Joseph Cotterill
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Joseph Cotterill
@jsphctrl.ft.com
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Emerging Markets correspondent at the Financial Times.
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Saturday afternoon in Caracas: www.ft.com/content/a0e1...
Arturo Sosa, a retiree shopping for bread at a local bakery on Saturday afternoon, said that the US now "has what it wanted" with Maduro out of the picture, and that "Delcy should take over and call elections" Most shops remained closed throughout the day; a few people ventured outside to jog or run errands, while others stayed glued to their screens for updates over what had happened and who was running their country. Any celebrations by the Maduro regime's many critics took place at home, likely to have been deterred by the visible security presence on the streets.
January 4, 2026 at 11:48 AM
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Isn't this a chart of beauty? India's RRP Semiconductor Ltd, the world's best-performing billion dollar-plus stock, which as Bloomberg notes, has a promoter-dominated float, exchange trading restrictions, tenuous links to semiconductors, and regulatory interest. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Stock chart of the 5,881% YTD gain in RRP Semiconductor Limited. It's smoothly, absurdly, parabolic before ticking down since November.
December 18, 2025 at 11:41 AM
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The US using undocumented workers to process the only refugees it lets in now (over a fake ‘genocide’) while issuing African visa bans left, right and centre??

How ironic.
Excerpt from South African Dept of Home Affairs statement: The operation reinforces Home Affairs' commitment to enforcing the rule of law without fear or favour, as no person or entity is above these laws. It also showcases the commitment that South Africa shares with the United States to combating illegal immigration and visa abuse in all its forms. The presence of foreign officials apparently coordinating with undocumented workers naturally raises serious questions about intent and diplomatic protocol. The Department of International Relations and Cooperation has initiated formal diplomatic engagements with both the United States and Kenya to resolve this matter.
December 17, 2025 at 8:47 AM
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Looks like they weren’t training the delusions of grandeur on data past 1971 in this instance www.ft.com/content/a6a8...
Chris Lehane, OpenAI's chief global affairs officer, likened OpenAI for Countries to the creation of the modern monetary system. "We are in a Bretton Woods moment," said Lehane. "In 1944, democratic nations came together to create a financial system based on democratic values. We're now at a similar moment with the laying of the Al rails."
December 16, 2025 at 5:50 PM
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I’m reading Dashiell Hammett and the grittiest, hardest-boiled, most cynical parts for me are the old-school paper bonds that appear as plot devices. Upper Austria 6 ½s! (From ‘The Thin Man’, set in late 1932, which would explain the prices)
truth. "That's a thought," I said. The door-bell rang before I could go on. Mimi let the doctor in - he was a roly-poly elderly man with a stoop and a waddle - and took him in to Gilbert. I opened the table-drawer again and looked at the bonds, Postal Telegraph & Cable ss, Sao Paulo City 6½s, American Type Founders 6s, Certain-teed Products s½s, Upper Austria 6½s, United Drugs 5S, Philippine Railway 4s, Tokio Electric Lighting 6s, about sixty thousand dollars at face value, I judged, and - guessing - between a quarter and a third of that at the market. When the door-bell rang I shut the drawer and let Macaulay in. He looked tired. He sat down without taking off his overcoat and said: "Well, tell me the worst. What was he up to here?"
December 8, 2025 at 2:50 PM
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Lebanon's gold reserves are now valued larger than its GDP, BofA notes. Up from below $14bn or 25% of GDP in 2019 before Lebanon's default and banking collapse, to $38bn, or 113% of GDP, which went down as gold prices went up. (BofA chart)
BofA bar chart of changes in gold reserves of countries across EEMEA from 2023 to 2025, as well as changes in reserve assets as a % of GDP “Exhibit 16: Lebanon is the only EEMEA country where gold holdings now exceed 100% of GDP due to GDP collapse and gold rally”
December 3, 2025 at 11:23 AM
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Just noticed it was confirmed that Wang Chuanfu and Stella Li of BYD have been in a romantic relationship (for, clearly, quite some time) in probably the glitziest way possible... a Tatler report on their daughter's debut at Le Bal des Débutantes. www.tatler.com/article/le-b...
Alice Wang Specialising in visual arts in her psychology degree at the esteemed Columbia University, Alice Wang is as busy as they come – she's also involved in environmental initiatives and the faculty's hip-hop group. She attended Le Bal this year wearing a stunning gown by Vera Wang, along with her parents: Chuanfu Wang, founder of Chinese manufacturing behemoth BYD, and Stella Li, the CEO of BYD Americas. Escorting this scion of industry was the notably eligible Baron Heinrich von Frankenstein (who, thankfully, bears no resemblance to the monster who shares his name…)
December 1, 2025 at 1:01 PM
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Ghost of Yōtei photo mode: still good
Atsu, the protagonist of Ghost of Yotei, framed against a starry sky in her really rad bounty hunter armour and mask. Atsu framed against a sunset, snow-capped mountains in the background, forested hills in the foreground. Atsu in a cool hat that looks like Mount Yotei, as she faces off against a samurai in a nearly as cool hat Atsu looks up at the autumnal foliage of a forest, lit by sunset in the background.
November 24, 2025 at 9:19 PM
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British citizens who marry foreigners will have to make sure their spouses have a minimum income of £12,500 for 3 to 5 years, or they won't get indefinite leave to remain, the UK government has proposed. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/691edd...
Table 1: Minimum requirements that an application for settlement must meet to qualify Pillar Requirements Suitability The applicant must meet suitability requirements for an application, as set out in Part Suitability of the Immigration Rules) – for example, not having a criminal conviction. The applicant has no current litigation, NHS, tax or other government debt. Integration The applicant must be able to evidence that they meet English language requirements, which will be at B2 level under the Common European Framework of Reference for Languages. The applicant must be able to evidence that they have passed the Life in the UK test. Contribution Applicant has contributed to the Exchequer by having annual earnings above £12,570 for a minimum of 3 to 5 years (subject to consultation), in line with the current thresholds for paying income tax and National Insurance Contributions (NICs), or an alternative amount of income. Contribution This section focuses on ‘Contribution’. This reinforces the principle that settlement should be earned through active participation in the economy and wider society. To be eligible for settlement applicants must: • Have contributed to the Exchequer by having annual earnings above £12,570 for a minimum of 3 to 5 years (subject to this consultation), in line with the current thresholds for paying income tax and National Insurance Contributions (NICs), or an alternative amount of income. Please note, however, that these income-related thresholds would not track future changes to the tax system. • Have no outstanding litigation, NHS, tax or other government debt. 1. Do you think the following groups should be exempt from the requirement to have earned above £12,750 for at least 3 to 5 years? Yes No Don’t know / prefer not to say Those on maternity leave or long-term illness/disability Those in certain occupations with different pay arrangements (e.g. Ministers of Religion)
November 20, 2025 at 1:47 PM
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November 17, 2025 at 4:12 PM
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And based on these WeBuyCars estimates, new sales of Chinese brands still look to be in the early stages of growth in South Africa.
WeBuyCars estimates for the South African vehicle market FY2024 vs FY2025, from a presentation. Line chart to the left suggests new Chinese vehicle registrations are growing much faster YoY in this period than overall new or pre-owned registrations, in some months more than 90% or 100%. Bar chart to the right - 'Chinese vehicle sales as a portion of total new vehicle sales' suggests these sales were still less than 9,000 of nearly 54,000 in total in September, but have grown strongly every month since April last year.
November 17, 2025 at 11:40 AM
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Another small but telling sign of how China's boom in low-cost exports is affecting emerging markets. WeBuyCars, a South African used car dealer, says new Chinese brands in the new car market are cheap enough to push it to lower prices in the used market. (Via www.webuycars.co.za/investors/fi...)
These results were delivered in a challenging trading environment, particularly in the second half of the year, characterised by low GDP growth, pressure on consumer affordability, lower levels of consumer confidence and lower bank approval rates. WeBuyCars experienced margin pressure resulting from structural shifts within the South African automotive industry. The continued strength of the new vehicle market, together with the rapid rise of competitively priced Chinese brands, including GWM, Chery, Omoda, Jaecoo, Jetour, MG, JAC and BAIC, has significantly influenced consumer behaviour and heightened competition. These brands have captured notable market share through attractive pricing and compelling new-vehicle offerings. To maintain liquidity and ensure healthy inventory turns, WeBuyCars adjusted selling prices on vehicles competing within these price brackets. This proactive measure placed short-term pressure on margins during the second half of the year.
November 17, 2025 at 11:34 AM
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Brought down by Barclays ‘public policy thought leadership content’. What a way to go on.ft.com/3LslGp4
Kitty Ussher, a former Labour Treasury minister now at Barclays, has been brought in to brief Starmer's officials in recent weeks on how markets crave political stability. "She told us investors were looking closely at the PLP," said one attendee at the briefing, referring to the restive Parliamentary Labour party. Ussher noted how the bond markets wobbled when Reeves cried in the House of Commons in July, prompting speculation she was about to be sacked. Now Starmer's aides have raised the idea that the prime minister himself might be removed by his own party.
November 12, 2025 at 9:03 AM
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Lots of focus on what this will all mean for the credit of the data centre builders. Just as interesting, what it means for the credit of utilities who will sell the power (but on what terms?). From a recent Jefferies note (‘Guardrails before gigawatts’):
Hyperscale computing has broken traditional utility rate structures. Data center demand from technology companies expanding Al and cloud computing capabilities now routinely involves individual campuses requiring hundreds of megawatts to multiple gigawatts of capacity, representing billions in required generation, transmission, and distribution investments. Traditional C&l rate schedules designed for manufacturing plants and office buildings cannot adequately address the risk profile of customers whose single-site load exceeds that of entire cities, creating a regulatory vacuum that threatens both utility credit quality and state competitiveness for economic development. The scale disconnect is stark: while a typical large industrial customer might require 10-50 MW with gradual ramp periods, hyperscale facilities demand 200-500 MW minimum with expectations of rapid energization, and the largest campuses like ETR's Meta agreement involve 2.3 GW of new capacity requiring billions of dollars in utility investment.
November 11, 2025 at 5:22 PM
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Ghost of Yōtei photo mode: like Tsushima, it’s good
Portrait shot of Atsu, the protagonist of Ghost of Yotei Landscape shot of Atsu and Mount Yotei at sunset in Ghost of Yotei. Dramatic nighttime shot of Atsu as blood and rain pour from the sky in Ghost of Yotei. Wielding dual katanas, Atsu downs an outlaw in a shower of blood and blue flowers in Ghost of Yotei.
November 9, 2025 at 1:44 PM
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On the one hand this *is* a lot like Hungary or Turkey. On the other, it's also a lot like what it was like to cover South Africa in the throes of state capture around 2016, where many were very reluctant to call out Zuma on the record. Until suddenly they weren't. www.ft.com/content/1377...
What has changed is simple: people are scared of crossing Trump this time. In researching this piece, I interviewed dozens of figures, including lawmakers, private sector executives, retired senior military figures and intelligence chiefs, current and former Trump officials, Washington lawyers and foreign government officials. Such is the fear of jail, bankruptcy or professional reprisal, that most of these people insisted on anonymity. This was in spite of the fact that many of the same people also wanted to emphasise that Trump would only be restrained by powerful voices opposing him publicly. At times, it has felt like trying to report on politics in Turkey or Hungary.
October 24, 2025 at 12:20 PM
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Another interesting part of this bill being proposed by Conservative MPs is that it would have subjected my marriage and others to central planning via a cap on spousal visas.

The love quota.

(The second reading for this ghastly bill is, appropriately, notionally set for Halloween.)
Restrictions on visas for partners and civil partners (1) 40 The Secretary of State must make regulations specifying the maximum number of persons who may enter the United Kingdom annually as a spouse or civil partner of another (the sponsor). (5) The regulations must specify that the number of persons from any one country 15 who enter as a spouse or civil partner of a sponsor cannot exceed 7% of the maximum number specified in the regulations under subsection (1). (6) If, in any year, the number of persons who enter the United Kingdom as a 20 spouse or civil partner of a sponsor exceeds the number specified in regulations under this section, the Secretary of State must lay a statement before Parliament— (a) setting out the number of persons who have, in that year, entered the United Kingdom as a spouse or civil partner of a sponsor; and (b) explaining why the number exceeds that specified in the regulations.
October 22, 2025 at 8:08 AM
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1) Also, the ‘health’ surcharge isn’t. It’s not hypothecated revenue
2) It’s upfront not PAYE (outsiders often surprised by that)
3) You can’t ‘go private’ instead of paying it
4) This is part of why moving ILR qualification from 5 to 10 years is also a money spinner on.ft.com/4oyDMnB
FT chart which shows cost of a Global Talent Visa is nearly £6,000 when adding the ‘Immigration Health Surcharge’
October 21, 2025 at 8:43 AM
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“Hello, is that good money? Yeah there’s been a bit of a situation with bad again.” www.ft.com/content/a241...
US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent said Washington would arrange a $20bn package to help Argentina make debt repayments with capital from private banks and sovereign wealth funds as the Trump administration seeks to boost President Javier Milei amid his nation's market crisis. "It is a private-sector solution to Argentina's upcoming debt payments, and many banks are interested in it, and many sovereign funds have expressed interest in being part of it," Bessent told reporters in Washington on Wednesday.
October 15, 2025 at 8:45 PM
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Gold prices: also a factor in Ethiopia's debt restructuring. In return for a haircut, bondholders want a warrant that would be linked to export growth. Talks on that have just stalled but there is clearly one export in particular that stands out. And it's not coffee.
Ethiopian table of goods and services exports, 2023/24 to 2024/25. Coffee went from $1.4bn to $2.6bn. Gold went from $408mn... to $3.5bn
October 14, 2025 at 11:29 AM
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Imagine the idea of a leader who is so checked out of his own trade policies that in the ensuing infighting the pugnacious commerce ministry is pitted against the more cautious finance ministry. www.ft.com/content/fbc5...
Earlier on Monday, Bessent said it was possible Xi was unaware of the rare earths announcement. The senior US official said there was a fight between government agencies in Beijing that was affecting US-China negotiations. "We think there's an internal dynamic between the finance ministry and the commerce ministry. Their commerce department - including Li - is much more provocative," the senior official told the FT.
October 14, 2025 at 6:55 AM
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Brb looking for some steampunk rocket boosters.
AI Overview for "how to achieve steampunk manned spaceflight“ To achieve steampunk-style manned spaceflight, you must combine real engineering principles with steampunk aesthetics by using steam-powered propulsion, intricate mechanical designs, and Victorian-era styling. This can be accomplished by modifying existing spaceflight technology with gears, polished brass, and ornate detailing, designing spacecraft that look like airships, and developing steam-powered thrusters that utilize mined water as fuel
October 8, 2025 at 1:40 PM
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Angola did another sovereign debt repo. This time transferring dollar bonds to a Chinese bank for renminbi, which is a twist on the formula. (From a prospectus for a bond sale today)
ICBCS Repo On 29 September 2025, Angola and ICBC Standard Bank plc ("ICBCS") entered into (i) a 15 calendar month repurchase transaction, (ii) an 18 calendar month repurchase transaction, (iii) a 21 calendar month repurchase transaction and (iv) a 24 calendar month repurchase transaction (the "Repos") documented by way of four separate confirmations (the "Repo Confirmations") and a Global Master Repurchase Agreement (2011 version) and an Annex I thereto (the "GMRA" and together with the Repo Confirmations, the "Repo Agreement"). The Repo Agreement is subject to English law and resolution of any disputes by international arbitration. Under the Repos, following satisfaction of certain conditions precedent, Angola will transfer to ICBCS a nominal amount of zero coupon notes equal to approximately U.S.$312,500,000 issued locally by Angola through Bolsa de Dívida e Valores de Angola (the "Repo Notes"), and in return receive from ICBCS a financing amount of approximately RMB 891,250,000 (the "Purchase Price"). Ownership of the Repo Notes will pass to ICBCS on a full title transfer basis and the Repos provide that ICBCS has the right to sell or otherwise dispose of its ownership interest in the Repo Notes.
October 7, 2025 at 11:52 AM
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Elizabeth Warren has some questions for Scott Bessent on the US bailout in the works for Argentina. www.banking.senate.gov/imo/media/do...
1. What is the Treasury Department’s criteria for determining whether an ally is “systemically important”? 2. What is the impact of Argentina’s financial market turmoil on American jobs, workers’ wages, and U.S. financial stability? Please provide evidence of any such impact. 3. Please provide the Administration’s legal analysis that deploying the ESF to bail out Argentina’s financial markets complies with the Gold Reserve Act of 1934. 4. President Milei thanked you and President Trump for “unconditional support.”12 a. What is the scale and conditionality of the U.S. financial support currently under consideration? b. What is the expected cost to the U.S. taxpayer? 5. Have any hedge funds or other market participants reached out to you, or any other Administration officials, advocating for intervention in Argentina’s financial markets? If so, please provide a list of the market participants and a description of the conversations. 6. What communication, if any, has the Treasury Department had with President Milei or officials from the Argentinian government regarding the current state of Argentina’s financial markets? Please provide a list of individuals with whom the Department has communicated and a description of the conversations.
September 23, 2025 at 12:25 PM
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Cenotaph memorial to James II and his sons in the last direct Stuart line in St Peter’s, Rome
September 23, 2025 at 11:44 AM