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Jordan Nafa

@jordannafa.bsky.social

1.3K followers 310 following 2.1K posts

Bayesian Statistician and Data Scientist in the Gaming/Entertainment Industry | Bayesian Statistics, Causal Inference, R, Python, Stan, Decision Theory, Guitar | Former Political Scientist

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Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · Aug 20

Are you interested in Bayesian Optimization? Do you think multi-arm bandits are cool? Do you like donating to good causes? We'll, I'm super excited to say I'll be hosting a charity workshop on Bayesian Optimization with Multi-Arm Bandits on October 23rd.

sites.google.com/view/dariia-...

Dariia Mykhailyshyna - Workshops for Ukraine

Feedback on the past workshops (if you want to learn how to make wordclouds, check out Text Data Analysis workshop below)

sites.google.com

Reposted by Jordan Nafa

Andy Craig @andycraig.bsky.social · 6h

Like, "Donald Trump is disqualified by the 14th Amendment" isn't a crazy fringe position when 232 members of the House and 57 members of the Senate explicitly voted yes to that assertion.

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 6h

The fact that Democrats are wholesale refusing to condition any deal to fund the government on the removal of NG forces from American cities should be the scandal of the century.

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 6h

We haven't crossed that second bar, but if were going to the early warning signs would look a lot like what we're currently seeing in terms of the use of the legal system to harrass and prosecute critics of the regime and the deployment of armed military personnel into opposition-controlled cities.

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 6h

Once you've crossed into the latter category, there aren't a lot of cases of getting out of it without some kind of violent revolt that topples the regime. So if you cross that second bar, there just aren't a lot of options that aren't "time to start shooting back."

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 6h

Logically, a government may be illegitimate (i.e., extremely corrupt, disregard for rule of law or selective enforcement) without resorting to the violent suppression of dissent (i.e., forced disappearances, extreme brutality against dissidents).

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 8h

a man wearing sunglasses and a leather jacket is talking about scientists .

ALT: a man wearing sunglasses and a leather jacket is talking about scientists .

media.tenor.com

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 8h

This would also work as the name of general contractor

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 8h

Pitch: A general purpose software engineering and data science/statistics consultancy called 𝘋𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘵 𝘙𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘍𝘪𝘳𝘴𝘵 𝘛𝘪𝘮𝘦.

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 8h

In contrast, the business model here would be 𝘋𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘵 𝘙𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘍𝘪𝘳𝘴𝘵 𝘛𝘪𝘮𝘦 and getting recurring customers (or getting aquired) because who else is going to do it right the first time 🤷‍♂️

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 8h

Ignore the fact that this is in some ways antithetical to the idea of a consultancy since the goal is often to extract as much money as possible from the client while also creating a mountain of tech debt you then try to get them to pay you to resolve.

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 8h

Pitch: A general purpose software engineering and data science/statistics consultancy called 𝘋𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘵 𝘙𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘍𝘪𝘳𝘴𝘵 𝘛𝘪𝘮𝘦.

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 11h

Bayesian Utilitarianism: Acting in a manner that infuriates as many people as possible

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 12h

You want type 1 "error control"? Slap a weakly informative prior on it and throw HMC at it. Saying "Bayesian models are only for xyz" is just saying "I'm too lazy to do Bayesian estimation in cases a-w"

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 12h

I haven't touched frequentist statistics in the better part of a decade because the only reason to prefer a closed form solution to an optimization problem is because HMC isn't scalable for a specific use case.

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 12h

When the people in power don't give a shit about democracy and rule of law, you're pretty much fucked. Who needs enemies when you have so-called allies like this 🤦‍♂️

Eric Michael Garcia @ericmgarcia.bsky.social · 15h

Durbin on whether Democrats can use reining in ICE in Chicago as a precondition to rein in the government says “can’t do that. It’s gotta be health care all the way.”

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 12h

When it comes to authoritarians, you need to either rise to the occasion and stop them before they consolidate power or you eventually depose them via much, much more violent means. If the goal is to avoid political violence, Democrats' current strategy does the exact opposite of that.

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 12h

This raises the question of at what point decorum gets cast aside. Would Democrats call a rigged election a rigged election? If Trump's DOJ starts indicting people who criticize him on baseless charges will Democrats rightly and vocally call him and his supporters traitors?

Stan Oklobdzija @stano.bsky.social · 13h

Trump is clearly a dictator and the U.S. lapsed into authoritarianism some months ago. But to call Trump and Trumpism what it obviously is shatters the illusion of political normalcy and increases the likelihood of political violence. This is why Dems sound so off right now.

Tammy Duckworth @duckworth.senate.gov · 13h

Trump is moving us closer to authoritarianism with each deployment of troops into states.

From Illinois to Oregon to California—

None of our states asked for this, nor need this.

I and every U.S. Senator from these states are demanding Trump to end these deployments ASAP.

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 1d

Honestly, I feel like its better that I go through the remainder of my life never knowing what on earth "sharpiegate" was

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 1d

The lesson is just because a refrigerator will fit in your kitchen doesn't mean it will fit through your front door

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 1d

Apparently Best Buy's delivery people will take your whole front door off and put it back on, but if there's a storm door they'll remove that but they won't reattach it afterwards. So I had to send it back with them and go buy the counter depth version that will fit through my front door 😮‍💨

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 1d

Pro-tip: Measure the width of your front door before you buy appliances. Learned this lesson the hard way 😮‍💨

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 2d

This definitely feels like an illegal use of government funds. Can you imagine if Obama had done this in 2013? Republicans would have lost their shit.

www.whitehouse.gov/government-s...

Government Shutdown Clock

Track the imminent government shutdown as Democrats' demands risk federal services for millions. Americans don’t agree with Democrats’ actions.

www.whitehouse.gov

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 2d

Supreme Court justices are not impartial arbiters of the law and constitution. They are rational political actors maximizing a subjective utility function

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 2d

If there's anything the past few years have illustrated beyond any doubt, it's that the political science view of the Supreme Court is an accurate reflection of reality and the view of the Supreme Court from the field of law is utter fantasy.

Ned Resnikoff @resnikoff.bsky.social · 2d

Not All Lawyers, but I have noticed that a certain type of (often quite successful) lawyer is incapable of imagining politics outside the boundaries set by the system in which they’ve excelled. I’m not surprised they’re surprised.

Mary Dudziak @marydudziak.bsky.social · 2d

Has Trump’s second term posed a greater or lesser threat to the rule of law than you expected? @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/06/m...

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 2d

In an ideal world, no one would ever need to be shamed into doing the right thing or behaving in a manner that isn't anti-social. Alas, the world is far from perfect 😮‍💨

Jordan Nafa @jordannafa.bsky.social · 3d

This almost makes you feel bad for the DOJ lawyers lol. Almost.

Anna Bower @annabower.bsky.social · 3d

Immergut: You're an officer of the court. Do you believe this is appropriate way to deal with my order?

Hamilton: I'm not a policy maker

Immergut: You're a lawyer

In response, Hamilton basically argues no geographic limit to federalization of CA guard...