The best course of action is to exercise some humility, understand all sides of the debate and realize no one has all the answers.

www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...

Wherever you fall, sitting out the debate isn't an option. This is the most important market question of our time, and risks abound for bulls and bears alike.

And they can argue that today's P/E multiples aren't directly comparable to 1929 or 1999. There are large structural differences in the economy, and a much different earnings backdrop...

They can also quote from the gospel of Peter Lynch, who said:

“Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in all the corrections combined.”

For instance, the bulls can argue that momentum is a powerful force in markets, and that bull markets can go on for much longer than we imagine.

But the simple interpretation isn't the only one, and it's important to understand all sides of this important valuation debate. That's why
@taylortyson.bsky.social and I sought to document the bearish/bullish interpretations of a series of key charts/factoids...

www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...

Periods of of high valuations tend to augur abysmal real excess returns over the ensuing decades.

"Without immigration... New York would not be New York,”
@byjustinfox.bsky.social
continues.

"The city’s most troubled era in living memory, and possibly ever, came after immigrants fell to just 18.2% of the population in 1970."

The Fiscal Tantrum is about to meet the Tariff Tantrum