Joseph Cotterill
@jsphctrl.ft.com
Emerging Markets correspondent at the Financial Times.
Finance minister, not a central banker, but for me the EM analogy to Trump-Powell is the saga of Jacob Zuma versus Pravin Gordhan in South Africa, 2016-17. Gordhan was charged, then charges were dropped, then he was sacked anyway. But ultimately SA's core public finance institutions survived.
January 12, 2026 at 11:40 AM
Finance minister, not a central banker, but for me the EM analogy to Trump-Powell is the saga of Jacob Zuma versus Pravin Gordhan in South Africa, 2016-17. Gordhan was charged, then charges were dropped, then he was sacked anyway. But ultimately SA's core public finance institutions survived.
Reposted by Joseph Cotterill
Just saying, I spent twenty years in Emerging Markets watching countries pull this sort of thing with their Central Banks and am available for lucrative consulting gigs.
January 12, 2026 at 8:34 AM
Just saying, I spent twenty years in Emerging Markets watching countries pull this sort of thing with their Central Banks and am available for lucrative consulting gigs.
The US has confirmed that creditors won’t be able to attach revenue from Venezuelan oil that lands in US Treasury accounts. Which would have been a very bold holdout strategy anyway. In other words another sign that recovery will await a restructuring. www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/...
January 10, 2026 at 8:40 PM
The US has confirmed that creditors won’t be able to attach revenue from Venezuelan oil that lands in US Treasury accounts. Which would have been a very bold holdout strategy anyway. In other words another sign that recovery will await a restructuring. www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/...
“Central bank data shows Argentina increased its debt with “international organisations” by roughly the same amount as the figure repaid to the US Treasury in the week before the repayment in December.” www.ft.com/content/b721...
Argentina repays US financial lifeline as Milei emerges from market crisis
Buenos Aires hands back $2.5bn it drew under swap line ahead of pivotal election in October
www.ft.com
January 9, 2026 at 5:41 PM
“Central bank data shows Argentina increased its debt with “international organisations” by roughly the same amount as the figure repaid to the US Treasury in the week before the repayment in December.” www.ft.com/content/b721...
The Venezuela Creditor Committee (probably the biggest bondholder group) reminds everyone it exists and “stands ready to initiate a negotiated process, when authorised.“ www.einnews.com/pr_news/8816...
Venezuela Creditor Committee Stands Ready to Initiate Prospective Debt Restructuring
The Venezuela Creditor Committee (“VCC”) is a representative and diverse group of US and allied international investors in debt obligations of the Venezuela
www.einnews.com
January 9, 2026 at 3:56 PM
The Venezuela Creditor Committee (probably the biggest bondholder group) reminds everyone it exists and “stands ready to initiate a negotiated process, when authorised.“ www.einnews.com/pr_news/8816...
This is quite a story, and not unimportant for Cuba, which needs export earnings more than ever... halfwheel.com/american-san...
January 9, 2026 at 11:59 AM
This is quite a story, and not unimportant for Cuba, which needs export earnings more than ever... halfwheel.com/american-san...
Oil for Food II?
US Dept of Energy statement on Venezuela: "All proceeds from the sale of Venezuelan crude oil and oil products will first settle in U.S. controlled accounts at globally recognized banks to guarantee the legitimacy and integrity of the ultimate distribution of proceeds ..."
January 7, 2026 at 8:05 PM
Oil for Food II?
With the rally in Venezuela’s bonds already quite advanced, investors have been trying to buy up its more exotic debts - arbitration awards, receivables and other legal claims- to get in the creditor queue for an eventual restructuring. www.ft.com/content/2c04...
Hedge funds hunt for Venezuela’s unpaid financial claims
US capture of Nicolás Maduro lifts hopes that country will make good on some debt
www.ft.com
January 7, 2026 at 9:41 AM
With the rally in Venezuela’s bonds already quite advanced, investors have been trying to buy up its more exotic debts - arbitration awards, receivables and other legal claims- to get in the creditor queue for an eventual restructuring. www.ft.com/content/2c04...
Reposted by Joseph Cotterill
South African stonks have absolutely crushed over the past year or so. Some specific contributors: Naspers (13% weight) owns 23% of Chinese digital conglomerate Tencent (ADR TCHEY). Plus Anglogold, Gold Fields, and Valterra Platinum are a bit more than a quarter of the index by weight.
January 6, 2026 at 2:51 PM
South African stonks have absolutely crushed over the past year or so. Some specific contributors: Naspers (13% weight) owns 23% of Chinese digital conglomerate Tencent (ADR TCHEY). Plus Anglogold, Gold Fields, and Valterra Platinum are a bit more than a quarter of the index by weight.
Venezuela's bondholders naturally not so keen on the Iraq 'wipe out the creditors' analogy. Keener on the 'oil production comeback' part of the Iraq analogy, oddly enough www.ft.com/content/8736...
A four-letter word that spells doom for Venezuela’s creditors
Bondholders could get Bakerised
www.ft.com
January 6, 2026 at 2:18 PM
Venezuela's bondholders naturally not so keen on the Iraq 'wipe out the creditors' analogy. Keener on the 'oil production comeback' part of the Iraq analogy, oddly enough www.ft.com/content/8736...
“The question is, will it work? I think Delcy is going to dance the tango with Team Trump and then she’s going to be stabbed in the back by Diosdado and Padrino López, and then Trump will be back in a kinetic sense.” www.ft.com/content/4b87...
The woman with Donald Trump’s nod to lead Venezuela
Washington has built its transition plans around vice-president Delcy Rodríguez, a canny operator close to the oil industry
www.ft.com
January 5, 2026 at 6:20 PM
“The question is, will it work? I think Delcy is going to dance the tango with Team Trump and then she’s going to be stabbed in the back by Diosdado and Padrino López, and then Trump will be back in a kinetic sense.” www.ft.com/content/4b87...
First problem for any Venezuelan debt restructuring and why it may be months off at best is that Delcy Rodriguez, as interim leader, remains on the US sanctions list. Which would make it difficult to invite US investors or creditors to Caracas. sanctionssearch.ofac.treas.gov/Details.aspx...
Sanctions List Search
sanctionssearch.ofac.treas.gov
January 5, 2026 at 4:15 PM
First problem for any Venezuelan debt restructuring and why it may be months off at best is that Delcy Rodriguez, as interim leader, remains on the US sanctions list. Which would make it difficult to invite US investors or creditors to Caracas. sanctionssearch.ofac.treas.gov/Details.aspx...
Shares in Gold Reserve have opened up more than 100%. Canada-listed gold miner, but maybe more importantly... a significant creditor to Venezuela.
January 5, 2026 at 3:02 PM
Shares in Gold Reserve have opened up more than 100%. Canada-listed gold miner, but maybe more importantly... a significant creditor to Venezuela.
Venezuela bonds opened up 7 to 8 points or so in early (and thin) London trading, or up a quarter on Friday prices. Waiting for the US to get in.
Venezuelan bonds are generally expected to open up a lot (from 33 or so cents) in Monday markets. The bigger question in the background will be working out the up to date size of Venezuela’s overall debt. It is shaping up to be one of the biggest sovereign debt restructurings in history anyway.
January 5, 2026 at 10:45 AM
Venezuela bonds opened up 7 to 8 points or so in early (and thin) London trading, or up a quarter on Friday prices. Waiting for the US to get in.
Venezuelan bonds are generally expected to open up a lot (from 33 or so cents) in Monday markets. The bigger question in the background will be working out the up to date size of Venezuela’s overall debt. It is shaping up to be one of the biggest sovereign debt restructurings in history anyway.
January 5, 2026 at 7:30 AM
Venezuelan bonds are generally expected to open up a lot (from 33 or so cents) in Monday markets. The bigger question in the background will be working out the up to date size of Venezuela’s overall debt. It is shaping up to be one of the biggest sovereign debt restructurings in history anyway.
Saturday afternoon in Caracas: www.ft.com/content/a0e1...
January 4, 2026 at 11:48 AM
Saturday afternoon in Caracas: www.ft.com/content/a0e1...
Trump referred to Rodriguez being leader post-Maduro and in communication with Marco Rubio so it is looking more like the below is the plan. At least for now.
With all this uncertainty about who ‘runs’ any Venezuelan transition, Reuters reports Vice President Delcy Rodriguez is in Moscow. Creditors have thought that she and her brother Jorge (in Caracas) might oversee a transition and have channels to the US. www.reuters.com/world/americ...
Venezuela vice president Rodriguez in Russia, four sources say
Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez is in Russia, four sources familiar with her movements said on Saturday, after President Donald Trump said President Nicolas Maduro had been by U.S. forces af...
www.reuters.com
January 3, 2026 at 6:11 PM
Trump referred to Rodriguez being leader post-Maduro and in communication with Marco Rubio so it is looking more like the below is the plan. At least for now.
With all this uncertainty about who ‘runs’ any Venezuelan transition, Reuters reports Vice President Delcy Rodriguez is in Moscow. Creditors have thought that she and her brother Jorge (in Caracas) might oversee a transition and have channels to the US. www.reuters.com/world/americ...
Venezuela vice president Rodriguez in Russia, four sources say
Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez is in Russia, four sources familiar with her movements said on Saturday, after President Donald Trump said President Nicolas Maduro had been by U.S. forces af...
www.reuters.com
January 3, 2026 at 5:02 PM
With all this uncertainty about who ‘runs’ any Venezuelan transition, Reuters reports Vice President Delcy Rodriguez is in Moscow. Creditors have thought that she and her brother Jorge (in Caracas) might oversee a transition and have channels to the US. www.reuters.com/world/americ...
Venezuela’s creditors increasingly thought Maduro was doomed - as reflected in bond prices in recent months - but many did not expect that his exit would be this rapid or dramatic. www.ft.com/content/a8be...
Investors pile into Venezuelan debt in regime change bet
Bonds have risen sharply to the highest level since 2019 as the Trump administration increases pressure on Maduro
www.ft.com
January 3, 2026 at 10:35 AM
Venezuela’s creditors increasingly thought Maduro was doomed - as reflected in bond prices in recent months - but many did not expect that his exit would be this rapid or dramatic. www.ft.com/content/a8be...
AP and others report Maduro has ordered national mobilisation after the US appears to have struck the Fuerte Tiuna military complex and other sites in Caracas early this morning. Some FT background from October on this: www.ft.com/content/34cc...
Venezuela’s creaking military prepares for US strikes
Regime forces focus not on defence but on quashing dissent, analysts and opposition figures say
www.ft.com
January 3, 2026 at 8:50 AM
AP and others report Maduro has ordered national mobilisation after the US appears to have struck the Fuerte Tiuna military complex and other sites in Caracas early this morning. Some FT background from October on this: www.ft.com/content/34cc...
Reposted by Joseph Cotterill
If you're interested in becoming a journalist at (in my salmon-tinted view) the best place on earth to be one, try this job-boards.greenhouse.io/financialtim...
Paul McClean Graduate Trainee
London
job-boards.greenhouse.io
December 31, 2025 at 2:52 PM
If you're interested in becoming a journalist at (in my salmon-tinted view) the best place on earth to be one, try this job-boards.greenhouse.io/financialtim...
Interesting that there was *a* recognition of Somaliland this year, but not by the US (yet), and after it de facto got smaller (with Khatumo state being recognised as a federal state of Somalia).
Notable Mozambique isn't on the radar here - it will be an early flashpoint this month and could be a prolonged crisis. The US also has a big call to make on whether to finance Total's gas project...
Other 2025 Africa wildcards: possible Somaliland recognition - and does Ecowas break up after all.
Other 2025 Africa wildcards: possible Somaliland recognition - and does Ecowas break up after all.
Semafor's compilation of some well known commentators on Africa - their outlook for 2025. Some noting US/South Africa tension ... Nigeria unlikely to reach its 2m bpd oil target .. the need for change in Ghana's spend and borrow habit .. and views on Kenya / Ruto
www.semafor.com/article/01/0...
www.semafor.com/article/01/0...
December 28, 2025 at 1:07 PM
Interesting that there was *a* recognition of Somaliland this year, but not by the US (yet), and after it de facto got smaller (with Khatumo state being recognised as a federal state of Somalia).
“The US military said in its initial assessment that “multiple” Isis members had been killed… However, residents of Jabo professed surprise at the strikes, saying the bombs had landed in empty fields, causing no casualties” www.ft.com/content/99d2...
Why bomb Sokoto? Trump’s strikes baffle Nigerians
US missile attacks on Christmas Day hit a part of Nigeria’s north-west that is almost entirely Muslim
www.ft.com
December 26, 2025 at 7:32 PM
“The US military said in its initial assessment that “multiple” Isis members had been killed… However, residents of Jabo professed surprise at the strikes, saying the bombs had landed in empty fields, causing no casualties” www.ft.com/content/99d2...
Reposted by Joseph Cotterill
James Merril’s poem “Christmas Tree,” written while he was dying of AIDS. 1995.
December 24, 2025 at 1:43 PM
James Merril’s poem “Christmas Tree,” written while he was dying of AIDS. 1995.