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Joseph Cotterill

@jsphctrl.ft.com

8.2K followers 230 following 890 posts

Emerging Markets correspondent at the Financial Times.

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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 13h

Percentage of 401k assets in equities?

Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 15h

“Bessent told Fox News Thursday that he thinks the peso is undervalued.”

Again, even investors who are very positive on Argentina dollar bonds think it's overvalued by at least 20% and that the band is not long for this world. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Bessent’s Big Gamble on Argentina Has a Narrow Road to Pay Off

For Scott Bessent’s $20 billion bet on Argentina to pay off, a lot of things have to go right – things that in the past, in Argentina, have tended to go wrong.

www.bloomberg.com

Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 1d

“We go long BONTE 30s FX Unhedged” - US investment banks do not miss a trick

(The Bonte is peso-denominated debt issued this year that foreign investors could buy in dollars)

Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 1d

On the one hand, direct peso buying is putting your money where your mouth is on currency support (and rates on peso paper are very high). On the other hand… do it a lot and you’re sat on a lot of pesos if it all goes south in the end.

Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 1d

Yep - Mexico 1995 was loans and guarantees versus direct FX buying for example. And only four direct interventions in any currency since 1996, counting Argentina today.

Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 1d

Sorry that should be selling yen in 2011!

(Last major direct FX intervention by the ESF was * the yen in 2011 (alongside the Fed).)

Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 1d

Not even some of the more bullish Argentine bondholders like the band very much! Sounds like a way to get the market to stop testing the band before the elections and then sort it out.

Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 1d

Scott Bessent has really nailed the US to the mast of Argentina’s peso policy today - not just confirming the $20bn swap line, but that the US directly bought pesos today. He has also declared the current band “fit for purpose”: x.com/secscottbess...

Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 1d

"This is not the first program, but if I put my optimistic hat on, I can maybe say that it could be the last program of the IMF with Argentina," Georgieva said.

That's a very big Optimistic Hat.

Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 1d

I missed that Georgieva saying the US could lend SDRs to Argentina, like Qatar did in 2023. The ESF does have a lot more SDRs than liquid dollars. Ironically however... that Qatar support was aimed specifically at covering a payment by Argentina to the IMF! www.reuters.com/world/americ...

www.reuters.com

Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 1d

Cape comics is an industry with a notoriously difficult history over creator rights (and scandals over tracing and swiping of images over the years). So this is a really interesting red line. www.theverge.com/news/797540/...

DC Comics won’t support generative AI: ‘not now, not ever’

“People have an instinctive reaction to what feels authentic.”

www.theverge.com

Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 2d

Brb looking for some steampunk rocket boosters.

AI Overview for "how to achieve steampunk manned spaceflight“

To achieve steampunk-style manned spaceflight, you must combine real engineering principles with steampunk aesthetics by using steam-powered propulsion, intricate mechanical designs, and Victorian-era styling. This can be accomplished by modifying existing spaceflight technology with gears, polished brass, and ornate detailing, designing spacecraft that look like airships, and developing steam-powered thrusters that utilize mined water as fuel

Reposted by Joseph Cotterill

Daniel Knowles @dlknowles.bsky.social · 2d

My piece - to be in this week's issue - on the South Shore raid and what it says about Donald Trump's America:

www.economist.com/united-state...

My view is this stuff is as much or more about creating content and fear than it is about actually catching immigrants, though that's a goal too

Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 2d

The US has cut off diplomatic engagement with Venezuela and might move strikes at sea landward at any time (www.bloomberg.com/news/article...). So it's interesting Venezuela's defaulted, nearly worthless bonds are up about 50% year to date at this point (or about 25 cents on the dollar).

Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 2d

Will we stop getting Carly Simon Disease over their catch up growth? No. Well, shall we take advantage anyway or at the very least try not to kneecap certain exports such as services to these growing economies? Also no.

Dan Davies @dsquareddigest.bsky.social · 2d

Perhaps not the main point but I always hate it when people view it as a sign of failure when poorer countries grow faster. There is absolutely no intrinsic reason why Poland should have lower income than the UK or any other EU country forever, and that means it will have to grow faster sometimes

Adam Bienkov @adambienkov.bsky.social · 2d

"15 years ago, Polish workers came here to find opportunity. Now Poland is growing twice as fast as we are," says Kemi Badenoch.

Any ideas what may have happened in the interim?

Reposted by Joseph Cotterill

Dan Davies @dsquareddigest.bsky.social · 2d

Perhaps not the main point but I always hate it when people view it as a sign of failure when poorer countries grow faster. There is absolutely no intrinsic reason why Poland should have lower income than the UK or any other EU country forever, and that means it will have to grow faster sometimes

Adam Bienkov @adambienkov.bsky.social · 2d

"15 years ago, Polish workers came here to find opportunity. Now Poland is growing twice as fast as we are," says Kemi Badenoch.

Any ideas what may have happened in the interim?

Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 3d

Angola did another sovereign debt repo. This time transferring dollar bonds to a Chinese bank for renminbi, which is a twist on the formula. (From a prospectus for a bond sale today)

ICBCS Repo

On 29 September 2025, Angola and ICBC Standard Bank plc ("ICBCS") entered into (i) a 15 calendar month repurchase transaction, (ii) an 18 calendar month repurchase transaction, (iii) a 21 calendar month repurchase transaction and (iv) a 24 calendar month repurchase transaction (the "Repos") documented by way of four separate confirmations (the "Repo Confirmations") and a Global Master Repurchase Agreement (2011 version) and an Annex I thereto (the "GMRA" and together with the Repo Confirmations, the "Repo Agreement"). The Repo Agreement is subject to English law and resolution of any disputes by international arbitration.

Under the Repos, following satisfaction of certain conditions precedent, Angola will transfer to ICBCS a nominal amount of zero coupon notes equal to approximately U.S.$312,500,000 issued locally by Angola through Bolsa de Dívida e Valores de Angola (the "Repo Notes"), and in return receive from ICBCS a financing amount of approximately RMB 891,250,000 (the "Purchase Price"). Ownership of the Repo Notes will pass to ICBCS on a full title transfer basis and the Repos provide that ICBCS has the right to sell or otherwise dispose of its ownership interest in the Repo Notes.

Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 3d

We appear to be at that point in the cycle www.ft.com/content/fbf7...

Emerging markets roar back with biggest stock rally in 15 years

‘Stars are finally aligning’ for EM assets, as weakening US dollar sends investors in search of yield

Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 7d

The bill this week certainly is a situation where consenting adults theoretically *can* do something like that, and there is clearly a market for it, but you shouldn't like to admit to it in polite society afterward

Janine Gibson @janinegibson.ft.com · 7d

Lunch with the FT this week is with OnlyFans chief executive Keily Blair on.ft.com/3IRzwQF

OnlyFans chief Keily Blair: ‘People can be quite uncomfortable talking about sex’

[FREE TO READ] The boss of one of Britain’s biggest tech start-ups on the ethics of porn, the future of the content creator economy — and why the platform banned Bonnie Blue

Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 7d

Or just fits with the HTB vibe of one Paul Marshall.

Jim Waterson @jim.londoncentric.media · 7d

So interesting that GB News is sticking with female archbishop story longer than BBC/Sky, going through her tweets live on air, starting to cancel her for being woke.

They keep talking about the Christian public taking it badly, fits with the growing US-style religious vibe of the British right?

Reposted by Joseph Cotterill

Alan Beattie @alanbeattie.bsky.social · 8d

My Trade Secrets today. Javier Milei's chainsaw deregulation (right direction but execution unclear) is his signature policy but not the big question right now.

Qu is if he's got the cojones & the political capital to break the endless Argentine macro crisis cycle & float the currency.

Thread 1/n

Trump’s lifeline won’t stop Argentina’s president repeating old mistakes

[FREE TO READ] Javier Milei has wasted foreign exchange reserves trying to hold up the peso

Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 9d

20%

Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 9d

Argentina 2029s: now yours for 18.6%.

“You say you have a bazooka with the intention of not using it... But people start to think: ‘What’s behind it? How certain is it?’ and the market has a lot of doubts because nothing is clear.“

www.ft.com/content/6333...

Argentine assets hit by fresh selling amid worries over US bailout

Peso, stocks and bonds all fall as investors fret over lack of details from Washington on rescue plan

Reposted by Joseph Cotterill

Jordan @jordanpfot.bsky.social · 10d

It is so frustrating to see them do the oh so serious “you MUST contribute or you’re out!” song and dance, and then, when pressed on the problems with that proposal, retreat into “well there are lots of ways to contribute”. Unedifying.

Farrukh @implausibleblog.bsky.social · 11d

Krishnan Guru Murthy, "Isn't it a bit insulting to say to an Indian doctor who is working 60-70 hours a week that in order to get settled status he's got to volunteer?"

Rachel Reeves, "We want people to contribute if they come to our country"

Labour have gone utterly bonkers

Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 10d

Why - without conditions on usage - Scott Bessent is bluffing on Argentina’s $20bn US swap line: it’s most of the Exchange Stabilisation Fund’s liquid dollar reserves. Can convert its SDRs with Fed liquidity but that might spark an interesting political conversation. www.ft.com/content/5f4b...

Other people’s money, and the problem with Mileism

The US Treasury needs to get Argentina on a better policy path before it blows through the Exchange Stabilization Fund