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Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 2d

This paper provides more context: www.urban.org/research/pub...
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The Social Security Administration (SSA) is preparing a proposed rule that could significantly reshape how disability eligibility is determined for two major…

www.urban.org

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Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 2d

The Wa Post has issued an important story on an upcoming major SSA disability regulation that would especially affect older disabled workers: www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
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Trump plan would limit disability benefits for older Americans

Trump administration officials are considering eliminating age as a factor in deciding whether someone is capable of working.

www.washingtonpost.com

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Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 19d

9/ Policymakers, advocates, and researchers should pay close attention. The rule is likely to have profound policy and human consequences and could reshape disability policy for years to come.

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Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 19d

8/ Many denied older workers may turn to early retirement benefits—cutting lifetime retirement income by up to 30%.

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Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 19d

7/ In a hypothetical 10% cut scenario, 📉 500,000 people could lose access by the end of 10 years, as well as 80,000 widows and children and another 250,000 who lose eligibility for part of the period. $82B in reduced benefits and ripple effects on Medicare & Medicaid

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Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 19d

6/ The impact could be huge: 📉 Up to 20% fewer SSDI applicants could qualify and up to 30% fewer older workers could qualify

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Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 19d

5/ SSA is also reconsidering how age, education, and work experience factor into disability decisions. This could disproportionately impact older workers.

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Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 19d

4/ BUT implementation matters. SSA must decide how to interpret ORS data—like whether enough jobs exist at certain skill levels. Policy direction on this will determine if people gain or lose eligibility.

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Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 19d

3/ SSA plans to replace the Dictionary of Occupational Titles with the Occupational Requirements Survey from BLS. This modernizes the data and has bipartisan support.

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Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 19d

2/ The rule has 3 major components: 🔹 Replacing outdated job data 🔹 Implementing new occupational data 🔹 Changing how age (and other factors) affect eligibility.

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Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 19d

1/ SSA’s proposed rule could reduce disability benefit eligibility for hundreds of thousands of Americans—especially older workers. This makes it a Social Security retirement issue too.

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Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 19d

🧵 Big changes may be coming to disability benefits. The Social Security Administration (SSA) is preparing a rule that could reshape how eligibility is determined for SSDI and SSI. Here’s what you need to know—and why it matters. www.urban.org/research/pub...

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Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 25d

SSA needs to study these developments and analyze claim decisions. The changes may well be explainable but SSA has yet to acknowledge the issue. And SSA is operating with far fewer staff who have responsibility to analyze and improve the programs.

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Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 25d

3rd, Disability adjudicators are more productive, as expected. SSA experienced very high turnover among adjudicators after the pandemic. SSA estimated a temporary 20% drop in productivity as new staff are trained. This underscores the importance of retaining government staff.

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Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 25d

2nd, SSA is denying more initial claims. Even as initial decisions have increased by 159,000 for the fiscal year the number of approved claims is flat at about 812,000 with the average approval rate dropping from 38.3% to 36.0%.

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Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 25d

1st, New applications for disability benefits are down by 7% this fiscal year (-163,000). While not unusual, this development is concerning if it is in response to very long waits for eligibility decisions and other factors discouraging claims.

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Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · 25d

The Administration has taken credit for a substantial drop in the Social Security disability claims backlog. In this piece I explore the concerning factors behind this drop, including fewer new applications and more denials. www.urban.org/urban-wire/s...

The SSA Says It’s Reduced the Disability Claims Backlog. Fewer New Claims and a Higher Denial Rate Could Be Driving the Reduction

To better understand what’s driving a decrease in claims and increase in denials, the Social Security Administration could invest more in the research and st…

www.urban.org

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Reposted by Jack Smalligan

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · Sep 6

My new op-ed!

“The pocket rescission is just a beacon meant to draw our attention. Trump wants us to focus on the foreign aid impoundments — a shiny object he’s illegally deleting via a pocket rescission — so that we forget about the quiet impoundments of cancer research and preschool funding.”

Why a judge shut down Trump's latest budget stunt

A president can’t sign something into law and then immediately ignore parts of it. But that’s exactly what Trump is doing.

www.msnbc.com

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Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · Aug 15

See Kathleen Romig's great thread on yesterday's WH Social Security press release.

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Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · Jun 30

Important contrast.

Kathleen Romig @kathleenromig.bsky.social · Jun 30

Pssst . . . it costs about the same amount to shore up Social Security's finances as it does to make the Trump tax cuts permanent.

But Congressional Republicans are on the verge of shoveling trillions at the wealthiest, while leaving a shortfall in the program we ALL need and love.

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Reposted by Jack Smalligan

Brendan Duke @brendanvduke.bsky.social · Jun 18

People have been debating and worried about the Social Security Trust Fund shortfall for decades. It's widely seen as an enormous fiscal challenge.

One Big Beautiful Bill's tax cuts' permanent cost is actually *larger* than the Social Security Trust Fund shortfall.

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Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · Jun 5

Janet was at Treasury and I was at OMB when the Bush Administration tested this policy. The evaluation of the test showed high proportions of eligibles were deterred from applying and high administrative costs for IRS. Including this policy in reconciliation is a travesty.

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Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · Jun 5

The House reconciliation bill includes a provision that could keep many thousands of individuals from receiving EITC. This little noticed provision requires IRS to precertify millions of individuals for EITC. See this piece from Janet Holtzblatt. taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/one-b...

One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s EITC Precertification Requirement Could Delay Refunds

With precertification, many eligible taxpayers would have to wait longer for their EITC, causing financial hardships in the meantime--if they get it all.

taxpolicycenter.org

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Reposted by Jack Smalligan

Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · Jun 3

The rescissions request is out. This is very real. As with reconciliation, this is filibuster-proof, meaning that there is no Senate cloture vote, and Republicans can pass it even with all Dems opposed.

The White House is calling to cut global health programs, condemning people to die.

PROPOSED RESCISSION OF BUDGET AUTHORITY
Report Pursuant to Section 1012 of the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control
Act of 1974 (2 U.S.C. 683)
Agency: DEPARTMENT OF STATE
Bureau: Other
Account: Global Health Programs (019-1031 2025/2026)
Amount proposed for rescission: $500,000,000
Justification:
This proposal would rescind $500 million of the $4 billion appropriated in FY 2025 for Global
Health Programs for the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which funds
activities related to child and maternal health, HIV/AIDS, and infectious diseases. This proposal
would not reduce treatment but would eliminate programs that are antithetical to American
interests and worsen the lives of women and children, like "family planning" and "reproductive
health," LGBTQI+ activities, and "equity" programs. This rescission proposal aligns with the
Administration's efforts to eliminate wasteful USAID foreign assistance programs. Enacting
the rescission would reinstate focus, on appropriate health and life spending. This best serves the
American taxpayer.

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Jack Smalligan @jsmalligan.bsky.social · May 24

A great thread.

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