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Reposted by Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

NBER @nber.org · 12d

Administrative data on international portfolios shows that issuers' supply elasticity depends on how investors' demand elasticity changes with arbitrage deviations, from Bertaut, Faia, @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social, Marchesini, Paetzold, and Schmitz https://www.nber.org/papers/w34275

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Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · Jun 17

Thrilled to talk about emerging market monetary policies and financial stability at this great conference organized by
FLAR and hosted by Central Bank of Colombia: eventos.flar.net/annual-econo...

Annual Economic Studies Conference 2025 – Eventos FLAR

eventos.flar.net

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Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · May 28

It was a pleasure to join the world trade dialogue! We need to navigate global uncertainty created by US policies to de-globalize and eliminate knowledge-based economies by diminishing universities. Global integration led to unprecented progress, lifting billions up. studiozx.de/events/world...

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Reposted by Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · May 26

Credit support policies in the form of credit guarantees and central bank credit lines can help firms substitute in the event of evaporating external credit for domestic borrowing.
Miguel Acosta-Henao, Patricia Gomez-Gonzalez, @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

Graph of the sudden stop-COVID shock in Chile: mean firm-level UIP deviation.

Sudden stops in international capital flows pose significant challenges for policymakers, especially in emerging markets. These abrupt halts in cross-border flows disrupt firms' access to external financing, leading to liquidity shortages that can severely undermine economic activity and growth. This column examines how credit support policies in the form of credit guarantees and central bank credit lines can help firms substitute the evaporating external credit for domestic borrowing, using the case of Chile during the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis provides strong evidence that the interventions were effective in mitigating the impact of the shock.

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Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · May 23

Thank you Bank of Finland for inviting me to give a talk on tariffs and monetary policy, fantastic papers and conference:
www.suomenpankki.fi/en/news-and-...

Bank of Finland and CEPR Joint Conference on Frontiers of Monetary Economics in the 21st century: Where and Where to?

The Bank of Finland builds financial stability. A stable price level, safe payment systems and a reliable financial system promote sustainable economic growth, employment and the well-being of Finns.

www.suomenpankki.fi

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Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · May 23

Thanks to all the presenters, discussants, organizers and our host CBRT for making our @nber.org conference an amazing event!
Gita Gopinath's keynote posted here: imf.org/en/News/Arti...
Videos of all the papers and the policy panel will be posted soon, here:
nber.org/conferences/...

Steering through the Fog: The Art and Science of Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets

The economic effects of these developments are expected to be sizeable. Our World Economic Outlook ‘reference scenario’ projects that tariffs will reduce both global and emerging market (EM) output gr...

imf.org

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Reposted by Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · Apr 28

New CEPR Discussion Paper - DP20168
Global Networks, Monetary Policy, #Trade
@kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social, Can Soylu, Muhammed A. Yıldırım
Access the paper and accompanying slides free! cepr.org/publications...
#CEPR_IMF #CEPR_ITRE #CEPR_MEF #CEPR_MG

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Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · Apr 23

Work with us at globallinkages.org Be part of our colloborative hub, take part in research, seeking answers to global challenges, promoting evidence based international economic policies for global welfare. Our post-doc and pre-doc positions:
apply.interfolio.com/165825
apply.interfolio.com/166437

Global Linkages Lab

Global Linkages Lab at Brown University

globallinkages.org

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Reposted by Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

NBER @nber.org · Apr 18

Tariffs can be stagflationary in a global general equilibrium setting. The net impact of tariffs on inflation, employment, and the US dollar depends on the policy response of all countries in the trade war, from @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social, Soylu, and Yildirim https://www.nber.org/papers/w33686

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Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · Apr 15

Looking forward! @weatherheadcenter.bsky.social
www.wcfia.harvard.edu/event/specia...

Special Event | Trade and Inflation in a Fragmented World (In Person)

This event is open to the public and will be recorded. Please register below.

www.wcfia.harvard.edu

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Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · Apr 11

We are excited to announce that GLL is now live! www.globallinkages.org
GLL explores globalization—and the costs of trying to undo it. We undertake, fund cutting-edge research, support collaboration, deliver insights to guide evidence based policy making for inclusive global growth and welfare.

Global Linkages Lab

Global Linkages Lab at Brown University

www.globallinkages.org

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Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · Apr 10

In a new paper, we build a new NKOE global network model and decompose the impact of tariffs on inflation, output, and exchange rate into channels of demand, supply, monetary policy, sectoral nominal rigidities, inflation-exchange rate expectations and global I-O linkages channels.

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Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · Apr 10

Tariff-Threats that are later reversed and not implemented are self-defeating, leading to a 4.1\% appreciation of the USD, 0.6pp deflation, a 0.7 pp decline in output. US. Dollar appreciates less or can even depreciate under tariff threats, and increased global uncertainty due to these threats.

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Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · Apr 10

Liberation Day Tariffs+Retalation can lead to a decline of ↓ 1.6 pp in US output, an increase of ↑ 0.8 pp in US inflation and also a USD NEER Appreciation of 4.8%.

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Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · Apr 10

Our new paper builds a NKOE model to study interaction of monetary policy and trade frictions. Tariffs act as demand and supply shocks and lead to endogenous changes in global networks. Their impact depends on monetary policy's endogenous response both in tariff-putting and tariff-imposed countries.

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Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · Apr 2

How do different risk premia for currency, policy and country interact? Which one matters for investors? A key question given increased U.S. policy uncertainty. My op-ed @FT explains : www.ft.com/content/600d...

Markets are reaching for the Turkish risk premium

Technocrats can contain short-term financial panic but only democratic integrity will sustain investor confidence

www.ft.com

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Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · Mar 30

Thank you so much WorldBank and IFC for the launch of this great book and fantastic panel. How to finance firm growth is one of the key issues of our time especially for countries who need this most and suffer from high policy risk, here is the video:
www.ifc.org/en/events/20...

Capital Markets: Financing Firm Growth

Join and explore future World Bank Group collaboration on capital markets development. Delve into the findings of the new book Financing Firm Growth: The Role of Capital Markets in Low- and Middle-Inc...

www.ifc.org

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Reposted by Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

NBER @nber.org · Mar 26

Featured in the latest Digest: "Government Support and Corporate Debt Restructuring"

https://www.nber.org/digest/202503/government-support-and-corporate-debt-restructuring

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Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · Mar 9

Looking forward!

Weatherhead Center for International Affairs @weatherheadcenter.bsky.social · Mar 4

Save the date! On April 16 at 4:30pm, economist @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social will deliver a public lecture on the economic impact of international tariffs and industrial policies under the Trump administration. Event details and registration here: loom.ly/LlN6U3c

Special Event | Trade and Inflation in a Fragmented World (In Person)

This event is open to the public and will be recorded. Please register below.

loom.ly

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Reposted by Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

Brian Nosek @briannosek.bsky.social · Feb 12

Stand Up for Science rallies will be held in DC and state capitals on March 7th. Share with friends. Sign-up here to get email updates with details: www.eventbrite.com/e/stand-up-f...

STAND UP FOR SCIENCE 2025 - DC and NATIONWIDE

Stand up for science with us on March 7th, 2025, because science is for everyone! More info at www.standupforscience2025.org

www.eventbrite.com

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Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · Jan 10

Our work on inflation is cited by 2025 President's Report "robust demand coinciding with massive negative supply shocks put upward pressure on prices (Bernanke and Blanchard; di Giovanni et al.)" whitehouse.gov/cea/written-... We made this point first in 2022 ECB-Sintra (youtube.com/watch?v=Vk5V...)

The 2025 Economic Report of the President | CEA | The White House

Today, the Council of Economic Advisers under the leadership of Chair Jared Bernstein released the 2025 Economic Report of the President, the 79th report since the establishment of CEA in 1946. The 20...

whitehouse.gov

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Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · Jan 3

It is great to talk to amazing @colbylsmith.bsky.social of the @data.ft.com. I will be discussing the macro effects of upcoming tariffs at ASSA2025, during my discussion of the fantastic paper by Gita Gopinath, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Andrea Presbitero and Petia Topalova.
ft.com/content/d6f5...

Donald Trump’s ‘Maganomics’ will damage growth, economists tell FT polls

On both sides of Atlantic, most surveyed claim protectionist shift will overshadow benefits of other policies

ft.com

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Reposted by Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

NBER @nber.org · Dec 26

Using data on Chilean firms to examine whether credit lines and government-backed credit guarantees mitigated the impact of the withdrawal of international capital during the pandemic, from Acosta-Henao, Fernández, Gomez-Gonzalez, and Kalemli-Özcan https://www.nber.org/papers/w33283

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Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · Dec 18

Please submit your papers!
www.nber.org/calls-papers...

Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets

www.nber.org

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Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social · Nov 20

Looking forward to my keynote together with great Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and Sydney Ludvingson and the amazing papers at this fantastic conference on geopolitical fragmentation organized by De Nederlandsche Bank!
www.dnb.nl/en/research/...

2024- The macroeconomic effects of geopolitical uncertainty

21-22 November, 2024 - 27th Annual Research Conference of the Dutch Central Bank

www.dnb.nl

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