Katie Schmuecker
@katieschmuecker.bsky.social
5.5K followers 640 following 300 posts
Principal Policy Adviser at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation - UK poverty, social policy, politics, research and data. Occasionally crochet, gigs and nature
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katieschmuecker.bsky.social
📣 New JRF analysis: just relying on growth won’t reduce child poverty.

By 2029 (end parliament) only Scotland will see poverty falling, largely due to social security changes.

A credible UK child poverty strategy would end the two-child limit & ensure people on UC can afford essentials
jrf-uk.bsky.social
4.3 million children are in poverty

UK govt won’t see progress on child poverty by 2029 even with high economic growth 📢

Our analysis shows under our central scenario only Scotland will see child poverty rates fall by 2029 in part due to social security policies 1/5
Reposted by Katie Schmuecker
jrf-uk.bsky.social
Around 1 in 4 children in Scotland are living in poverty.

Poverty remains far too high, and people are feeling overlooked and ignored by politicians.

The next Scottish Parliament is an opportunity to build a better future for all children in Scotland. 🔽 1/4
Around 1 in 4 children in Scotland are in poverty. On top of this writing are four children running, part of a saltire and the logo - JRF, Scottish Election.
katieschmuecker.bsky.social
Without action families with children will see their disposable income fall over this parliament. Couples with children £750 worse off, lone parents £780.That’s electorally perilous.

Scrapping the 2 child limit and creating a minimum floor in universal credit would offset the fall.
katieschmuecker.bsky.social
Our new analysis shows removing the 2 child limit improves average disposable income for families, as well as reducing poverty- but combining with a floor in Universal Credit turbo charges the impact.

🤓 read more here

bsky.app/profile/sam-...
sam-tims.bsky.social
In new @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis with @katieschmuecker.bsky.social we show how cost-effective improvements to social security can quickly improve the living standards outlook for families

Scrapping the two-child limit and creating an income floor in Universal Credit would make a real difference
katieschmuecker.bsky.social
Charities seeking to ensure every child gets the best start in life have one clear priority for Labour conference
Billboard reading “wasn’t the point of winning to lift kids out of poverty? Scrap the two child limit”
katieschmuecker.bsky.social
The Chancellor spoke of tearing down barriers for young people.

New @jrf_uk analysis shows removing the 2 child limit & creating a safety net within UC will alter the course of declining average disposable incomes for families with children as well as reducing child poverty ⬇️
sam-tims.bsky.social
In new @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis with @katieschmuecker.bsky.social we show how cost-effective improvements to social security can quickly improve the living standards outlook for families

Scrapping the two-child limit and creating an income floor in Universal Credit would make a real difference
katieschmuecker.bsky.social
Without action, by the end of the parliament disposable incomes (after housing costs) will be on average £570 lower per year than today.

For those in the bottom third of incomes, the fall will be £1,110 per year ⬇️
jrf-uk.bsky.social
We're on track for a decade of decline in families’ disposables incomes by the end of the parliament. But this is not inevitable.

The gov can introduce targeted policies like investing in social security, and interventions in key areas like housing and energy.

Listen on @lbc.co.uk 🔽
Reposted by Katie Schmuecker
jrf-uk.bsky.social
We're on track for a decade of decline in families’ disposables incomes by the end of the parliament. But this is not inevitable.

The gov can introduce targeted policies like investing in social security, and interventions in key areas like housing and energy.

Listen on @lbc.co.uk 🔽
Reposted by Katie Schmuecker
iainkporter.bsky.social
New DWP data today shows 123,000 families – including 103,000 (over 4 in 5) with children – had their Universal Credit reduced by the benefit cap in May 2025.

This eats into UC’s already inadequate basic rate, pulling it further below what’s needed to afford life's essentials. 1/6
Image of DWP chart showing proportion of UC capped households by number of children, Great Britain, May 2025. It shows households with 2 or 3 children are the most common family sizes (34% and 27% respectively). The least common family sizes are 5 or more children (7%) and one child (9%). There were 18% of households capped in UC without children.
katieschmuecker.bsky.social
Child poverty is currently projected to rise this parliament, creating both moral & political problems.

The most cost effective way to get it falling is to remove the two child limit & introduce a protected minimum floor in universal credit, to limit losses from the benefit cap.
katieschmuecker.bsky.social
Polling shows the public expects Labour to tackle poverty, but 60% say they’re going the wrong direction on the cost of living and hardship.

Labour’s Deputy Leadership candidates are right to make child poverty central to their campaigns.
Bar graph showing 60% think the government is going in the wrong direction on the cost of living and hardship, vs 17% saying right direction. 23% don’t know. Poll conducted by more in common in March 2025.
katieschmuecker.bsky.social
Estimated 7m households not claiming benefits they are entitled to. Missing out on support makes the cost of living crisis even harder to cope with.

Deven is right: low awareness, high complexity and stigma all part of the explanation.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Millions missing out on benefits and government support, analysis suggests
A report from Policy in Practice says awareness, complexity and stigma are the main barriers stopping people claiming.
www.bbc.co.uk
Reposted by Katie Schmuecker
iainkporter.bsky.social
Govt dropped cuts to PIP, but today's Committee report highlights MPs' concerns that many disabled people will be pushed into poverty by remaining cuts to Universal Credit's health element. In evidence to the inquiry I warned of the hardship this will cause. 1/5

www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Tens of thousands at risk of poverty despite Labour’s benefit U-turn, MPs warn
Changes to welfare reforms not enough to protect newly sick and disabled people from financial hardship
www.theguardian.com
katieschmuecker.bsky.social
The Prime Minister told senior MPs today he wants to reduce child poverty this parliament

The most cost effective way to do that is to end the two child limit and take action on the benefit cap - actions that also target help to families in deep poverty. Read more ⬇️

www.jrf.org.uk/child-povert...
Three policies to reduce child poverty this parliament
This briefing sets out which children are at greatest risk of such severe and acute poverty, and what a child poverty strategy must include to address it.
www.jrf.org.uk
katieschmuecker.bsky.social
Tackling these two policies is the most cost effective way to get child poverty falling this parliament. They are needed for a successful child poverty strategy.

Read more about our policy ideas - and how to pay for them - here: www.jrf.org.uk/child-povert...
Three policies to reduce child poverty this parliament
This briefing sets out which children are at greatest risk of such severe and acute poverty, and what a child poverty strategy must include to address it.
www.jrf.org.uk
katieschmuecker.bsky.social
Ending the two child limit and & limiting the impact of the benefit cap with a protected minimum floor in UC would lift 500,000 children out of poverty & reduce its depth for a further 1m by the end of the parliament.

Failure to act will see poverty rise this parliament.
katieschmuecker.bsky.social
The latest @jrf-uk.bsky.social cost of living tracker (May 2025) reveals the depth of hardship among low income families with 3+ children
🛑Almost 9 in 10 (88%) went without essentials in the previous 6 months
🛑 8 in 10 (82%) were in arrears
🛑7 in 10 (71%) held a loan taken out to pay for essentials.
katieschmuecker.bsky.social
New from DWP:

📣Over 1.6m children impacted by the 2 child limit in Apr 2025

This policy that leaves families with 3+ children struggling when they hit hard times.

It is driving up child poverty, leaving families going without essentials and hindering children's prospects
katieschmuecker.bsky.social
They do, and there is a welcome increase to the Standard Allowance of UC of around £260 per year in 2029/30. But for new claimants the health element is being halved, making around 700,000 people £3,000 per year worse off. For sick and disabled people UC is being cut.
katieschmuecker.bsky.social
Around 50,000 people will be pushed into poverty by the Government's cuts to Universal Credit for sick and disabled people.

Following publication of the Green Paper @jrf-uk.bsky.social highlighted the sleight of hand in the poverty impact analysis. The same applies to the latest version ⬇️
iainkporter.bsky.social
Actually around 50,000 people will be pulled into poverty by remaining cuts in Bill - based on Govt’s impact assessments. @jrf-uk.bsky.social previously showed how DWP sleight of hand underplayed true poverty impact – same applies to this latest publication. 🧵1/3

www.theguardian.com/society/2025...
Welfare bill will now lift 50,000 out of poverty after U-turns, assessment finds
Revised bill passed after UK government rowed back on cuts will mean fewer rather than more people in relative poverty in 2030
www.theguardian.com
katieschmuecker.bsky.social
Important corrective - even in their much altered form, the Government's disability cuts still increase poverty.
pollardtom.bsky.social
This is nonsense. The impact assessment starts from an imaginary baseline incorporating reforms planned but never implemented by the previous government

In the real world, the cuts that remain in the Bill will push around 50,000 disabled people into poverty www.theguardian.com/society/2025...
Welfare bill will now lift 50,000 out of poverty after U-turns, assessment finds
Revised bill passed after UK government rowed back on cuts will mean fewer rather than more people in relative poverty in 2030
www.theguardian.com
katieschmuecker.bsky.social
She calls for:
▪️an end to the 2 child limit in universal credit
▪️social security that covers essential costs
▪️a time limit on B&B style temporary accommodation
▪️free bus travel
▪️automatic enrolment for free school meals where eligible.

📖 read more www.childrenscommissioner.gov.uk/resource/gro...
Growing up in a low-income family: Children's experiences | Children's Commissioner for England
This report should not have to exist. Shining a light on children’s experiences of poverty in 2025, in one of the wealthiest countries in the world,
www.childrenscommissioner.gov.uk