancellor directly referencing my research (with @ruthpatrick0.bsky.social & Mary Reader) on the two-child limit.
As we wrote then "The two-child limit hasn’t discouraged poorer families from having children; it has simply made families poorer"
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
As we wrote then "The two-child limit hasn’t discouraged poorer families from having children; it has simply made families poorer"
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
November 26, 2025 at 8:21 PM
Proud to see the Chancellor directly referencing my research (with @ruthpatrick0.bsky.social & Mary Reader) on the two-child limit.
As we wrote then "The two-child limit hasn’t discouraged poorer families from having children; it has simply made families poorer"
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
As we wrote then "The two-child limit hasn’t discouraged poorer families from having children; it has simply made families poorer"
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Reposted by John Springford
The “firm-level data” is especially significant, says
@johnspringford.bsky.social of the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, who was not involved in the study, because it teases out the effect of Brexit on individual companies even after the energy price shock of 2022.
buff.ly/WkUAeyM
@johnspringford.bsky.social of the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, who was not involved in the study, because it teases out the effect of Brexit on individual companies even after the energy price shock of 2022.
buff.ly/WkUAeyM
Rachel Reeves is in a budget double bind | The Observer
Get full access to the app & website:
observer.co.uk
November 27, 2025 at 9:00 AM
The “firm-level data” is especially significant, says
@johnspringford.bsky.social of the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, who was not involved in the study, because it teases out the effect of Brexit on individual companies even after the energy price shock of 2022.
buff.ly/WkUAeyM
@johnspringford.bsky.social of the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, who was not involved in the study, because it teases out the effect of Brexit on individual companies even after the energy price shock of 2022.
buff.ly/WkUAeyM
The most interesting OBR paper yesterday was the one that didn't leak - the justification for their productivity downgrade. There's a very important assumption in it that could make or break the government.
November 27, 2025 at 8:13 AM
The most interesting OBR paper yesterday was the one that didn't leak - the justification for their productivity downgrade. There's a very important assumption in it that could make or break the government.
Reposted by John Springford
My pre-budget take for the LSE Politics blog is up:
Labour are unable to articulate any vision or sense of purpose.
Much of the left has convinced itself that government spending can be maintained without broad-based tax increases.
Not a great budget backdrop.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Labour are unable to articulate any vision or sense of purpose.
Much of the left has convinced itself that government spending can be maintained without broad-based tax increases.
Not a great budget backdrop.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Wealth tax and looser fiscal rules won’t save the Budget | British Politics and Policy at LSE
The narrative on the left that a wealth tax and looser fiscal rules would solve the Chancellor's 2025 Budget headaches has got out of hand.
blogs.lse.ac.uk
November 25, 2025 at 4:05 PM
My pre-budget take for the LSE Politics blog is up:
Labour are unable to articulate any vision or sense of purpose.
Much of the left has convinced itself that government spending can be maintained without broad-based tax increases.
Not a great budget backdrop.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Labour are unable to articulate any vision or sense of purpose.
Much of the left has convinced itself that government spending can be maintained without broad-based tax increases.
Not a great budget backdrop.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Reposted by John Springford
@cerianbond.bsky.social, former ambassador to Latvia, now deputy director of @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, tells presenterJonathan Samuel that the plan would also "very badly damage" European security.
Ukraine war latest: US holds 'secret peace talks' - as NATO country forced to scramble jets over drone attack
The US is reportedly holding secret talks between Russia and Ukraine in the United Arab Emirates, the latest in negotiations over a controversial US peace plan. Meanwhile, Romania has scrambled jets…
buff.ly
November 25, 2025 at 9:00 AM
@cerianbond.bsky.social, former ambassador to Latvia, now deputy director of @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, tells presenterJonathan Samuel that the plan would also "very badly damage" European security.
Reposted by John Springford
Wrote about this here. The "anomaly" of the divergence between hard indicators of economic performance and soft indicators of sentiment disappears once if you include higher interest rates, leading to higher mortgage and car payments, in inflation. www.economist.com/finance-and-...
November 25, 2025 at 9:24 AM
Wrote about this here. The "anomaly" of the divergence between hard indicators of economic performance and soft indicators of sentiment disappears once if you include higher interest rates, leading to higher mortgage and car payments, in inflation. www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Everyone, you know if you delayed dinner till after 7 pm, you could save cash? I know this is hard for people with young kids. But everyone else.
November 24, 2025 at 7:07 PM
Everyone, you know if you delayed dinner till after 7 pm, you could save cash? I know this is hard for people with young kids. But everyone else.
Not a surprise
November 24, 2025 at 4:56 PM
Not a surprise
Reposted by John Springford
I meant to do a thread on this but got sidetracked. So a couple of thoughts…
I often struggle to come up with tangible examples of English devolution but this is one. Greater Manchester is doing its own £1bn regeneration investment fund
on.ft.com/43InqRk
on.ft.com/43InqRk
Greater Manchester to launch £1bn public investment fund
[FREE TO READ] City region aims to capitalise on sustained economic growth with first fund of its kind
on.ft.com
November 22, 2025 at 9:01 AM
I meant to do a thread on this but got sidetracked. So a couple of thoughts…
Martin Wolf on our essay. "So, what do I hope for from Wednesday’s Budget? Some sight of a workable and coherent long-term economic strategy. I do not expect it. It may already be too late. But, without that, it is hard to be optimistic about the UK’s future."
www.ft.com/content/17e1...
www.ft.com/content/17e1...
How to get the UK out of its economic hole
Reeves’ challenge is to remedy the disaster that Brexit has been for the country
www.ft.com
November 24, 2025 at 7:10 AM
Martin Wolf on our essay. "So, what do I hope for from Wednesday’s Budget? Some sight of a workable and coherent long-term economic strategy. I do not expect it. It may already be too late. But, without that, it is hard to be optimistic about the UK’s future."
www.ft.com/content/17e1...
www.ft.com/content/17e1...
A movie that takes place where you're from
November 23, 2025 at 9:19 PM
A movie that takes place where you're from
Reposted by John Springford
Here’s this week’s column, in which I beg the chancellor to go big this week - on both headroom and narrative - so that by next year, if she’s still here to deliver it, the budget will be boring, because we all know the plan 🙏🏻
www.theguardian.com/business/202...
www.theguardian.com/business/202...
Rachel Reeves, please, let’s make budgets boring again | Heather Stewart
Budgets need to be reassuringly dull with no repeat of this year’s long, drawn-out and chaotic buildup
www.theguardian.com
November 23, 2025 at 3:49 PM
Here’s this week’s column, in which I beg the chancellor to go big this week - on both headroom and narrative - so that by next year, if she’s still here to deliver it, the budget will be boring, because we all know the plan 🙏🏻
www.theguardian.com/business/202...
www.theguardian.com/business/202...
Reposted by John Springford
Wonderful write-up by @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social on a fascinating fiery debate at CERs annual economics conference this weekend (so fast Erik!)
Should Europe use incentives to pull some of our capital exports back home rather than fund Americas deficits?
independenteconomics.substack.com
Should Europe use incentives to pull some of our capital exports back home rather than fund Americas deficits?
independenteconomics.substack.com
Sunday Wrap by Erik F. Nielsen | IndependentEconomics | Substack
I write about economics, policies and markets - trying to connect the dots. Click to read Sunday Wrap by Erik F. Nielsen, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.
independenteconomics.substack.com
November 23, 2025 at 2:03 PM
Wonderful write-up by @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social on a fascinating fiery debate at CERs annual economics conference this weekend (so fast Erik!)
Should Europe use incentives to pull some of our capital exports back home rather than fund Americas deficits?
independenteconomics.substack.com
Should Europe use incentives to pull some of our capital exports back home rather than fund Americas deficits?
independenteconomics.substack.com
On customs unions and sovereignty. I'd add that we're in new era of weaponised trade.
There's a prevailing idea in the UK that a customs union with the EU would be a compromise solution if single market membership is not possible, e.g @eddavey.libdems.org.uk and @jonathanfreedland.bsky.social recently. But a customs union is, from a trade policy, a more radical step. (1/N)
November 23, 2025 at 1:30 PM
On customs unions and sovereignty. I'd add that we're in new era of weaponised trade.
Reposted by John Springford
There's a prevailing idea in the UK that a customs union with the EU would be a compromise solution if single market membership is not possible, e.g @eddavey.libdems.org.uk and @jonathanfreedland.bsky.social recently. But a customs union is, from a trade policy, a more radical step. (1/N)
November 23, 2025 at 1:25 PM
There's a prevailing idea in the UK that a customs union with the EU would be a compromise solution if single market membership is not possible, e.g @eddavey.libdems.org.uk and @jonathanfreedland.bsky.social recently. But a customs union is, from a trade policy, a more radical step. (1/N)
This is very good, especially on the interest rate issue, which will be causing Reeves/Starmer similar problems. The UK needs more supply capacity; the investment required entails higher interest rates and/or lower consumption than we've been used to. A pinch
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/vibecessio...
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/vibecessio...
Vibecessions, Part II
Good numbers, bad feelings. Why?
paulkrugman.substack.com
November 23, 2025 at 12:11 PM
This is very good, especially on the interest rate issue, which will be causing Reeves/Starmer similar problems. The UK needs more supply capacity; the investment required entails higher interest rates and/or lower consumption than we've been used to. A pinch
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/vibecessio...
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/vibecessio...
Reposted by John Springford
"They all laughed when I said I wanted to be a comedian. Well, they're not laughing now".
November 23, 2025 at 9:51 AM
"They all laughed when I said I wanted to be a comedian. Well, they're not laughing now".
Reposted by John Springford
The pre-Budget messaging on climate policy has been so confusing.
Extra money for EV subsidies, but a pay-per-mile charge that doesn’t hit fossil fuel cars? Limiting cycle-to-work schemes?
Maybe slash fuel poverty funding, maybe cut heat pump subsidies?
It has made the industry very nervous.
Extra money for EV subsidies, but a pay-per-mile charge that doesn’t hit fossil fuel cars? Limiting cycle-to-work schemes?
Maybe slash fuel poverty funding, maybe cut heat pump subsidies?
It has made the industry very nervous.
Reeves to announce £1.5bn boost in EV subsidies amid pay-per-mile concerns
Reeves to announce £1.5bn boost in EV subsidies amid pay-per-mile concerns
Industry experts welcome extra incentives but fear a consultation on a mileage tax sends mixed messages
Drivers will be able to claim government subsidies to cut the cost of buying a new electric car until 2030 under plans to be announced by Rachel Reeves at next week’s budget.
The chancellor will unveil an extra £1.3bn for subsidies for new electric vehicles (EVs) and a further £200m for charging points, as she attempts to prevent the market for clean cars drying up amid concerns about a new pay-per-mile tax. Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com
November 23, 2025 at 8:55 AM
The pre-Budget messaging on climate policy has been so confusing.
Extra money for EV subsidies, but a pay-per-mile charge that doesn’t hit fossil fuel cars? Limiting cycle-to-work schemes?
Maybe slash fuel poverty funding, maybe cut heat pump subsidies?
It has made the industry very nervous.
Extra money for EV subsidies, but a pay-per-mile charge that doesn’t hit fossil fuel cars? Limiting cycle-to-work schemes?
Maybe slash fuel poverty funding, maybe cut heat pump subsidies?
It has made the industry very nervous.
Pretty good piece this. www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/dd4be94...
How a Polish town boomed while its British twin fell behind
Darlington’s change is sluggish compared with Gliwice’s transformations
www.telegraph.co.uk
November 23, 2025 at 8:26 AM
Pretty good piece this. www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/dd4be94...
@jonathanfreedland.bsky.social, citing our paper, says the government should seek a much more comprehensive Brexit deal. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Rachel Reeves is studiously ignoring the cause of Britain’s woes: the Brexit-shaped hole in its roof | Jonathan Freedland
The autumn budget will mop up some damage, but the true source of the economic crisis is clear. The government should now fix it – tragically, it won’t, says Guardian columnist Jonathan Freedland
www.theguardian.com
November 22, 2025 at 7:12 AM
@jonathanfreedland.bsky.social, citing our paper, says the government should seek a much more comprehensive Brexit deal. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Reposted by John Springford
Best thing the UK can do for global trade is maintain openness and focus on services strengths. Unfortunately that clashes with domestic politics with regard to immigration.
November 21, 2025 at 11:20 AM
Best thing the UK can do for global trade is maintain openness and focus on services strengths. Unfortunately that clashes with domestic politics with regard to immigration.