Karen Cutter
@karencutter.bsky.social
Actuary. Australian. Mostly Covid. Views are my own.
Here is the same graph for flu (using the same scale as the Covid graph).
There were almost 800 deaths from influenza in 2024, compared with almost 500 in 2023. Note that the "bad" flu year of 2017 had 1,200 deaths, so 2024 is up there.
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There were almost 800 deaths from influenza in 2024, compared with almost 500 in 2023. Note that the "bad" flu year of 2017 had 1,200 deaths, so 2024 is up there.
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March 1, 2025 at 2:40 AM
Here is the same graph for flu (using the same scale as the Covid graph).
There were almost 800 deaths from influenza in 2024, compared with almost 500 in 2023. Note that the "bad" flu year of 2017 had 1,200 deaths, so 2024 is up there.
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There were almost 800 deaths from influenza in 2024, compared with almost 500 in 2023. Note that the "bad" flu year of 2017 had 1,200 deaths, so 2024 is up there.
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The following graph compares deaths from COVID-19 in each month of 2024 to 2023, noting I have included allowance for late-registered deaths.
It looks like there will be just shy of 4,000 deaths from COVID-19 in 2024, compared with 4,600 in 2023.
It looks like there will be just shy of 4,000 deaths from COVID-19 in 2024, compared with 4,600 in 2023.
March 1, 2025 at 2:40 AM
The following graph compares deaths from COVID-19 in each month of 2024 to 2023, noting I have included allowance for late-registered deaths.
It looks like there will be just shy of 4,000 deaths from COVID-19 in 2024, compared with 4,600 in 2023.
It looks like there will be just shy of 4,000 deaths from COVID-19 in 2024, compared with 4,600 in 2023.
I think ED presentations are the most useful stat we have in NSW for being able to compare current to previous waves. Latest NSW health report shows the current wave lower than last year, but unclear if we’ve peaked.
January 10, 2025 at 9:29 PM
I think ED presentations are the most useful stat we have in NSW for being able to compare current to previous waves. Latest NSW health report shows the current wave lower than last year, but unclear if we’ve peaked.
Total deaths from non-COVID-19 respiratory causes were significantly (8%) higher than predicted.
Deaths from all other causes were in line with the prediction, which contrasts with 2021-2023 where deaths for many of these causes were significantly higher than anticipated.
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Deaths from all other causes were in line with the prediction, which contrasts with 2021-2023 where deaths for many of these causes were significantly higher than anticipated.
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December 17, 2024 at 11:26 AM
Total deaths from non-COVID-19 respiratory causes were significantly (8%) higher than predicted.
Deaths from all other causes were in line with the prediction, which contrasts with 2021-2023 where deaths for many of these causes were significantly higher than anticipated.
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Deaths from all other causes were in line with the prediction, which contrasts with 2021-2023 where deaths for many of these causes were significantly higher than anticipated.
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In the 8mths to August, rather than lower levels of mortality than in 2023, Covid-19 has led to about the same level of deaths as 2023 in aggregate, with the winter wave being significantly worse than projected, lasting longer and peaking at higher levels of deaths than predicted.
December 17, 2024 at 11:25 AM
In the 8mths to August, rather than lower levels of mortality than in 2023, Covid-19 has led to about the same level of deaths as 2023 in aggregate, with the winter wave being significantly worse than projected, lasting longer and peaking at higher levels of deaths than predicted.
Actual weekly deaths are mostly within the 95% confidence interval. However, most weeks in June, July and August were above the prediction and this is significant in aggregate for the eight-month period.
December 17, 2024 at 11:23 AM
Actual weekly deaths are mostly within the 95% confidence interval. However, most weeks in June, July and August were above the prediction and this is significant in aggregate for the eight-month period.
Excellent summary, noting the baseline is no longer “assuming no pandemic”.
December 17, 2024 at 11:23 AM
Excellent summary, noting the baseline is no longer “assuming no pandemic”.
My fortune cookie last night. Felt quite apt given the mass X-odus in the last week.
November 18, 2024 at 2:17 AM
My fortune cookie last night. Felt quite apt given the mass X-odus in the last week.
November 15, 2024 at 11:31 AM
ATAGI minutes for Oct have been released, stating “ATAGI recommends using the latest COVID-19 vaccine formulation”. This was before the Pfizer JN.1 vaccine had received TGA approval, but presumably this means it is “ATAGI approved” as soon as supply is available in Australia (expected “late 2024”)
November 15, 2024 at 5:35 AM
ATAGI minutes for Oct have been released, stating “ATAGI recommends using the latest COVID-19 vaccine formulation”. This was before the Pfizer JN.1 vaccine had received TGA approval, but presumably this means it is “ATAGI approved” as soon as supply is available in Australia (expected “late 2024”)
This is what I see (on my phone)
November 15, 2024 at 5:28 AM
This is what I see (on my phone)
After four weeks of not reporting, here is Victoria. Wasn’t such a big limb…
November 15, 2024 at 4:59 AM
After four weeks of not reporting, here is Victoria. Wasn’t such a big limb…
The Australia-wide aged care stats are also showing an increase in recent weeks.
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November 14, 2024 at 10:52 AM
The Australia-wide aged care stats are also showing an increase in recent weeks.
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XEC significant increase in market share
November 14, 2024 at 10:51 AM
XEC significant increase in market share
More substantial increase in test positivity.
November 14, 2024 at 10:50 AM
More substantial increase in test positivity.
Little uptick in reported cases
November 14, 2024 at 10:49 AM
Little uptick in reported cases
Little uptick on ED presentations, but this can wobble around a bit
November 14, 2024 at 10:48 AM
Little uptick on ED presentations, but this can wobble around a bit
This graph shows age std mortality rates. 2024 to date is marginally lower than 2023
November 8, 2024 at 8:09 AM
This graph shows age std mortality rates. 2024 to date is marginally lower than 2023
While the ABS only calculates three year averages, the OECD does its own calculation of individual years and the ABS includes this table. The latest available is for 2022.
Comparing the 2022 table to 2021 shows 1.3 year drop in life expectancy.
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Comparing the 2022 table to 2021 shows 1.3 year drop in life expectancy.
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November 8, 2024 at 7:21 AM
While the ABS only calculates three year averages, the OECD does its own calculation of individual years and the ABS includes this table. The latest available is for 2022.
Comparing the 2022 table to 2021 shows 1.3 year drop in life expectancy.
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Comparing the 2022 table to 2021 shows 1.3 year drop in life expectancy.
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Life expectancy for these three years was lower than for the years 2020-2022. This is because our “good” 2020 year dropped out of the average and 2023 was added - a year with 5% excess mortality compared with pre-pandemic trend.
November 8, 2024 at 7:20 AM
Life expectancy for these three years was lower than for the years 2020-2022. This is because our “good” 2020 year dropped out of the average and 2023 was added - a year with 5% excess mortality compared with pre-pandemic trend.
Total estimated deaths for 2024 using this method gives around 4,200 to 4,300 deaths from covid.
This compares to around 4,600 for 2023.
2024 is estimated to be around 7% lower than 2023.
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This compares to around 4,600 for 2023.
2024 is estimated to be around 7% lower than 2023.
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November 1, 2024 at 7:29 AM
Total estimated deaths for 2024 using this method gives around 4,200 to 4,300 deaths from covid.
This compares to around 4,600 for 2023.
2024 is estimated to be around 7% lower than 2023.
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This compares to around 4,600 for 2023.
2024 is estimated to be around 7% lower than 2023.
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And here is the monthly comparison to 2023.
The 2024 winter wave is about 2 weeks later than the winter 2023 wave.
The dotted points for Oct-Dec assumes that the last three months of 2024 are the same as for 2023 but with a 2-week lag.
The 2024 winter wave is about 2 weeks later than the winter 2023 wave.
The dotted points for Oct-Dec assumes that the last three months of 2024 are the same as for 2023 but with a 2-week lag.
November 1, 2024 at 7:29 AM
And here is the monthly comparison to 2023.
The 2024 winter wave is about 2 weeks later than the winter 2023 wave.
The dotted points for Oct-Dec assumes that the last three months of 2024 are the same as for 2023 but with a 2-week lag.
The 2024 winter wave is about 2 weeks later than the winter 2023 wave.
The dotted points for Oct-Dec assumes that the last three months of 2024 are the same as for 2023 but with a 2-week lag.
Here are monthly deaths to 30 September 2024, including coroner-referred deaths and my estimate of late reports. (The ABS publishes the Aug and Sept monthly numbers, but not the weekly ones.)
November 1, 2024 at 7:28 AM
Here are monthly deaths to 30 September 2024, including coroner-referred deaths and my estimate of late reports. (The ABS publishes the Aug and Sept monthly numbers, but not the weekly ones.)
Here are weekly deaths up until 28 July 2024, for doctor certified deaths only.
First 30 weeks of 2024 = approx. 2,700 deaths
First 30 weeks of 2023 = 3,090 deaths.
2024 13% lower than 2023.
First 30 weeks of 2024 = approx. 2,700 deaths
First 30 weeks of 2023 = 3,090 deaths.
2024 13% lower than 2023.
November 1, 2024 at 7:27 AM
Here are weekly deaths up until 28 July 2024, for doctor certified deaths only.
First 30 weeks of 2024 = approx. 2,700 deaths
First 30 weeks of 2023 = 3,090 deaths.
2024 13% lower than 2023.
First 30 weeks of 2024 = approx. 2,700 deaths
First 30 weeks of 2023 = 3,090 deaths.
2024 13% lower than 2023.
Simplified flowchart.
November 24, 2023 at 8:00 PM
Simplified flowchart.