And they can argue that today's P/E multiples aren't directly comparable to 1929 or 1999. There are large structural differences in the economy, and a much different earnings backdrop...
December 4, 2025 at 4:15 PM
And they can argue that today's P/E multiples aren't directly comparable to 1929 or 1999. There are large structural differences in the economy, and a much different earnings backdrop...
For instance, the bulls can argue that momentum is a powerful force in markets, and that bull markets can go on for much longer than we imagine.
December 4, 2025 at 4:15 PM
For instance, the bulls can argue that momentum is a powerful force in markets, and that bull markets can go on for much longer than we imagine.
Periods of of high valuations tend to augur abysmal real excess returns over the ensuing decades.
December 4, 2025 at 4:15 PM
Periods of of high valuations tend to augur abysmal real excess returns over the ensuing decades.
Are we in a stock market bubble?
There’s a raging debate in markets about the sustainability of today’s high stock valuations, and it starts with this chart👇
Shiller P/E has a strong track record of flagging bubbles, and it's flashing red.
(link below)
There’s a raging debate in markets about the sustainability of today’s high stock valuations, and it starts with this chart👇
Shiller P/E has a strong track record of flagging bubbles, and it's flashing red.
(link below)
December 4, 2025 at 4:15 PM
Are we in a stock market bubble?
There’s a raging debate in markets about the sustainability of today’s high stock valuations, and it starts with this chart👇
Shiller P/E has a strong track record of flagging bubbles, and it's flashing red.
(link below)
There’s a raging debate in markets about the sustainability of today’s high stock valuations, and it starts with this chart👇
Shiller P/E has a strong track record of flagging bubbles, and it's flashing red.
(link below)
Folks like Stephen Miller and Matt Walsh have figured out that NYC has a lot of immigrants, and they apparently think that’s somehow bad or un-American.
"Their insinuation that this is something new is, however, ridiculous." - @byjustinfox.bsky.social
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
"Their insinuation that this is something new is, however, ridiculous." - @byjustinfox.bsky.social
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
July 7, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Folks like Stephen Miller and Matt Walsh have figured out that NYC has a lot of immigrants, and they apparently think that’s somehow bad or un-American.
"Their insinuation that this is something new is, however, ridiculous." - @byjustinfox.bsky.social
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
"Their insinuation that this is something new is, however, ridiculous." - @byjustinfox.bsky.social
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
"These are uncertain economic times. You don’t have to take my word for it. The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index says so:"
@byjustinfox.bsky.social
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
@byjustinfox.bsky.social
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
April 17, 2025 at 8:26 PM
"These are uncertain economic times. You don’t have to take my word for it. The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index says so:"
@byjustinfox.bsky.social
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
@byjustinfox.bsky.social
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
"We have two classes of forecasters: Those who don't know--and those who don't know they don't know." --John Kenneth Galbraith (h/t Howard Marks)
April 14, 2025 at 3:06 PM
"We have two classes of forecasters: Those who don't know--and those who don't know they don't know." --John Kenneth Galbraith (h/t Howard Marks)
The dollar index is now flat on the day. 👏
April 14, 2025 at 1:36 PM
The dollar index is now flat on the day. 👏
Forget stock futures, this is what matters 👇
Dollar Extends Drop to Fresh 2025 Lows as Tariff Saga Rolls On
Dollar Extends Drop to Fresh 2025 Lows as Tariff Saga Rolls On
April 14, 2025 at 1:57 AM
Forget stock futures, this is what matters 👇
Dollar Extends Drop to Fresh 2025 Lows as Tariff Saga Rolls On
Dollar Extends Drop to Fresh 2025 Lows as Tariff Saga Rolls On
April 9, 2025 at 1:19 PM
“History tells us that we lean into these periods of uncertainty” — Walmart’s Rainey
April 9, 2025 at 11:49 AM
“History tells us that we lean into these periods of uncertainty” — Walmart’s Rainey
His name-calling game is getting worse under pressure. PANICAN?
April 7, 2025 at 1:02 PM
His name-calling game is getting worse under pressure. PANICAN?
Lutnick on Face the Nation is still talking about securing critical supply chains for medicine/defense/semiconductors. Fine.
But why again are we tariffing textiles and toys?
But why again are we tariffing textiles and toys?
April 6, 2025 at 3:15 PM
Lutnick on Face the Nation is still talking about securing critical supply chains for medicine/defense/semiconductors. Fine.
But why again are we tariffing textiles and toys?
But why again are we tariffing textiles and toys?
Bessent on Meet the Press showing he's still on level 2 thinking...
April 6, 2025 at 2:32 PM
Bessent on Meet the Press showing he's still on level 2 thinking...
Bessent 2/5: Trump just wants lower 10-year yields "He is not calling for the Fed to lower rates," Bessent said on Fox Business
Trump on 4/4: "CUT INTEREST RATES, JEROME, AND STOP PLAYING POLITICS!"
Trump on 4/4: "CUT INTEREST RATES, JEROME, AND STOP PLAYING POLITICS!"
April 4, 2025 at 3:28 PM
Bessent 2/5: Trump just wants lower 10-year yields "He is not calling for the Fed to lower rates," Bessent said on Fox Business
Trump on 4/4: "CUT INTEREST RATES, JEROME, AND STOP PLAYING POLITICS!"
Trump on 4/4: "CUT INTEREST RATES, JEROME, AND STOP PLAYING POLITICS!"
Hard to see a link b/w tariff revenue and prosperity.
Peter Navarro's goal of $700b in tariff revenue "would put the US between Senegal and Mongolia" in terms of customs revenue relative to GDP - @byjustinfox.bsky.social
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Peter Navarro's goal of $700b in tariff revenue "would put the US between Senegal and Mongolia" in terms of customs revenue relative to GDP - @byjustinfox.bsky.social
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
April 2, 2025 at 1:05 PM
Hard to see a link b/w tariff revenue and prosperity.
Peter Navarro's goal of $700b in tariff revenue "would put the US between Senegal and Mongolia" in terms of customs revenue relative to GDP - @byjustinfox.bsky.social
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Peter Navarro's goal of $700b in tariff revenue "would put the US between Senegal and Mongolia" in terms of customs revenue relative to GDP - @byjustinfox.bsky.social
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Navarro says tariffs will raise $700b a year, which would be 2.4% of GDP.
"Tariff revenue hasn’t surpassed 2% of GDP since the early 1870s, and hasn’t surpassed it on a sustained basis since the 1820s and 1830s." @byjustinfox.bsky.social
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
"Tariff revenue hasn’t surpassed 2% of GDP since the early 1870s, and hasn’t surpassed it on a sustained basis since the 1820s and 1830s." @byjustinfox.bsky.social
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
April 2, 2025 at 12:58 PM
Navarro says tariffs will raise $700b a year, which would be 2.4% of GDP.
"Tariff revenue hasn’t surpassed 2% of GDP since the early 1870s, and hasn’t surpassed it on a sustained basis since the 1820s and 1830s." @byjustinfox.bsky.social
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
"Tariff revenue hasn’t surpassed 2% of GDP since the early 1870s, and hasn’t surpassed it on a sustained basis since the 1820s and 1830s." @byjustinfox.bsky.social
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
March 30, 2025 at 9:14 PM
"Extreme angst over trade has had substantially no impact on stocks" @johnauthers.bsky.social
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
March 28, 2025 at 11:44 AM
"Extreme angst over trade has had substantially no impact on stocks" @johnauthers.bsky.social
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
"...nothing could have prepared us for the breadth or intensity of the assault on climate action that Trump has unleashed during his first months back in office."
Eye-opening graphics from @markgongloff.bsky.social & Elaine He
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/feat...
Eye-opening graphics from @markgongloff.bsky.social & Elaine He
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/feat...
March 26, 2025 at 1:02 PM
"...nothing could have prepared us for the breadth or intensity of the assault on climate action that Trump has unleashed during his first months back in office."
Eye-opening graphics from @markgongloff.bsky.social & Elaine He
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/feat...
Eye-opening graphics from @markgongloff.bsky.social & Elaine He
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/feat...
Feels like ages since I had a reason to look at Value-to-Fear (ratio of S&P 500 forward P/E to VIX), but here it is:
It's down from nosebleed levels in December, but it's hardly screaming "the bottom is in" 🤷♂️
It's down from nosebleed levels in December, but it's hardly screaming "the bottom is in" 🤷♂️
March 18, 2025 at 3:42 PM
Feels like ages since I had a reason to look at Value-to-Fear (ratio of S&P 500 forward P/E to VIX), but here it is:
It's down from nosebleed levels in December, but it's hardly screaming "the bottom is in" 🤷♂️
It's down from nosebleed levels in December, but it's hardly screaming "the bottom is in" 🤷♂️
Mainstream media is the backbone of X's "Community Notes"
Eye-opening dataviz column from @davelee.me
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/feat...
Eye-opening dataviz column from @davelee.me
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/feat...
March 18, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Mainstream media is the backbone of X's "Community Notes"
Eye-opening dataviz column from @davelee.me
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/feat...
Eye-opening dataviz column from @davelee.me
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/feat...
Chicago Fed’s -0.8% m/m on retail ex-auto would come out to -0.9% adjusting for inflation.
March 17, 2025 at 11:27 AM
Chicago Fed’s -0.8% m/m on retail ex-auto would come out to -0.9% adjusting for inflation.
It's Retail Sales Day!
Tension today between the Chicago Fed tracker and the Bloomberg economist survey 🤔
Bloomberg survey: +0.6% m/m and +0.3% ex-auto
Chicago Fed CARTS: -0.8% m/m ex-auto
www.chicagofed.org/research/dat...
Tension today between the Chicago Fed tracker and the Bloomberg economist survey 🤔
Bloomberg survey: +0.6% m/m and +0.3% ex-auto
Chicago Fed CARTS: -0.8% m/m ex-auto
www.chicagofed.org/research/dat...
March 17, 2025 at 11:27 AM
It's Retail Sales Day!
Tension today between the Chicago Fed tracker and the Bloomberg economist survey 🤔
Bloomberg survey: +0.6% m/m and +0.3% ex-auto
Chicago Fed CARTS: -0.8% m/m ex-auto
www.chicagofed.org/research/dat...
Tension today between the Chicago Fed tracker and the Bloomberg economist survey 🤔
Bloomberg survey: +0.6% m/m and +0.3% ex-auto
Chicago Fed CARTS: -0.8% m/m ex-auto
www.chicagofed.org/research/dat...