Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Joop Adema

@jopieboy.bsky.social

300 followers 940 following 28 posts

Post-doc @ University of Innsbruck -- https://jopieadema.github.io/

jopieadema.github.io

Posts Media Videos Starter Packs

Reposted by Joop Adema

Economists for Ukraine @econ4ua.bsky.social · 1d

📊Working Paper No. 7: “What Drives Refugees’ Return After Conflict?”

Survey of 2,500+ Ukrainian refugees across 30 European countries: territorial integrity and security guarantees are key to return.

Read: econ4ua.org/wp-content/u...

Submit research: lnkd.in/gf2nQ5WC

Reposted by Joop Adema

CESifo @cesifo.org · 14d

📣New Working Paper
“What Drives Refugees' Return After Conflict?”
✒️ @jopieboy.bsky.social @lchargaziia.bsky.social Yvonne Giesing, Sarah Necker & Panu Poutvaara

Insights into how conflict resolution, security, economics, and corruption influence return decisions.
🔗 www.ifo.de/en/cesifo/pu...

Reposted by Joop Adema

ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin @rfberlin.bsky.social · Sep 5

🆕 RFBerlin Discussion Paper: @jopieboy.bsky.social, @lchargaziia.bsky.social, Yvonne Giesing, Sarah Necker, and Panu Poutvaara examine the determinants of Ukrainian refugees' return intentions post-conflict. www.rfberlin.com/network-pape...

Joop Adema @jopieboy.bsky.social · Aug 18

(11/10) PPL who’d be interested:
@plvezina.bsky.social @rlandersoe.bsky.social @mclem.org @ffasani.bsky.social @tomfratti.bsky.social @andreassteinmayr.net

Joop Adema @jopieboy.bsky.social · Aug 18

(10/10) This is not our last study of Ukrainian refugees: we observationally study the effect of conflict on mobility, future plans and integration www.ifo.de/cesifo/publi... (update soon!) and experimentally macro-level drivers of return to Ukraine (paper soon!).

Joop Adema @jopieboy.bsky.social · Aug 18

(9/10) Based on our estimates, we can calculate a migration elasticity w.r.t. social and child benefits of about 0.11 (and 0.67 w.r.t. wages). This is in line with most of the literature, except Agersnap et al. (2020, AERI). See my concern about that paper here: Joop Adema: bsky.app/profile/jopi...

Joop Adema @jopieboy.bsky.social · Jun 18

🧵Replication: Can refugee flows be lowered by reducing welfare? Agersnap et al. (2020, AER:I) study this in Denmark, reporting lower benefits strongly reduce migration flows. I reanalyze this paper, finding a much more nuanced result.

Joop Adema @jopieboy.bsky.social · Aug 18

(7/10) Heterogeneities: Men prefer to be further away; women strongly prefer networks. Those planning to return prefer to be closer to Ukraine, have a weaker preference for economic opportunities and a somewhat stronger preference for social assistance.

Joop Adema @jopieboy.bsky.social · Aug 18

(6/10) We also find that distance from Ukraine matters very little; the presence of many Ukrainian refugees in nearby countries is thus not driven by geographic proximity, but rather by the presence of networks, linguistic similarity and the availability of job opportunities.

Joop Adema @jopieboy.bsky.social · Aug 18

(5/10) Our main results indicate that work opportunities and wages are the prime determinants of destination choice; networks and knowing the language also play a large role. Social and child benefits are considerably less important.

Joop Adema @jopieboy.bsky.social · Aug 18

(4/n) We include 8 relevant factors for destination choice based on prior literature and relevance for the Ukrainian refugee situation. We express monetary dimensions in terms one standard deviation across European destinations (population-weighted).

Joop Adema @jopieboy.bsky.social · Aug 18

(3/10) We fielded surveys among >3000 Ukrainian refugees in late 2023; Survey I recruited respondents over Facebook across Europe and Survey II targeted a representative sample of refugees in DE. We run a conjoint experiment where refugees to choose between two hypothetical countries.

Joop Adema @jopieboy.bsky.social · Aug 18

(2/10) Studying the drivers of refugee movements is often hard to study observationally: (1) country traits are often correlated and (2) mobility is often restricted. Ukrainians are different w.r.t (2): they could freely choose which EU+ country to apply for protection + direct labor market access.

Joop Adema @jopieboy.bsky.social · Aug 18

(1/10) New paper at PNAS: what predicts Ukrainian refugees’ destination choice? We experimentally study the drivers of location choice in a conjoint design: we find that job opportunities, wages and networks are most important, much more so than welfare benefits.

Reposted by Joop Adema

Ian Hussey @ianhussey.mmmdata.io · Jul 5

I am often told that public critique of published articles must also solve the issues found. I think this frequently enforced requirement hinders scientific self-correction.

Blog post:

mmmdata.io/posts/2025/0...

Joop Adema @jopieboy.bsky.social · Jul 1

Although we believe this is the right conclusion, the note does not mention our comment or why the original results were "incorrect and not supported by the data".

Joop Adema @jopieboy.bsky.social · Jul 1

Update #2, RETRACTED: 15 months after we (w @ollefolke.bsky.social and @johannarickne.bsky.social ) submitted the initial comment to the Journal, we've noticed the paper was ultimately retracted. Retraction note here: link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Reposted by Joop Adema

Johanna Rickne @johannarickne.bsky.social · Jun 24

📣 Submit your paper to the Leibniz Open Science Day! I will be there to talk about our recent experience with replicating Ciacci (2024) about impacts of the Swedish legislation that banned sex purchases. Call for papers: www.zbw.eu/de/ueber-uns...

Reposted by Joop Adema

CESifo @cesifo.org · Jun 25

A warm welcome to @jopieboy.bsky.social ‪! 🌟 ‬‬
Thrilled to have him in the network! He researches labor economics and political economy of international migration.📊

🔍 His research: jopieadema.github.io
🔗 www.ifo.de/en/cesifo/ne...

Reposted by Joop Adema

CESifo @cesifo.org · Jun 12

📣Call for papers: 𝗖𝗘𝗠𝗜𝗥 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗶𝗼𝗿 𝗘𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗸𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗽 𝗼𝗻 𝗠𝗶𝗴𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵, 28 - 29 October 2025, Munich

Keynote Speaker: Jens Hainmueller (Stanford)

ℹ️ www.ifo.de/en/event/202...

👉 Submit by 30 June: app.oxfordabstracts.com/stages/78037...

@sebastianschirner.bsky.social @econmunich.bsky.social

Joop Adema @jopieboy.bsky.social · Jun 18

My comment+code can be found here: jopieadema.github.io/replication/. It was desk rejected by AER:I on the grounds of not "meeting the high bar needed to justify publishing a comment" while acknowledging it's a "significant nuance to our understanding". I leave judgement to the reader.

Joop Adema @jopieboy.bsky.social · Jun 18

Taking AJKs study at face value, it has large implications for policy makers: they can steer (refugee) migration by tuning benefits. My comment shows that these concerns are largely unwarranted. However, benefit cuts worsen outcomes of refugee children: shorturl.at/iMtTo

Joop Adema @jopieboy.bsky.social · Jun 18

Another prediction of the welfare magnet hypothesis is that benefit cuts also predict an increase in the skill level of migrants. Using the EU LFS I find that lower benefits do NOT lower the skill levels of newly arriving migrants.

Joop Adema @jopieboy.bsky.social · Jun 18

I re-analyze the case using an origin-specific approach, finding much smaller max. elasticity estimates: only 0.14 for stocks, 0.28 for inflows and 0.77 for asylum applications. However, the variability of refugee flows (esp. the 2015/2016 crisis) makes these estimates imprecise.

Joop Adema @jopieboy.bsky.social · Jun 18

Beyond these concerns, there are many simultaneous policy changes, that typically become more restrictive when benefits decrease. Hence, any estimates from these reforms can only identifiy an UPPER bound of the effects of benefit changes.

Joop Adema @jopieboy.bsky.social · Jun 18

e.g. DK received overproportionally many asylum seekers from Syria and Afghanistan in 2001, but total asylum flows from these countries to Europe decreased simultaneously with benefit cuts in 2002. I account for origin-specific shocks in my re-analysis below.