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Julian King @juliankingnz.bsky.social · 2d

Rather than making evaluators obsolete, I could see AI increasing demand for evaluation, but only if we get the mix of human and AI inputs right. Woe betide those who get the mix wrong…

Dominique Baker @bakerdphd.bsky.social · 3d

"Deloitte Australia will issue a partial refund to the federal government after admitting that artificial intelligence had been used in the creation of a $440,000 report littered with errors including three nonexistent academic references and a made-up quote from a Federal Court judgement."

bianca wylie @biancawylie.com · 3d

“Deloitte was forced to investigate the report after University of Sydney academic Dr Christopher Rudge highlighted multiple errors in the document.”

www.afr.com/companies/pr...

Julian King @juliankingnz.bsky.social · 2d

Will AI make evaluators redundant? Or could it enable better, quicker, cheaper evaluation, boosting demand and making evaluators busier than ever?

open.substack.com/pub/julianki...

Julian King @juliankingnz.bsky.social · 7d

Thanks to you Aaron, I now have the Bee Gees stuck in my head: It’s just your vibe workin’, you’re telling me lies, yeah; vibe workin’, you wear a disguise…

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Julian King @juliankingnz.bsky.social · 7d

I have a feeling you will approve of my next Substack article…

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Julian King @juliankingnz.bsky.social · 9d

This has been up for less than 2 weeks and is already my most read blog post of all 147 to date. It’s always the one you least suspect eh… open.substack.com/pub/julianki...

Applying Bradford Hill Criteria to observational evidence

Towards evidentiary criteria for causal inference in evaluation

open.substack.com

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Reposted by Julian King

Connor Sharp @connorsharp.bsky.social · 11d

Wow look at this street. There must be incredible productivity gains on this crucial economic route from Simeon Browns blanket speed increases. So safe, and so fitting at 50km/h!

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Reposted by Julian King

Jolisa Gracewood @nzdodo.bsky.social · 11d

Had to witness this for myself – it’s real, and even worse as seen from the footpath.

(Context: these narrow back-streets had a community-supported 30kmh speed limit… but in mid-2025, were forcibly reverted to 50kmh by the current govt.)

Dangerous, petty, ridiculous kneejerk vice-signalling, ugh.

A photo of tiny Provost St in Herne Bay, off Jervois Road, showing the shiny new 50kmh sign planted in the footpath. The road itself is narrow, and is a single one-way lane at the entrance. It’s just one example of the ludicrous wholesale / blanket speed raises imposed on Auckland (impacting over 1400 quiet local streets) by the current government.

The instrument of destruction in this instance was an unusually restrictive Speed Rule, designed and introduced by Simeon Brown over the objections of road safety experts, local authorities, emergency room physicians, schools and communities.

Simeon Brown’s Speed Rule not only mandates a reversion from 30 to 50 of any safer speeds implemented “with the presence of a school as a reason”, it also effectively banned 30kmh as an option in urban contexts in future. Madness. And so mean.

The Speed Rule also specifically targeted only the safe speeds installed since January 2020 (ie under the Labour govt, so petty!), resulting in many examples of inequitable and uneven rollout across the city.

The actual changes were implemented under new transport minister Chris Bishop, who disappointingly declined his golden opportunity to amend the rule to mitigate the unforeseen scale of the impact, despite numerous pleas from the public.

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Julian King @juliankingnz.bsky.social · Sep 4

The pipe dream of objectivity is alluring but doomed - the real choice is between making values explicit or hiding them under a rug.

open.substack.com/pub/julianki...

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Julian King @juliankingnz.bsky.social · Sep 2

Goldilocks and the Three Criteria - not too specific, not too vague: just right.

open.substack.com/pub/julianki...

Julian King @juliankingnz.bsky.social · Aug 31

open.substack.com/pub/julianki...

VfI meets TM: Monitoring that actually matters

How to rescue monitoring from managerial boredom

open.substack.com

Julian King @juliankingnz.bsky.social · Aug 18

Value is more than a number, but the number travels halfway around the world while the full value story is pulling its boots on.

Welcome to Episode 141 of Old Man Yells at Cloud...

open.substack.com/pub/julianki...

Communicating value

The headline travels around the world while the real story is pulling its boots on

open.substack.com

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Julian King @juliankingnz.bsky.social · Jul 22

There are some who believe the only real #evaluation is one that sums up an entire policy or program in a single number.

I see genuine value in that number. But only if it’s used right. It’s not objective, nor precise. It doesn't count everything that matters.

open.substack.com/pub/julianki...

Ten Commandments for Social CBA and SROI

The Stone Tablets of Social Value

open.substack.com

Julian King @juliankingnz.bsky.social · Jul 21

open.substack.com/pub/julianki...

Ten Commandments for Social CBA and SROI

The Stone Tablets of Social Value

open.substack.com

Julian King @juliankingnz.bsky.social · Jul 20

Ten Commandments for social cost-benefit analysis (#CBA) and social return on investment (#SROI).

Coming up next. Subscribe so you don’t miss it. Also check out my discount offer!

open.substack.com/pub/julianki...

Julian King @juliankingnz.bsky.social · Jul 10

In the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams talked about circumpolar cultures having over 200 different words for snow because it’s such a big part of their lives.

Should evaluators have over 200 words for epistemic harm? I managed to think of 42… open.substack.com/pub/julianki...

Is evaluation violent? Part 2

Summing up

open.substack.com

Julian King @juliankingnz.bsky.social · Jun 17

#Realist #Economic #Evaluation: a new hybrid methodology with big potential… open.substack.com/pub/julianki...

Realist economic evaluation

Not just “is the intervention worth it?” but how, for whom, when, and why

open.substack.com

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Julian King @juliankingnz.bsky.social · May 26

For decades, Cost-Benefit Analysis has been central to how the U.S. makes regulations, weighing gains and losses to society. But as the political landscape evolves, will CBA emphasise cost minimisation over the wider public good, undermining its intended purpose?👇

open.substack.com/pub/julianki...

Cost-benefit analysis in U.S. regulatory decision-making

What does the future hold?

open.substack.com

Julian King @juliankingnz.bsky.social · Apr 22

Human judgement isn’t a flaw in the process - it is the process. Making good decisions that enhance public value in spending reviews👇

open.substack.com/pub/julianki...

Value for Disinvestment

When budgets are shrinking and you have to decide what to let go of, it’s an opportunity to increase value from the remaining resources.

open.substack.com

Julian King @juliankingnz.bsky.social · Mar 27

Sharepoint! MFA so effective even you can’t access your files.

Julian King @juliankingnz.bsky.social · Mar 1

Cost-benefit analysis, born out of an attempt to establish ‘objective’ standards by which policies could be deemed economically desirable or not, remains as subjective as any other evaluation method at our disposal. Still useful tho. My take:

open.substack.com/pub/julianki...

Julian King @juliankingnz.bsky.social · Feb 28

A long black at Big White - or as they call it here…

Julian King @juliankingnz.bsky.social · Feb 24

This roller coaster is lame

Julian King @juliankingnz.bsky.social · Feb 22

Social investment: How do we determine “value” and who gets to decide?

Summary of a panel discussion I had with Atawhai Tibble last year👇

open.substack.com/pub/julianki...

Exploring value in the context of social investment

Social investment brings together different perspectives and ways of measuring value across social, economic and cultural domains. Doing it well requires integrated efforts across disciplines.

open.substack.com

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Julian King @juliankingnz.bsky.social · Feb 22

The zeitgeist moves so quickly sometimes it can be hard to keep up. However, I’ve sold the Tesla and am now riding a pushbike made from rescue vegetables.

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Julian King @juliankingnz.bsky.social · Feb 14

“If we concentrated on creating value as much as we do on managing risk, what would that look like?” - and other interesting reflections from NZ’s Public Service Commissioner…

www.publicservice.govt.nz/news/sir-bri...

Sir Brian Roche on reorientating the Public Service | Te Kawa Mataaho Public Service Commission

Public Service Commissioner Sir Brian Roche delivered this speech today at the 2025 New Zealand Economics Forum, hosted by Waikato Management School at the University of Waikato.

www.publicservice.govt.nz