I think the increase in headroom was a good thing. But Reeves did mislead the public by talking up the productivity downgrade without mentioning the offsetting factors. And Miles directly contradicted the claim that improved OBR forecasts allowed the plan to raise income tax rates to be dropped.

Not in my view (obviously! 😉).

No-one would disagree with the 'big picture' that the public finances are in poor shape. Instead, people were misled on the detail.

ps. the ONS deserves credit for updating the way that the data are collected - not criticism! 🤓

The key change is well summarised here... 👇

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

But it is still worrying that we do not have a clearer picture of what is actually going on - and the more negative takes may well be right.

2⃣ these data do not tell us why people are leaving - there is a big difference between, say, a young tech entrepreneur fleeing to Dubai, and an elderly couple retiring to Spain...

1⃣ the revisions may simply reflect better measurement (the old survey method was rubbish) rather than a change in the underlying trend - in other words, the number of Britons leaving may always have been higher than previously estimated...

It is still possible that the Budget itself is not as bad as feared, or at least that uncertainty eases sufficiently to allow some hiring and investment to resume. The reaction in the bond markets will also be crucial.

For now, though, private sector activity appears to be on hold. (5/5)

The manufacturing PMI suggests that the sector recovered a little in October, led by the restart at JLR. But overall GDP growth is still likely to have been subdued, mainly due to pre-Budget uncertainty... (4/5)